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Thread: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds

  1. #211
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds

    As I said wayyy back on Page 5, I'd have definitely preferred two years instead of three years, and while I'm not happy about a three year deal, I can tolerate it. I'm confident that Gonzalez's glove assets will outweigh his liability with the bat, and I'd put his overall net run value relative to other shortstops at about 5-10 runs in the plus range per season. Shortstop is one of the few positions where I'm willing to sacrifice some offensive punch for exceptional defense.

    Of course, that comes with the caveat that the traditional offense-heavy positions are just that, offense-heavy ...

    First, it is absolutely imperative that #3 is moved out of center field next season. A defensive trio of Gonzalez at shortstop, Phillips at second base, and Denorfia in center field could post as high as a +25 net run value defensively per season over the average defensive performers. That trio has the capability to be a massive asset collectively for up-the-middle defense, and that part of the field would be known as the place where hits go to die.

    However, if Griffey is in center field, the trio of Gonzalez at shortstop, Phillips at second base, and Griffey in center field would collectively be below average defensively.

    Yes, Ken Griffey, Jr. is that bad defensively as a center fielder.

    Second, assume that Griffey is moved out of center field and Denorfia is inserted for his glove. Now while the trio of Gonzo-Phillips-Denorfia would likely be among the best, if not the best, up-the-middle gloves in all of baseball, their collective offensive punch would likely be below average relative to their positions. Denorfia projects to be average, Gonzalez below average, and while people may be high on Brandon Phillips offensively, that .287 post All-Star Break on-base percentage and his complete inability to take a walk means that we absolutely cannot rely on him for anything more than average production offensively relative to other second basemen. In short, all that means that the traditional offense-heavy positions of 1B, 3B, LF, and RF need to produce with the bat, otherwise the team just simply won't score enough runs throughout the season to go anywhere.

    Dunn will produce in left field, and Encarnacion should be a sure-fire bet to produce at third base. Griffey in right field, due to both his decline and injury potential, is a massive question mark. Hatteberg at first base on a full-time basis projects to be nothing less than a massive liability offensively. As was discussed last night, the Reds are a slugger short of being able to score enough runs. We need four sluggers, but really only have two-and-a-half (Griffey counts as the half due to age/injuries).

    If the team can find a stopgap slugger to play first base in place of Hatteberg until Votto is ready - or a corner outfielder and bump Dunn or Griffey to first base until Votto is ready - then we'd have a nice combination of offense and fielding defense spread out through our regular position players.

    Unfortunately, without that additional slugger, I fear the offensive punch of this team just won't accomplish the job.
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  3. #212
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds

    I like it. This team needed to get better defensively, and it just did. Hopefully we move Deno to CF and Griffey to RF, if not sign an OF bat.

    GABP will inflate Sea Bass' offensive numbers.

    We now have the best defensive MIF in baseball.

  4. #213
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds???

    Quote Originally Posted by vaticanplum View Post
    Shortstop is the one non-pitching position on this team that desperately needs to be filled and cannot be done so internally. And good fielding is always going to help, particularly when it could, as other have noted, back up groundball pitchers, which is something that everyone's been screaming that the Reds need since GABP opened. Of course I agree that the Reds need to address their pitching problem. But I don't think that one off-season=addressing a single deficiency, and we're a whopping three or four weeks into the offseason with the winter meetings still to come.

    Fixing the shortstop problem would take care of a lot defensively in one sweeping move, not only because it gives you a crucial good glove there, but because it solidifies Phillips at second and Freel in the outfield (where I think he belongs). If the Reds were to throw a GG-type at first or left field, I'd think they still have a lot of work to do defensively, and they'd likely still have an offense problem too. Throw in a good glove at shortstop, and I think they're pretty much set defensively (apart from moving Griffey over, but that's still an internal issue). Yes, I'd like the Reds to have more power. But if the defense problem is taken care of, they can work on that and bring in any kind of bat they want without worrying too much about what he does on defense.

