what next?

[Will M]

Now that we have a shortstop what else does WK need to do this offseason?
Assuming no big blockbuster trade here is what I see:

1. Trade LaRue ( my preference ) or Ross. I don't want to see 3 catchers next year.

2. Help at 1B.
Even if Votto is ready a righty hitter who can play 1B is needed.
We could rest the rookie against some tough lefties.
If Votto isn't ready then the righty hitter would platoon with Hatteberg.
Ideally someone who can play other positions ( Aurillia?, Craig Wilson? ).
That way if Votto is ready the righty hitter could get some playing time elsewhere.

3. Freel is the odd man out with the signing of AG. Here are my thoughts on Freel. I don't think Griffey can hit lefties well so right now we need a righty hitter in RF vs a lefty pitcher ( ~40 games ). Play Griffey vs righties ( ~120 games ). I would look at Craig Wilson or someone similar { via trade }.
If Votto looks ready in spring training then Freel could be trade bait.
If Votto doesn't look ready then we keep Freel to play RF vs lefties and fill in as a supersub 2-3 times a week. { with the Craig Wilson type platooning at 1B with Hatteberg }.

4. Our late inning defense ( Castro at 3rd replacing EE and Crosby-Deno-Freel in the OF ) is great. We have two nice relievers who can pitch the 8th ( Bray and Coffey ). What we need is a closer. Both Bray & especially Coffey didn't look comfortable pitching the 9th last year.

5. Harang & Arroyo are a good 1/2 punch. We have several guys who look like 4/5 ( Milton, EZ, Lohse ). We have the games #1 pitching prospect but he won't start in Cinci and will certainly be on pitch/innings counts.
Without a #3 starter ( and a closer ) it will be tough to make the playoffs in 2007. 2006 was a mirage with the .500 Reds in the playoff hunt.
Most years it takes 90 ( or usually 95 ) wins to see the postseason.

Thoughts?

- Will

[reds44]

2. Aurilia isn't coming back. We do need a RH 1B though.
3. Don't trade Freel. He'll be nice to have when Griffey gets hurt.

[mth123]

I agree on all points. Trade Freel for a Starter. Trade Lohse. Trade Larue. Trade Majewski if needed. Sign a RH 1B and an OF with RH Power.

[M2]

If I had to keep one non-Arroyo/Harang from this year's starting staff in the rotation it would be Lohse. He shouldn't be relied to be more than a #4 starter, which means Krivsky needs to go out and get someone who can do better, but he'll be pitching for a contract this season and that might spur him to a career year.

Eric Milton's the guy who needs to go. I'm a lot more comfortable with paying him to pitch elsewhere than to pitch for the Reds.

I agree with only bringing back two catchers and shopping Freel. I still maintain the Sheffield trade and the price inflation we're seeing in the market makes Jr. a moveable commodity (if you can convince him to go).

I want more power at 1B and I don't care if it's RH or LH.

I wouldn't shop for a closer, or at least not for an established one. Heck, make Lohse the closer.

[Topcat]

I agree on all points. Trade Freel for a Starter. Trade Lohse. Trade Larue. Trade Majewski if needed. Sign a RH 1B and an OF with RH Power.

Just curious what kind of starter is possible of being acquired for Freel. I am not minimizing his ability's but I just don't see it unless it is a prospect we just hand over the 5th spot in the rotation.

[mth123]

Just curious what kind of starter is possible of being acquired for Freel. I am not minimizing his ability's but I just don't see it unless it is a prospect we just hand over the 5th spot in the rotation.

I'm thinking of some one with upside who looks like a good move. I don't really want anyone's run of the mill number 3 starter because they just about all stink as bad as what we have. At this point lots of teams are looking for lead-off types for CF. Freel at $1.75 Million is very attractive. SF is about to pay 3 years/$30 Million for Juan Pierre. Other than Pierre's consecutive game streak, Freel is a better player in every way. Better OBP, More Power, same speed skills and similar defense. Others on the market include Gary Matthews JR (1 year wonder?), Dave Roberts (in decline), Darin Erstad (injury Inc.) and Steve Finley (retirement calls). I think Freel is a better bet than any of these guys. The only CF on the market better than Freel is JD Drew. He can only go to one team. Coco Crisp may hit the market as well. I'd rather have him than Freel. But for Crisp to go on the market Drew goes to the Red Sox. Still only one team gets a better option.

I'm not saying trade Freel because he stinks. I'm saying trade him because he is now relegated to the OF taking away his versatility value, he's on the wrong side of 30 and as a 4th OF who will frequently sub for Griffey (in RF I assume), I want a power player in that role. Freel has a lot of value but less to the Reds now than what some other team that is willing to use him correctly will value him. To get full value out of him, he needs to be traded for comparable worth in an area of need. Some potential deals that illustrate the type I'm thinking of. (I'm not predicting here).

