Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 30

Thread: Reds CF Defense - David Pinto

  1. #1
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    15,935

    Reds CF Defense - David Pinto

    So for those of you not comfortable with the "standard" defensive metrics, you should take a look at David Pinto's work over at baseballmusings.com. He uses a statistic he calls "probablistic model of range". Basically, it says that every ball hit in to play has a certain chance of being turned in to an out (based on actual ball-in-play data). Thusly, all the fielders at a given position can get ranked relative to their piers on a zero-sum system in which the average is making as many outs as you are predicted to make.

    We all know that Freel is a very solid OF and that Deno was rated the best defensive OF in AAA. Most of us agree that Junior is no longer a good CF, and some of us think he's among the worst. Here are David Pinto's numbers, looking at all players who were in CF for 1000 balls in play.

    Code:
    Rank	Player			In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
    1	Ichiro Suzuki		1017	114		106.04		0.112	0.104		0.00782
    2	Ryan Freel		1211	127		119.69		0.105	0.099		0.00603
    3	Shane Victorino		1691	161		151.18		0.095	0.089		0.00581
    4	Carlos Beltran		3517	357		338.76		0.102	0.096		0.00519
    5	Alfredo Amezaga		1580	155		146.95		0.098	0.093		0.00509
    6	Coco Crisp		2814	246		232.39		0.087	0.083		0.00484
    7	Corey Patterson		3360	345		329.33		0.103	0.098		0.00466
    8	Joey R Gathright	3272	341		325.89		0.104	0.100		0.00462
    9	Aaron Rowand		2742	251		238.64		0.092	0.087		0.00451
    10	Johnny Damon		3378	306		294.1		0.091	0.087		0.00352
    11	Rocco Baldelli		2368	228		219.8		0.096	0.093		0.00346
    12	Randy Winn		1366	137		132.45		0.100	0.097		0.00333
    13	Jim Edmonds		2471	223		215.35		0.090	0.087		0.00309
    14	Brady Clark		2748	250		241.95		0.091	0.088		0.00293
    15	Willy Taveras		3304	335		325.37		0.101	0.098		0.00292
    16	Reggie D Abercrombie	1833	172		168.04		0.094	0.092		0.00216
    17	Mike Cameron		3723	367		360.5		0.099	0.097		0.00174
    18	Brian N Anderson	2996	305		300.58		0.102	0.100		0.00148
    19	Steve Finley		3013	287		283.68		0.095	0.094		0.0011
    20	Juan Pierre		4103	380		375.88		0.093	0.092		0.00101
    21	Curtis Granderson	4014	385		381.35		0.096	0.095		0.00091
    22	Vernon Wells		3918	332		330		0.085	0.084		0.00051
    23	Eric Byrnes		3208	270		268.41		0.084	0.084		0.0005
    24	Andruw Jones		4109	377		375.19		0.092	0.091		0.00044
    25	Choo Freeman		1021	101		100.81		0.099	0.099		0.00018
    26	Chris Duffy		2053	166		165.87		0.081	0.081		0.00006
    27	So Taguchi		1095	90		89.97		0.082	0.082		0.00003
    28	Marlon Byrd		1272	125		125.07		0.098	0.098		-0.00006
    29	Gary Matthews Jr.	3909	333		334.9		0.085	0.086		-0.00049
    30	Chone Figgins		2455	242		243.74		0.099	0.099		-0.00071
    31	Torii Hunter		3715	343		347.24		0.092	0.093		-0.00114
    32	Nate McLouth		1072	84		86.24		0.078	0.080		-0.00209
    33	David DeJesus		1561	149		153.04		0.095	0.098		-0.00258
    34	Mark Kotsay		3261	281		294.51		0.086	0.090		-0.00414
    35	Cory Sullivan		2666	225		236.48		0.084	0.089		-0.0043
    36	Grady Sizemore		4455	409		431.13		0.092	0.097		-0.00497
    37	Ryan M Church		1172	122		128.48		0.104	0.110		-0.00553
    38	Rob Mackowiak		1415	119		127.4		0.084	0.090		-0.00594
    39	Kenny Lofton		2999	241		259.05		0.080	0.086		-0.00602
    40	Jose A Bautista		1323	114		122.09		0.086	0.092		-0.00612
    41	Jay Payton		1196	104		111.9		0.087	0.094		-0.00661
    42	Ken Griffey Jr.		2753	229		256.68		0.083	0.093		-0.01006
    43	Jeremy T Reed		1535	129		146.35		0.084	0.095		-0.0113
    So, Freel made 7 more outs than expected and Junior made 27 outs fewer than expected. There's a number of things to be inferred here.
    - Freel is a darn good CF and Deno (based on the scouting reports) probably is too.
    - Junior is quite bad at turning balls in play in to outs, compared to the rest of ML CF.
    - Given that Junior and Freel combined for ~90% of our innings in CF, we can say that there's about a 35-40 out swing between having a very good and a very bad CF.
    - Outs not made in CF are, by my complete guess, the most costly non-outs in baseball due to the likelihood that those non-outs are extra base hits.
    - Lastly, on Junior -- he's more below average than Ichiro is above average at turning balls in play in to outs. That's bad folks.