    And I personally don't think anyone will end up comparing Gonzalez or his contract to Clayton or Milton.
    SS definitely needs to be addressed, but this team is not a SS away. I think this solidifies the new era in Cincy: Defense, defense, defense. Between the Stubbs #1 pick of last year and now throwing $5 mil per at a guy who struggles at the plate, say goodbye to the hitting days of yesteryear. But a good defensive SS will not make this pitching staff that much better. Especially in GABP.

    Personally, I think the new FO has been extremely short sighted in it's almost year long tenure. Some of the questions I have are as follows:

    1) First and foremost, if this team believes they can contend in the extremely near future, then they need to spend a lot of money. Fast. At least two good starting pitchers and one or two more arms in the bullpen. Add in a power bat in the OF. If they aren't ready to do this in the next year or so, then what is the point of some of these signings?

    2) Here's the part that kills me. While reading the latest BA, they had noted that "It's zero coincidence that the two teams having the best drafts in 2006 are the two richest teams: Boston and the NYY." They noted numerous players who dropped in the draft b/c of bonus demands and were scooped up and signed by either team in the later rounds. Examples are Lars Anderson, Ty Weeden and Dellin Betances. Now my problem is as follows: Players like Alex Gonzalez and Hatteberg aren't guys who help a team make a leap...they fill in a last remaining one or two holes for teams who has the other positions filled. Think about this...would you rather have Votto as the incoming starting 1st baseman and Betances (taken in the 7th or 8th round for $1 million) or Hatteberg starting this year? Or trying out BP at SS and having an extra $5 million a year for the next 3 years to use on either other positions or in the draft?

    WK needs to spend his money a little more wisely. Believe me, no one, and I mean NO ONE, will like this contract some the summer. Especially this board. He had an OBP under .300 last year. That is flat out pathetic. This will be an albatross of the likes of LaRue and Milton. Quote me.

  5. #214
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post
    As I said wayyy back on Page 5, I'd have definitely preferred two years instead of three years, and while I'm not happy about a three year deal, I can tolerate it. I'm confident that Gonzalez's glove assets will outweigh his liability with the bat, and I'd put his overall net run value relative to other shortstops at about 5-10 runs in the plus range. Shortstop is one of the few positions where I'm willing to sacrifice some offensive punch for exceptional defense.

    Of course, that comes with the caveat that the traditional offense-heavy positions are just that, offense-heavy ...

    First, it is absolutely imperative that #3 is moved out of center field next season. A defensive trio of Gonzalez at shortstop, Phillips at second base, and Denorfia in center field could post as high as a +25 net run value defensively over the average defensive performers. That trio has the capability to be a massive asset collectively for up-the-middle defense, and that part of the field would be known as the place where hits go to die.

    However, if Griffey is in center field, the trio of Gonzalez at shortstop, Phillips at second base, and Griffey in center field would collectively be below average defensively.

    Yes, Ken Griffey, Jr. is that bad defensively as a center fielder.

    Second, assume that Griffey is moved out of center field and Denorfia is inserted for his glove. Now while the trio of Gonzo-Phillips-Denorfia would likely be among the best, if not the best, up-the-middle gloves in all of baseball, their collective offensive punch would likely be below average relative to their positions. Denorfia projects to be average, Gonzalez below average, and while people may be high on Brandon Phillips offensively, that .287 post All-Star Break on-base percentage and his complete inability to take a walk means that we absolutely cannot rely on him for anything more than average production offensively relative to other second basemen. In short, all that means that the traditional offense-heavy positions of 1B, 3B, LF, and RF need to produce with the bat, otherwise the team just simply won't score enough runs throughout the season to go anywhere.

    Dunn will produce in left field, and Encarnacion should be a sure-fire bet to produce at third base. Griffey in right field, due to both his decline and injury potential, is a massive question mark. Hatteberg at first base on a full-time basis projects to be nothing less than a massive liability offensively. As was discussed last night, the Reds are a slugger short of being able to score enough runs. We need four sluggers, but really only have two-and-a-half (Griffey counts as the half due to age/injuries).

    If the team can found a stopgap slugger to play first base in place of Hatteberg until Votto is ready - or a corner outfielder and bump Dunn or Griffey to first base until Votto is ready - then we'd have a nice combination of offense and fielding defense spread out through our regular position players.