With SF I'd try to make a deal centering on Kevin Correia and Scott Munter for him. Maybe the Reds throw in a Pelland or something along those lines. Maybe it takes a pen arm like Maj as well. SF is also looking for a catcher. Matheny may be done due to concussion after effects.

The Cubs are also looking. I'd be interested in Carlos Marmol and Mike Wuertz. I'd give them Freel and Lohse in that deal. Maybe the Reds can get Murton as a RH 4th OF too.

Colorado is looking to move Jason Jennings and is looking for a CF that can lead-off and cover the big OF. They'd want more than Freel but a package including Freel and Wood might get it done. They also want LH relief (the Reds have a lot).

The White Sox want a CF to lead-off and replace Podsednik. They are looking to dump a big contract pitcher to make room for Brandon McCarthy. Freel for Freddy Garcia? The Sox save about $8 Million. Maybe that would work. You don't often solve a problem and save money at the same time. Sox just may be willing. Sox are looking for a back-up catcher too. Maybe they take Larue to even out the $ a little and fill that hole.

The Braves are looking to dump Horacio Ramirez. They want a Lead-off hitter. They are going to trade Giles with no replacement and they may be willing to use a different guy in LF against lefties. They could play Freel at 2B some and in LF against LH pitchers. He'd solve the lead-off problem. Heck I'd think the Reds should ask for Ramirez and Matt Diaz for Freel - the Braves would be saving $. Diaz could be the RH 1B and play some in the OF. He has real power.

Toronto could use Freel. They have Aaron Hill now going back to SS with the Reds getting Gonzalez and they have an open spot at 2B. They also could use some OF help with Catalonotto leaving. Freel would be a good CF fall back if the rumors of Wells going in a blockbuster with the Angels occur. Toronto isn't as good a match because there is no starter available to my knowledge that really interests me, but Brandon League, Jeremey Accardo, etc look interesting from the pen. They also need a catcher and would probably be interested in a Lohse for the back of the rotation.

Those are some ideas. Freel is real marketable and should be the Reds next move IMO. Right now while the other CF asking price is sky high is the time to take advantage. If those prices fall a little, so will Freel's market value.

[mth123]

If I had to keep one non-Arroyo/Harang from this year's starting staff in the rotation it would be Lohse. He shouldn't be relied to be more than a #4 starter, which means Krivsky needs to go out and get someone who can do better, but he'll be pitching for a contract this season and that might spur him to a career year.

Eric Milton's the guy who needs to go. I'm a lot more comfortable with paying him to pitch elsewhere than to pitch for the Reds.

I agree with only bringing back two catchers and shopping Freel. I still maintain the Sheffield trade and the price inflation we're seeing in the market makes Jr. a moveable commodity (if you can convince him to go).

I want more power at 1B and I don't care if it's RH or LH.

I wouldn't shop for a closer, or at least not for an established one. Heck, make Lohse the closer.

I don't think Milton can be moved now because of the surgery. I still think you could get out of paying much of that money by hanging on to him as the #5 and get a prospect next season for him. I'd move Lohse. I kind of agree with your thinking but if the Reds can bring in a guy for the #3 spot (see my earlier post) Lohse could be moved. With the price of pitching today Lohse may bring back something very useful.

I would love for the Reds to get a power hitter at 1B and I really believe its the biggest need on this team. When you look around most teams starting pitching is in worse shape than the Reds. From a competitive standpoint the Reds are at a bigger diasadvantage at 1B than even the starting rotation. Most teams do have a guy who can hit at 1B. I just don't think it will happen. If I really thought there was a chance, I'd talk to Luis Gonzalez about playing there for a year. His 52 Doubles would look pretty good. Cincy and AZ are comparable for hitting. Some of those doubles may be homers in GABP. I'd go $7 or $8 Million for a year and then let Votto take over. I wouldn't trade much for one with Votto on the way, but would do a 1 year deal for some one to bridge the gap. Not many available on the market. Probably needs to be an OF who is moved there, hence the Luis suggestion.

I kind of think having a named closer makes everyone else in the pen pitch better. I really think having established roles and sticking to them is the way to get good innings out of these guys. Narron's biggest problem was that he didn't know how to do that. I agree completely though that I wouldn't trade for an established one. Just get a couple live arms and name one closer in spring training.

[Ltlabner]

I would love for the Reds to get a power hitter at 1B and I really believe its the biggest need on this team. When you look around most teams starting pitching is in worse shape than the Reds. From a competitive standpoint the Reds are at a bigger diasadvantage at 1B than even the starting rotation.

