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Thread: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds

  1. #391
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Ga_Red View Post
    My bet is w/o giving up Dunn, Bailey, Cueto, Votto,
    or Wood, WK gets JJ.
    More power to him if Wayne can pull that off, though I'd gladly deal Votto for Jennings.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  3. #392
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool View Post
    Sorry I confused you. It wasn't intentional.

    As for there being "no data...that qualifies them by some measure of 'above average everyday players,'" well, you're clearly wrong on that count. M2 pretty much covered this.
    Fine if M2 reflects your position, but I'm not sure he did anything other than point out that FeLo had a great 2005, which I agreed with. That does not make him an "above average everyday player" by definition. Anyhow, I'm not sure they got value for the trade, I just object to the overstating of what we gave up.

  4. #393
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    The Emperor has no clothes. I quoted WOY for a reason.
    I don't consider a reliever with a career .777 OPSA "average" anything. That's crap you find on the side of the road.

  5. #394
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I don't consider a reliever with a career .777 OPSA "average" anything. That's crap you find on the side of the road.
    7 year career, composite league ERA is 4.35, his ERA is 4.36. Career WHIP is 1.345, again a WHIP representing an average pitcher. Hey, I rode him hard in his stint with the Reds because he was awful, but his career has been "average" by various measures.

  6. #395
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    More power to him if Wayne can pull that off, though I'd gladly deal Votto for Jennings.
    me too.
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  7. #396
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    Fine if M2 reflects your position, but I'm not sure he did anything other than point out that FeLo had a great 2005, which I agreed with. That does not make him an "above average everyday player" by definition. Anyhow, I'm not sure they got value for the trade, I just object to the overstating of what we gave up.
    I thought I also pointed out that he had a solid, above average 2006. Two years running of being above average for a kid headed into his prime sure counts as being above average to me.

    I don't think "above average" overstates Lopez and Kearns in the least. They most definitely fill the bill. Perennial All-Star or top tier would be overstatements, but pointing that guys who are better than the average bear are better than the average bear is simply an act of definition. IMO, you're understating their value in portraying them as negligible, easily replaced talents. They aren't and, more to the point, they weren't.

    What happened with them is something I've objected to multiple times over the years. I had no problem trading Lopez or Kearns. In fact, I was probably one of the first folks in these parts to be for trading both of them. The problem is that the Reds got so little for them. I find far too often we tend to undervalue a guy once he becomes the nominal guy the team should trade. For instance, I always maintained Sean Casey would be an awfully useful guy for a playoff caliber team. That has a value. The Reds got rid of him like he was oozing Hep C. These aren't players you want to get rid of, they're players you want to get something for.
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  8. #397
    Hey Cubs Fans RFS62's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post

    What happened with them is something I've objected to multiple times over the years. I had no problem trading Lopez or Kearns. In fact, I was probably one of the first folks in these parts to be for trading both of them. The problem is that the Reds got so little for them. I find far too often we tend to undervalue a guy once he becomes the nominal guy the team should trade. For instance, I always maintained Sean Casey would be an awfully useful guy for a playoff caliber team. That has a value. The Reds got rid of him like he was oozing Hep C. These aren't players you want to get rid of, they're players you want to get something for.

    I think a salary dump for next season was a major factor in Krivsky's trading Kearns and Lopez. He saw around 8 or 9 million coming on the books next season between them.

    Also, I can't help but think he decided to move Kearns to get him away from Adam as well. All we have is hearsay, but I've always thought he had a sense of entitlement beyond what he's produced thus far. Lopez too has been the subject of many remarks of that nature. I know it's not anything we can verify unless you talk to front office or clubhouse people, but it's just an impression I have.

    Once he decided to move them, then it's a matter of what does he get. And what he got, or settled for, as many critics of the trade would put it, was relative to where we were at the time of the deal..... contending for the division.

    Keeping the promise Castellini made in his first press conference had to play into that trade in ways that just can't be measured, IMO.

    How do you determine the value of staying in contention, even though we fell short? It's a much more complex equation than simple numbers can reflect.
    "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."
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  9. #398
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    Fine if M2 reflects your position, but I'm not sure he did anything other than point out that FeLo had a great 2005, which I agreed with. That does not make him an "above average everyday player" by definition. Anyhow, I'm not sure they got value for the trade, I just object to the overstating of what we gave up.
    I object to you saying the data doesn't exist when it clearly does. It shows that Kearns is an above average everyday player (both offensively and defensively), and that FeLo is at least average, and performed well above average just one year ago.

    If you'd like to further deconstruct the term "above average everyday player", go right ahead.
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  10. #399
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by RFS62 View Post
    I think a salary dump for next season was a major factor in Krivsky's trading Kearns and Lopez. He saw around 8 or 9 million coming on the books next season between them.

    Also, I can't help but think he decided to move Kearns to get him away from Adam as well. All we have is hearsay, but I've always thought he had a sense of entitlement beyond what he's produced thus far. Lopez too has been the subject of many remarks of that nature. I know it's not anything we can verify unless you talk to front office or clubhouse people, but it's just an impression I have.

