Alex Gonzalez to the Reds

[Always Red]

My guess is that Krivsky is not as good as the Arroyo deal, and not as bad as the Lopez/Kearns deal. As a GM, he'll probably wind up in between. I know, I went out on a limb there, didn't I?

He sold off a good chunk of offense, in retrospect, for a mediocre bullpen, in order to try to keep the Reds in the race. We hashed and rehashed that, no need to do it again!

I don't have a problem at all with this acquisition; SS has been a glaring hole defensively, and now it's not.

One problem fixed. On to the next ones.

I don't expect the FO to be able to overhaul this entire team in this offseason; there's too much to do, and too many problems with long term contracts. Add some more pitching (starters, relievers, whatever!), go talk with Junior about moving to RF, stick Deno in CF, move Freel back to supersub (oh, he'll be in there soon enough) and decide on 2 of the 3 catchers, and soon enough it'll be time for Sarasota.

[Heath]

Tune in and find out... I certainly don't know.

But I'm not too worried about it myself.

I would hope that they would look at WayneK as a TV show with multiple storylines over a full season than some one time "Charlie Brown Christmas Special".

Sometimes the storylines are more interesting than some one hour special with immediate statisfaction.

[edabbs44]

GAC, I agree with you, but I think this team needs to take a step back and say "Do we honestly have a shot at October with who is on our team and with who we honestly have a shot at getting through trades and FA?"

If yes, then go for it. Don't half-ass it. Go and get some pitching. It doesn't matter where from, b/c w/o pitching this team is headed nowhere.

If not (which is where I believe they are right now), then don't throw $5 mil per at a no hit SS. Save that money for the draft and international FA signings. Start to rebuild.

I don't love AGon, but I'm not totally against him. But is this a guy which will bring this team to the postseason? If WK is honestly looking at the FA pitching pool and saying "None of these guys are worth it", then does he actually think the current intact staff will make it out of June? Then what is the point of signing this guy?

For a team with this payroll size, I think $5 mil per is a good chunk of money. Again, if this is the first of a multitude of moves to BETTER this team, then I'll be cool with it. But if the off-season is littered with Merckers, then this will be a complete waste of money.

[GAC]

Yep And I already stated he was an outstanding acquisition.

Now offset that with Mays, Kim and Lohse.

And that was just the rotation additions.

And why didn't Mays make your list? or did the program blue screen when you put in his numbers?

OK. What else was out there for him to inquire/acquire?

We all agree that the bullpen, going into the AS break needed big time help or we were sunk.

I thoroughly agree with what Cedric stated.....

The pen killed him in July and August and that was because of Krivsky how? He inherited a miserable pitching staff.

You can't improve a pitching staff that bad in mid season. The best you can do is take flyers on certain pitchers and hope for the best.

I seriously doubt Wayne had visions of dominating relief pitching when he dealt for Yan.

It's amazing. I've never seen anything like the vultures out for Krivsky at this point. He inherited one of the worst pitching staffs I've ever seen and had VERY little value to try and trade to make it better.

Do you guys really think he had envisions of Joe Mays or Esteban Yan turning into all stars? No, but they were the only options and there was no reason to risk it

The vast majority of those arms were very low risk and could be easily disposed of.

Heck! Look at all the teams that were scrambling to sign our castoffs last year in a desperate attempt to somehow improve their staffs?

They were simply "shots in the dark". Lets throw it up against the wall and see if it sticks.

I don't believe for a second that Krivsky had any grander visions or expectations for some of those guys.

[westofyou]

By what metric is Ryan Franklin close to league average?

I guess that chart above is what I'd say makes him average.

RSAA--Runs saved against average. It's the amount of runs that a pitcher saved vs. what an average pitcher would have allowed. It's the same stat as Total Baseball's Pitching Runs, except

(1) both have different ways of park adjustments

(2) they added a procedure to take into account the amount of decisions (W+L) the pitcher had, while RSAA doesn't have that.

[M2]

WK made a trade he thought would help the ballclub. It didn't give the immediate satisfaction, so it must be a failure.

I think we can fairly say the trade was a failure. It needed to pay immediate dividends and it might have cost the Reds the division. I don't get too bent out of shape about that last part because there was no way of knowing the Cardinals would disintegrate in September before they did. Had Krivsky known that what he needed was 84 wins, he might have concluded that it was a safer bet to bang his way there and try smaller moves to fix the pen.

That trade has hurt, it still hurts now that the Reds have less value to move in this hot market and it's likely going to hurt down the road too.

That said, I agree that one bad trade, even one that qualifies as one of the two worst trades in recent memory (on par with the Padres-Rangers deal from last winter), isn't a reason to bury a guy who's got some clear positives on his resume as well.

[Johnny Footstool]

I don't know, landing Arroyo and mining Phillips was no mean feat. Put it this way, four more scores like that and the Reds would be a hell of team.

Arroyo turned out better than I or anyone else ever imagined. I still think that's a case of the blind squirrel finding a nut.

Phillips for a PTBNL was a no-brainer. I can't give Krivsky much credit for making a low-risk move like that.

Surely Krivsky noticed his team couldn't buy a run later in the season and hopefully he noticed the stark difference between the team that wore out opposing pitchers early in the season and the one that flailed helplessly in the final two months of the year.

He fired the hitting coach whose mantra was patience and working the count. If he did notice, he has a funny way of showing it.

That said, I'm happy he brought in an honest-to-goodness defensive SS and a decent (albeit well-worn) reliever without ravaging the already wafer-thin talent pool. Hopefully, he'll figure out how to get a decent #3 starter the same way.

[traderumor]

What exactly did they offer that Salmon or Medlock didn't?