I don't see how you can say most other teams starting rotation is in worse shape when our #3,4,5 guys right now appear to be Milton, Loshe and EZ. My support of Milton last year was based on paying him to pitch against us or just flushing his contract. That doesn't mean I think he's a great pitcher.

I'd much rather have one, if possible (but probably unlikely), two more solid starters and live with Milton as your #5 in the last year of his contact. Loshe and EZ might be trade bait or might even be considered for the bullpen.

A named closer would be nice but I think that it might be better to wait until after the feeding frenzy is over.

If they nail down starting pitching and pull off moving Deno to CF and Jr to RF, then a power hitting 1B would be the next step IMO.

[Highlifeman21]

If I had to keep one non-Arroyo/Harang from this year's starting staff in the rotation it would be Lohse. He shouldn't be relied to be more than a #4 starter, which means Krivsky needs to go out and get someone who can do better, but he'll be pitching for a contract this season and that might spur him to a career year.

Eric Milton's the guy who needs to go. I'm a lot more comfortable with paying him to pitch elsewhere than to pitch for the Reds.

I agree with only bringing back two catchers and shopping Freel. I still maintain the Sheffield trade and the price inflation we're seeing in the market makes Jr. a moveable commodity (if you can convince him to go).

I want more power at 1B and I don't care if it's RH or LH.

I wouldn't shop for a closer, or at least not for an established one. Heck, make Lohse the closer.

Oddly enough, I agree. Lohse confuses me. He's shown signs of not what I'd consider greatness, but rather a level of being acceptable, and then he's been downright Milton-esque. Very much Jekyl and Hyde. I think he has the stuff to be our closer, since for whatever reason I think he has some of the best stuff on our team, as scary as that may seem. I'm not sure he has the mindset to be a closer, but we'll never know until we try. Coffey proved he's not a closer last year, and I'm sick of giving Weathers the ball in that role, and EG's arm is duct-taped on at this point.

[mth123]

I don't see how you can say most other teams starting rotation is in worse shape when our #3,4,5 guys right now appear to be Milton, Loshe and EZ. My support of Milton last year was based on paying him to pitch against us or just flushing his contract. That doesn't mean I think he's a great pitcher.

Simple really. When you look around almost every team has crummy guys like our crummy guys in the 3 4 and 5 spot. Last year there were only 47 pitchers that threw 180 innings and posted an ERA less than 4.50. That means that about two-thirds of the rotation spots in baseball (103 out of 150 actually) are filled by guys like our 3, 4 and 5 guys. So from the perspective of competing with everyone else it isn't really a huge disadvantage (not that we shouldn't still grab at least 1 better starter). Add in that our top two were two of the top 19 starting pitchers in baseball (out of 150 slots) last year that makes the Reds starting pitching better than a lot of teams.

But most teams do have a good bat at 1B making Hat a huge disadvantage as compared to the competition.

Edit: If you drop the pitching criteria down to 160 IP and less than 4.80 ERA you get 58 Pitchers. That represents 38.666% of the starting spots in baeball. Since Harang and Arroyo represent 40% of the starting spots in Cincy you see where I'm coming from. Sorted by ERA Arroyo was 7th and Harang was 20th. Number 58 was Paul Malhom with an ERA of 4.76 in 176 Innings.

[Will M]

1. i do expect Lohse to have a big year ( due to his pending free agency ) but i would certainly move him in the right deal. Milton can't be traded until he proves he is healthy. EZ i would keep. if he is healthy & isn't a one year wonder then he is better than Lohse/Milton because he is youger and cheaper.

2. Majik, Cormier & Belisle are also tradable in the right deal. They all strike me as 6th/7th inning relievers whereas Bray & Coffey are 8th inning relievers.

3. Trading Jr is so problematic ( 10/5, PR hit, contract, etc ) that it deserves its own thread.

4. Once we signed AG to play SS I can't see us trading Dunn. We need the offense.

5. mth123 said " I'm not saying trade Freel because he stinks. I'm saying trade him because he is now relegated to the OF taking away his versatility value, he's on the wrong side of 30 and as a 4th OF who will frequently sub for Griffey (in RF I assume), I want a power player in that role. Freel has a lot of value but less to the Reds now than what some other team that is willing to use him correctly will value him. To get full value out of him, he needs to be traded for comparable worth in an area of need. "

I agree 100%.

6. If we want to make the playoffs we have to upgrade the pitching.
We don't need five Chris Carpenters & five Mariano Riveras but we have too many generic pitchers.
I would count Arroyo, Harang, Coffey & Bray as being as above average.
Bailey obviously has great potential.
Lohse,Milton,EZ,Claussen,Belisle,Cormier & Majik are average/below average.

7. Anyone acquired in a trade needs to be cheap with upside ( remember we are a small market team ).

- Will