    Unfortunately, without that additional slugger, I fear the offensive punch of this team just won't accomplish the job.

    I think this is a pretty fair assessment. I'd still make a move to strengthen shortstop defense if I'm rebuilding.

    Cincinnati has a history of great shortstops. Looks like all we're getting this time is the great defense, but this is filling a big need and he'll make an excellent cornerstone.

    None of the offseason moves are made in a vacuum. You can't get the complete picture until the roster is set and the team heads north after spring training.
    "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."
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  6. #215
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds

    Cyclone I agree with you 100%, I think with this signing you will see us try to acquire a guy that can play 1b/of to platoon with Griffey and Hatteberg. I think guys that fit into that current category are in order of prefrence are:
    1)Craig Wilson
    2)Kevin Millar
    3)Eduardo Perez

    These guys would provide a little more pop at the corner positions in a platoon role, and would still allow us to acquire pitching help.

  7. #216
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds

    I'm not thrilled with this.

    Now I'm not dumb enough to not realize the incredible defensive suckitude from the SS position, but you have to look at the larger picture here.

    Jerry Narron is still the manager. The same man that hit Dunn anywhere from 2nd to 6th. The man with an unhealthy infatuation towards Ryan Franklin. Narron is a factor, and Gonzales has some speed. We will see him hit second at some point. maybe even lead off.

    oy.

    This regime seems intent at throwing as many possible combinations of players at positions as possible. I think it's because they have no clue as to how to evaluate talent.

    And this signing tells me Kyle Lohse is still in the rotation.

    double oy.

    This is off the wall, but I wonder if Pokey Reese's bank account is getting low? From a purely talent standpoint, he'd have been cheaper than Gonzales, and off equal defensive ability.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  8. #217
    Mon chou Choo vaticanplum's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post
    First, it is absolutely imperative that #3 is moved out of center field next season. A defensive trio of Gonzalez at shortstop, Phillips at second base, and Denorfia in center field could post as high as a +25 net run value defensively per season over the average defensive performers. That trio has the capability to be a massive asset collectively for up-the-middle defense, and that part of the field would be known as the place where hits go to die.
    Oh my god, that just made me dizzy.

    Do the right thing, Wayne (and Junior). Right field is supersexy! Come on!!!
    There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.

  9. #218
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds

    I don't think you can draw many conclusions from this concerning other moves. We have folks predicting the entire off-season based on this one move. I don't think anyone knows what else Krivsky will do.

    If you want to speculate, however, it seems Krivsky is entirely focused on the defensive side of things. This is why he traded Lopez in the first place. He didn't want him in the infield.

    So we can guess that he won't let Griffey be the centerfielder next year. And we can speculate that he will add pitching.

    If Krivsky goes this route, the Reds will be short on offense. They will eventually have to beef up first base (Votto or better) and, if Dunn or Griffey don't get back on track, replace them with offensive guys. But under Kriv, my guess is that shortstop, second base and centerfield are defensive territory.

  10. #219
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds

    Sounds like the offenses potential hinges on Joey Votto..............

  11. #220
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Aronchis View Post
    Sounds like the offenses potential hinges on Joey Votto..............
    Actually, if you look at the corners as the offensive positions, some restructuring is in order. Dunn, Votto and Griff hit lefty. Only EE is righty. Right now, the Reds seriously need another right handed hitter. Ross/Phillips/Gonzo are not middle order hitters.

    Possibly, the Reds will add a centerfielder who hits righty but it is hard to believe they will spend enough to get a top bat/top glove guy in that spot. More likely a defensive type or the Deno/Freel duo will man centerfield.

    So even with Votto (even with Bruce, another lefty) the Reds at some point will have to add a strong righty hitter.

    No doubt, the team is still a long way from being a balanced, solid team. But I do believe the Reds' model of home run hitters and little else had to be scrapped since it wasn't producing wins.