There are very, very few minor leaguers who have what it takes. These are two AA ballers and the chances of them doing anything but coming up to the major leagues and getting rocked is very slim. The divide between average and below average major league relievers and prospects is most often night and day. Major league hitters are that good. It takes a pretty special prospect to jump to the majors, esp from AA, and have success at the major league level. I appreciate this more each year I watch not only the Reds, but the rest of the league struggle to find guys that can get major league hitters out.

[Cedric]

Phillips for a PTBNL was a no-brainer. I can't give Krivsky much credit for making a low-risk move like that.

A no brainer that 29 other teams passed on.

[Johnny Footstool]

Not to underscore the intention of your post (which I agree with), but the market for those same average bullpen arms has also shot through the roof (see Speier, Walker etc.). And one might suggest that the cost of bullpen arms is actually rising faster than other positions.

There are more average bullpen arms available than young, above-average everyday players.

[edabbs44]

The real meat and potatoes with a GM is how he does in the offseason. All this hand wringing about mid season flyers is just overly dramatic, IMO.

If you wanna debate about Majewski injury and Felipe trade that's a different story. But arguing that Krivsky somehow has no eye for talent because of Esteban Yan over Mike Burns than so be it.

The Washington trade is obviously in the equation. But if this is how it is, then he shouldn't get much credit for Phillips and Ross. They were as much of flyers as Yan, Kim and the rest of them.

But I don't think all of his mid-season trades were flyers. Not Lohse. Not Cormier. Not Guardado. Those were trades, no matter when they were made.

[GAC]

GAC, I agree with you, but I think this team needs to take a step back and say "Do we honestly have a shot at October with who is on our team and with who we honestly have a shot at getting through trades and FA?"

Not without more being done. I agree.

If yes, then go for it. Don't half-ass it. Go and get some pitching. It doesn't matter where from, b/c w/o pitching this team is headed nowhere.

I agree. But again.... it's easier said than done. What's available? And at what cost?

If WK is honestly looking at the FA pitching pool and saying "None of these guys are worth it"

Alot of them, as far as pitchers go, simply aren't worth it. We already over paid for a Milton. Learn from our mistakes.

then does he actually think the current intact staff will make it out of June?

No Wayne doesn't. But the market is dictating the demands. I simply don't want our GM throwing alot of money at pitchers w/ gauranteed contracts, and who have a history of mediocre to average performance.

Then what is the point of signing this guy?

Fills a very dire need. We have quite a few of those on this team. This is one less IMO.

Are you saying we should ignore one need because we may have a hard time filling another?

For a team with this payroll size, I think $5 mil per is a good chunk of money. Again, if this is the first of a multitude of moves to BETTER this team, then I'll be cool with it. But if the off-season is littered with Merckers, then this will be a complete waste of money.

That is what we'll have to wait and see 44. And it's why I still continue to believe that it's not gonna be fixed in one off-season, and has to be done incrementally.

[TRF]

I guess that chart above is what I'd say makes him average.

I thought W/L was a bad metric by which to measure a pitcher's effectiveness?

How many runners did he allow? what was his OPSA?

Here were his numbers:

BA .285 OBP .359 SLG .507 OPS .865

In other words, he made every hitter look like a borderline HOFer.

And that's league average?

[Kc61]

I'm reading a lot of Krivsky bashing with which I cannot agree.

He made a lot of marginal to bad acquisitions last year trying, in mid-season, to get a workable combination of relievers and back-of-the-rotation starters. He knew what he was getting, but didn't think the Reds could make the playoffs with the existing group. These were not long term acquisitions and are not a basis for judgment.

He doesn't value 580 foot home runs as much as some but believes in a defensive oriented team. And whether or not you agree, it is inarguable that the Reds' home run lineup has resulted in nothing but losing seasons the past number of years.

Krivsky's pickup of Arroyo was one of the best moves by a Reds GM in years. Phillips, Schoenweis, Ross were other good moves. Lohse wasn't terrible. In order to make these kinds of moves, you can't be gun shy. You have to be willing to fail and Krivsky did in some cases. No GM only hits the jackpot; all take risks that don't pan out.

As for the "trade" the only issue I see is Majewski. If he returns to competent status even that will be ok because the Reds will replace Lopez and Kearns. They have already replaced Lopez with Gonzalez. If you prefer Lopez, fine, but it is obvious to me that Krivsky never had any intention of keeping him because of his subpar defense.

As for those who feel that guys like Medlock were a better answer in 2005, the guy hasn't even pitched that well in the Arizona Fall League. Krivsky obviously believes that a player needs a certain level of experience in most cases. And if Medlock had been called up and failed, as is likely, we would have heard that this is another Brian Reith situation. You can't win.

Let's just let the off-season play out. I believe that Krivsky will convert the Reds into a sounder baseball team. It may not work, but it's better than the losing combo of home runs and a team ERA of 5.20.

[M2]

Arroyo turned out better than I or anyone else ever imagined. I still think that's a case of the blind squirrel finding a nut.

While Arroyo did better than I thought he would, I did think 200+ IP with an ERA in the high 3.00s was in the offing for him. The dude can pitch.

Phillips for a PTBNL was a no-brainer. I can't give Krivsky much credit for making a low-risk move like that.

What Ced said. I'll add that finding more guys like Phillips is something that the Reds need a GM to do.

He fired the hitting coach whose mantra was patience and working the count. If he did notice, he has a funny way of showing it.

I liked Chambliss too, but hitting coaches never stick around for too long. I've been surprised that Chambliss hasn't worked his way up to manager status yet.

That said, I'm happy he brought in an honest-to-goodness defensive SS and a decent (albeit well-worn) reliever without ravaging the already wafer-thin talent pool. Hopefully, he'll figure out how to get a decent #3 starter the same way.

I'll toast to that.