    I'm not saying this is the be-all, end-all of defensive analysis. But in my mind, if Junior starts 2007 with either Freel or Denorfia on the roster, WK's claims about wanting a better defensive team are lip-service. Junior seems like a smart guy. Call him in to your office, show him the numbers. Tell him you think he still reads the ball well and has a decent arm and would make a great RF, but that he's hurting the team in Center.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 11-24-2006 at 12:59 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    4,060

    Re: Reds CF Defense - David Pinto

    Nice post. It will be a sad day when Griffey plays CF and Freel is healthy next year.

  4. #3
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    14,730

    Re: Reds CF Defense - David Pinto

    Great post RMR. I think this is just more statistical evidence of what we see with our eyes day in and day out. What I see more from Griffey that makes me crazy is the balls that drop-in in-front of him that look like routine pops that should be caught.I think his lack of range has him playing deeper than he did in his prime and those flairs are really costly. This is more common with CF than either RF or LF and is the reason having him in CF hurts so much IMO.

    He'd be OK in RF
    Last edited by mth123; 11-24-2006 at 01:02 PM.

  5. #4
    Member Spitball's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Posts
    5,620

    Re: Reds CF Defense - David Pinto

    Hmmm...Jeremy Reed is at the bottom. Last year he was at the top of the Range factor chart for starting center fielders. He had a wrist injury, but that wouldn't explain the drop.

    By the way, my eyeballs project him as more of a corner outfielder.
    "I am your child from the future. I'm sorry I didn't tell you this earlier." - Dylan Easton

  6. #5
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    13,309

    Re: Reds CF Defense - David Pinto

    So it makes no sense for the Reds to go out and spend for a defensive-oriented centerfielder. What they should do, instead, is move Griffey to right, put Freel in center and spell him with Deno on occasion. Maybe even get a third guy (lefty hitter, inexpensive) who can play some center, maybe even Crosby if he makes the team.

    Then the only defensive problem is the corner outfielders.

    Spend on pitching and first base.

  7. #6
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    15,935

    Re: Reds CF Defense - David Pinto

    Seattle has had a finesse, fly ball staff. They didn't miss many bats (lots of balls in play) and they tend to let the ball get hit in the air. Reed could be a crappy fielder and still make more putouts than Torii Hunter. Pinto's measure, unlike Range factor, isn't about how many balls are hit to you. It's about given balls that you have a chance of making a play on, do you make them?

    For example, on a given hit, the CF may only have a 10% chance of making the play. Thus, if he doesn't make the play, he's only deducted .1. The problem with a guy like Junior is that while he might be perfect about making all those plays that he "should" make, he makes virtually none of the plays that are lower percentage. It gives you a warm feeling to see him never drop the ball. But when the ball drops 10 feet ahead of him or worse, 10 feet to his right, we tend not to think of that as an error, even though both situations result in a base runner instead of an out.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  8. #7
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    14,730

    Re: Reds CF Defense - David Pinto

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    So it makes no sense for the Reds to go out and spend for a defensive-oriented centerfielder. What they should do, instead, is move Griffey to right, put Freel in center and spell him with Deno on occasion. Maybe even get a third guy (lefty hitter, inexpensive) who can play some center, maybe even Crosby if he makes the team.

    Then the only defensive problem is the corner outfielders.

    Spend on pitching and first base.
    My thoughts as well. Its just I'd trade Freel to get a pitcher and sign an OF to replace him that could spell Deno and Griffey and start maybe 4 days per week.

  9. #8
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Winton Place
    Posts
    11,135

    Re: Reds CF Defense - David Pinto

    Perhaps this is why I'm so stat phobic. Can someone explain how they arrive at the figures to the right? Sorry for being thick, but it's all meaningless numbers until someone explains their meaning.

  10. #9
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    Cincinnati, OH
    Posts
    6,267

    Re: Reds CF Defense - David Pinto

    Quote Originally Posted by redsmetz View Post
    Perhaps this is why I'm so stat phobic. Can someone explain how they arrive at the figures to the right? Sorry for being thick, but it's all meaningless numbers until someone explains their meaning.
    http://www.baseballmusings.com/archi...l_of_range.php

    I calculate the probability of a ball being turned into an out based on six parameters:
    • Direction of hit (a vector).
    • The type of hit (Fly, ground, line drive, bunt).
    • How hard the ball was hit (slow, medium, hard).
    • The park.
    • The handedness of the pitcher.
    • The handedness of the batter.