  12. #221
    GR8NESS WMR's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post
    As I said wayyy back on Page 5, I'd have definitely preferred two years instead of three years, and while I'm not happy about a three year deal, I can tolerate it. I'm confident that Gonzalez's glove assets will outweigh his liability with the bat, and I'd put his overall net run value relative to other shortstops at about 5-10 runs in the plus range per season. Shortstop is one of the few positions where I'm willing to sacrifice some offensive punch for exceptional defense.

    Of course, that comes with the caveat that the traditional offense-heavy positions are just that, offense-heavy ...

    First, it is absolutely imperative that #3 is moved out of center field next season. A defensive trio of Gonzalez at shortstop, Phillips at second base, and Denorfia in center field could post as high as a +25 net run value defensively per season over the average defensive performers. That trio has the capability to be a massive asset collectively for up-the-middle defense, and that part of the field would be known as the place where hits go to die.

    However, if Griffey is in center field, the trio of Gonzalez at shortstop, Phillips at second base, and Griffey in center field would collectively be below average defensively.

    Yes, Ken Griffey, Jr. is that bad defensively as a center fielder.

    Second, assume that Griffey is moved out of center field and Denorfia is inserted for his glove. Now while the trio of Gonzo-Phillips-Denorfia would likely be among the best, if not the best, up-the-middle gloves in all of baseball, their collective offensive punch would likely be below average relative to their positions. Denorfia projects to be average, Gonzalez below average, and while people may be high on Brandon Phillips offensively, that .287 post All-Star Break on-base percentage and his complete inability to take a walk means that we absolutely cannot rely on him for anything more than average production offensively relative to other second basemen. In short, all that means that the traditional offense-heavy positions of 1B, 3B, LF, and RF need to produce with the bat, otherwise the team just simply won't score enough runs throughout the season to go anywhere.

    Dunn will produce in left field, and Encarnacion should be a sure-fire bet to produce at third base. Griffey in right field, due to both his decline and injury potential, is a massive question mark. Hatteberg at first base on a full-time basis projects to be nothing less than a massive liability offensively. As was discussed last night, the Reds are a slugger short of being able to score enough runs. We need four sluggers, but really only have two-and-a-half (Griffey counts as the half due to age/injuries).

    If the team can find a stopgap slugger to play first base in place of Hatteberg until Votto is ready - or a corner outfielder and bump Dunn or Griffey to first base until Votto is ready - then we'd have a nice combination of offense and fielding defense spread out through our regular position players.

    Unfortunately, without that additional slugger, I fear the offensive punch of this team just won't accomplish the job.
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  13. #222
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds

    One further point. Offensively Gonzo is a fly ball hitter. He once hit 23 homers in a year for Florida. His OBP and BA numbers are quite poor, probably because he hits the ball in the air so much. There is a chance he could hit a fair share of extra base hits in GABP.

  14. #223
    GR8NESS WMR's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds

    Dunn Deno Griffey

    EdE Gonzo B. Phill Hatte

    Can Deno's .OBP justify batting lead-off? (obviously, whenever Freel's not playing)

    I really don't see who else can possibly contend for the spot in that line-up...

    but then again, this is JN we're talking about.

    Deno
    EdE
    Dunn
    Jr
    Hatte
    Ross
    B.Phill
    Gonzo
    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Calipari is not, nor has he ever been accused or "caught", cheating. He himself turned in one of his players (Camby) for dealing with an agent to get one Final Four overturned. The other is all on the NCAA and Rose. (IF Rose cheated.)
    "Cheering for Kentucky is like watching Star Wars and hoping Darth Vader chokes an ewok"


  15. #224
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Aronchis View Post
    Sounds like the offenses potential hinges on Joey Votto..............
    I would say Votto, the health of Junior, and GABP helping out Sea Bass' numbers.

    I wasn't aware he once hit 23 homers in Flordia. He may be able to bring some power.

  16. #225
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    I would say Votto, the health of Junior, and GABP helping out Sea Bass' numbers.

    I wasn't aware he once hit 23 homers in Flordia. He may be able to bring some power.
    Also hit 18 another Fla year. Had over 70 ribbies twice. But poor OBPs. Hit far fewer homers for Boston last couple of years.


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