    Once he decided to move them, then it's a matter of what does he get. And what he got, or settled for, as many critics of the trade would put it, was relative to where we were at the time of the deal..... contending for the division.

    Keeping the promise Castellini made in his first press conference had to play into that trade in ways that just can't be measured, IMO.

    How do you determine the value of staying in contention, even though we fell short? It's a much more complex equation than simple numbers can reflect.
    Well, I don't have any kind words for a salary dump in the middle of a pennant chase. Beyond that, given where the market's gone, it was an incredibly short-sighted move if that was indeed Krivsky's intent.

    I also think simple numbers make a stark and compelling case that the trade cost the Reds a lot more on the contention front than they gained. I don't really see much of a hook to hang the contrary position on. The offense collapsed and the trade didn't improve the pitching/defense.

    I don't doubt that Krivsky made the move because he thought he was improving his team for the stretch run. He just turned out to be wrong about it (a combination of undervaluing what he had and overvaluing what he got in return, particularly Majewski, says me). I don't think he settled. I think it was a simple case of wrong idea at the wrong time.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  11. #400
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I thought I also pointed out that he had a solid, above average 2006. Two years running of being above average for a kid headed into his prime sure counts as being above average to me.

    I don't think "above average" overstates Lopez and Kearns in the least. They most definitely fill the bill. Perennial All-Star or top tier would be overstatements, but pointing that guys who are better than the average bear are better than the average bear is simply an act of definition. IMO, you're understating their value in portraying them as negligible, easily replaced talents. They aren't and, more to the point, they weren't.

    What happened with them is something I've objected to multiple times over the years. I had no problem trading Lopez or Kearns. In fact, I was probably one of the first folks in these parts to be for trading both of them. The problem is that the Reds got so little for them. I find far too often we tend to undervalue a guy once he becomes the nominal guy the team should trade. For instance, I always maintained Sean Casey would be an awfully useful guy for a playoff caliber team. That has a value. The Reds got rid of him like he was oozing Hep C. These aren't players you want to get rid of, they're players you want to get something for.
    M2,
    With all due respect, I went back and read that post, and there were several comments, but nothing that I construed as "a solid, above average 2006." Several generic statements about his future, but nothing specific to 2006.

    JF,
    Regardless, I don't see a boatload of data coming from either side, so I'm not sure what getting indignant is based on. You used the first half of 2006 as your basis, I am evaluating based on career numbers and where they go from here, and so has M2. I smell average, you smell above average. Fine. Guess we'll see how it plays out from here.

  12. #401
    Hey Cubs Fans RFS62's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Well, I don't have any kind words for a salary dump in the middle of a pennant chase. Beyond that, given where the market's gone, it was an incredibly short-sighted move if that was indeed Krivsky's intent.

    I'm not suggesting it was a pure salary dump. I'm just of the opinion that a lot of factors played into the deal. First and foremost, I think he decided that both guys weren't in his long term plans and he knew that next season they got a big raise.
    "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."
    ~ Mark Twain

  13. #402
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    M2,
    With all due respect, I went back and read that post, and there were several comments, but nothing that I construed as "a solid, above average 2006." Several generic statements about his future, but nothing specific to 2006.
    Except for his Win Shares ranking, which was above average (16 total) and quite solid. I could have also included his EQA, VORP or runs above position, but it seemed you wanted something with his glove factored into it.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  14. #403
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Except for his Win Shares ranking, which was above average (16 total) and quite solid. I could have also included his EQA, VORP or runs above position, but it seemed you wanted something with his glove factored into it.
    You're right, my mistake.

  15. #404
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by RFS62 View Post
    I'm not suggesting it was a pure salary dump. I'm just of the opinion that a lot of factors played into the deal. First and foremost, I think he decided that both guys weren't in his long term plans and he knew that next season they got a big raise.
    I never viewed them as long-term guys either. Yet just because they aren't long-term guys doesn't mean you rush them out the door. Again, this is a mistake the Reds have made repeatedly over the years. If a guy isn't necessarily the solution that doesn't make him nearly worthless. It's lousy card playing and it gets you into binds like being in an exploding market with minimal trade equity at your disposal.

    I don't doubt that you've accurately divined Krivsky's mindset on the trade, but that doesn't make him less wrong. He blew that one and blew it hard. He can't say it out loud because he's still got Bray and Majewski on the roster, but I hope he recognizes it and has come away from it the wiser.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  16. #405
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez to the Reds

    Now that it's official... BP's Joe Sheehan thought Gonzalez was a good "stealth sign" even if the dollars were higher than originally projected, as pretty much every other free agent will be. In particular, I thought it interesting that (1) he thinks the defensive systems that rate Gonzalez as excellent are more accurate than BP's own Davenport numbers and (2) Gonzo will really help the Reds because the team doesn't strike out a lot of guys and the bullpen is groundball-oriented. How true is that latter point, I wonder? (The part about the bullpen, I mean, the low K figures are obvious enough.)

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=5718
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