    For each ball in play, the program sums the probability of that ball being turned into an out, and that gives us the expected outs. Dividing that by balls in play yields expected defensive efficiency rating (DER). That is compared to the team's actual DER. A good defensive team [and player] should have a better DER than its expected DER.

    There are differences between this year's and last year's calculation. I'm now using three years of data instead of just one. Also, Baseball Info Solution charts balls differently that STATS, Inc. so there are many more vectors that in the previous system. I believe that actually improves the calculation.
    The author of this Angels blog does an ok job converting Pinto's DER numbers into runs, which is easier for most people to understand.
    Barry Larkin - HOF, 2012

    Put an end to the Lost Decade.

  11. #10
    Member membengal's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Baltimore
    Posts
    9,001

    Re: Reds CF Defense - David Pinto

    For what it's worth, in the BP locked off section on Reds prospects, they had nice things to say about Drew Stubbs' glove, calling him a top 10 CF guy right now in terms of defense. Course, there is the hitting issue with him, but still, a potential good glove on the horizen...

  12. #11
    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2000
    Location
    Rainelle, WV
    Posts
    8,077

    Re: Reds CF Defense - David Pinto

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    My thoughts as well. Its just I'd trade Freel to get a pitcher and sign an OF to replace him that could spell Deno and Griffey and start maybe 4 days per week.
    Finally someone agrees with me. I have never understood the popularity of Freel here and other places. He's an undisciplined player who can make the big play once in awhile. He hits leadoff and strikes out. He gets on and makes boneheaded running errors. He can't play all the time because his effectiveness slips more than any player I've ever seen. Trade Him while folks still think he's great. I'd ten times rather have Chris Denorfia leading off and playing center than Freel.
    www.ris-news.com
    "You only have to bat a thousand in two things; flying and heart transplants. Everything else you can go 4-for-5."
    -Beano Cook

  13. #12
    Member Jpup's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Southern KY
    Posts
    6,967

    Re: Reds CF Defense - David Pinto

    Quote Originally Posted by WVRedsFan View Post
    Finally someone agrees with me. I have never understood the popularity of Freel here and other places. He's an undisciplined player who can make the big play once in awhile. He hits leadoff and strikes out. He gets on and makes boneheaded running errors. He can't play all the time because his effectiveness slips more than any player I've ever seen. Trade Him while folks still think he's great. I'd ten times rather have Chris Denorfia leading off and playing center than Freel.
    the facts prove otherwise, but let's not worry about those.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  14. #13
    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2000
    Location
    Rainelle, WV
    Posts
    8,077

    Re: Reds CF Defense - David Pinto

    Quote Originally Posted by Jpup View Post
    the facts prove otherwise, but let's not worry about those.
    JMO, Jpup, but every time I see Freel go into one of his notorious slumps when he's played more than 7 days in a row and swing at every pitch no matter where it is, I know I'll appreciate that he goes after every ball in the outfield regardless of where it is. When he crashes in old ladies in the stands going after a ball that no one, including Superman, can catch, i'll be pround. With his next DWI, I'll still be proud because I know he was going for the gusto.

    [rant mode off]
    www.ris-news.com
    "You only have to bat a thousand in two things; flying and heart transplants. Everything else you can go 4-for-5."
    -Beano Cook

  15. #14
    Member Jpup's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Southern KY
    Posts
    6,967

    Re: Reds CF Defense - David Pinto

    Quote Originally Posted by WVRedsFan View Post
    JMO, Jpup, but every time I see Freel go into one of his notorious slumps when he's played more than 7 days in a row and swing at every pitch no matter where it is, I know I'll appreciate that he goes after every ball in the outfield regardless of where it is. When he crashes in old ladies in the stands going after a ball that no one, including Superman, can catch, i'll be pround. With his next DWI, I'll still be proud because I know he was going for the gusto.

    [rant mode off]
    I don't like the DUIs either, but that has nothing to do with his play on the field. IMO, if the Reds choose to keep the player on the team, then that is where it ends. If we, as fans and customers, have a problem with that, we should let it be known to the front office. What that has to do with his defense or his ability to get on base, I have zero idea.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  16. #15
    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2000
    Location
    Rainelle, WV
    Posts
    8,077

    Re: Reds CF Defense - David Pinto

    Quote Originally Posted by Jpup View Post
    I don't like the DUIs either, but that has nothing to do with his play on the field. IMO, if the Reds choose to keep the player on the team, then that is where it ends. If we, as fans and customers, have a problem with that, we should let it be known to the front office. What that has to do with his defense or his ability to get on base, I have zero idea.
    I was just a bit over the line there, but it's just another example of mental discpline. It goes hand-in-hand or so I've seen over the years.

    And you're right, my guess is we're stuck with him, so that should end it.
    www.ris-news.com
    "You only have to bat a thousand in two things; flying and heart transplants. Everything else you can go 4-for-5."
    -Beano Cook


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25