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Thread: Kyle Lohse

  1. #1
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    Kyle Lohse

    Kyle has taken a lot of heat here at Redszone, but is he really that bad?

    Here is a look at some numbers.

    Kyle Lohse
    2002 180.2 IP 4.23 ERA 6.2 K/9IP .83 G/F
    2003 201 IP 4.61 ERA 5.8 K/9IP .90 G/F
    2004 194 IP 5.34 ERA 5.2 K/9IP 1.18 G/F
    2005 178.2 IP 4.18 ERA 4.3 K/9IP 1.25 G/F
    2006 126.2 IP 5.86 ERA 6.9 K9IP 1.18 G/F

    Ted Lilly
    2002 100 IP 3.69 ERA 7.7 K/IP .68 G/F
    2003 178.2 IP 4.34 ERA 7.4 K/IP .85 G/F
    2004 197.1 IP 4.06 ERA 7.7 K.IP .80 G/F
    2005 126.1 IP 5.56 ERA 6.8 K/IP .92 G/F
    2006 181.2 IP 4.31 ERA 7.9 K/IP .89 G/F

    Couple of things really stand out to me.

    1) Over the last 5 years Kyle's numbers are not a whole lot different than one of the top free agent pitchers in this year's market.

    2) After going over Kyle's numbers, it seems like he has been going through an identity crisis. Take a look at his best 2 years. In 2002 he was striking out over 6 guys an inning but was more of a flyball pitcher. Over the next few years both those stats gradually changed. In 2005 his K's were way down but his groundball ratio was way up. It was well documented that Kyle had some troubles with the Twins coaching staff, could this be his biggest problem? Maybe if he finds a pitching coach that is consistant and either coaches one style over the other he might settle in.

    I think Kyle was confused in 2006, was he a groundball pitcher, or a strikeout guy. Once he figures that out he will be fine. If Dick Pole and Kyle can figure out his style, I think we are going to have a gem on our hands. Remember 2002-2005 numbers were in the AL. I think with our new MI, a year sub 4.0 ERA is very possible.
    Last edited by Willy; 11-25-2006 at 07:26 PM.

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  3. #2
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    Re: Kyle Lohse

    Quote Originally Posted by Willy View Post
    Kyle has taken a lot of heat here at Redszone, but is he really that bad?

    Here is a look at some numbers.

    Kyle Lohse
    2002 180.2 IP 4.23 ERA 6.2 K/9IP .83 G/F
    2003 201 IP 4.61 ERA 5.8 K/9IP .90 G/F
    2004 194 IP 5.34 ERA 5.2 K/9IP 1.18 G/F
    2005 178.2 IP 4.18 ERA 4.3 K/9IP 1.25 G/F
    2006 126.2 IP 4.86 ERA 6.9 K9IP 1.18 G/F

    Ted Lilly
    2002 100 IP 3.69 ERA 7.7 K/IP .68 G/F
    2003 178.2 IP 4.34 ERA 7.4 K/IP .85 G/F
    2004 197.1 IP 4.06 ERA 7.7 K.IP .80 G/F
    2005 126.1 IP 5.56 ERA 6.8 K/IP .92 G/F
    2006 181.2 IP 4.31 ERA 7.9 K/IP .89 G/F

    Couple of things really stand out to me.

    1) Over the last 5 years Kyle's numbers are not a whole lot different than one of the top free agent pitchers in this year's market.

    2) After going over Kyle's numbers, it seems like he has been going through an identity crisis. Take a look at his best 2 years. In 2002 he was striking out over 6 guys an inning but was more of a flyball pitcher. Over the next few years both those stats gradually changed. In 2005 his K's were way down but his groundball ratio was way up. It was well documented that Kyle had some troubles with the Twins coaching staff, could this be his biggest problem? Maybe if he finds a pitching coach that is consistant and either coaches one style over the other he might settle in.

    I think Kyle was confused in 2006, was he a groundball pitcher, or a strikeout guy. Once he figures that out he will be fine. If Dick Pole and Kyle can figure out his style, I think we are going to have a gem on our hands. Remember 2002-2005 numbers were in the AL. I think with our new MI, a year sub 4.0 ERA is very possible.

    Where are you getting those Lohse 2006 numbers? He did not have a 4.86 ERA for the season.

  4. #3
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    Re: Kyle Lohse

    Typo 5.38

  5. #4
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Kyle Lohse

    Quote Originally Posted by Willy View Post
    Kyle has taken a lot of heat here at Redszone, but is he really that bad?

    Here is a look at some numbers.

    Kyle Lohse
    2002 180.2 IP 4.23 ERA 6.2 K/9IP .83 G/F
    2003 201 IP 4.61 ERA 5.8 K/9IP .90 G/F
    2004 194 IP 5.34 ERA 5.2 K/9IP 1.18 G/F
    2005 178.2 IP 4.18 ERA 4.3 K/9IP 1.25 G/F
    2006 126.2 IP 5.86 ERA 6.9 K9IP 1.18 G/F

    Ted Lilly
    2002 100 IP 3.69 ERA 7.7 K/IP .68 G/F
    2003 178.2 IP 4.34 ERA 7.4 K/IP .85 G/F
    2004 197.1 IP 4.06 ERA 7.7 K.IP .80 G/F
    2005 126.1 IP 5.56 ERA 6.8 K/IP .92 G/F
    2006 181.2 IP 4.31 ERA 7.9 K/IP .89 G/F

    Couple of things really stand out to me.

    1) Over the last 5 years Kyle's numbers are not a whole lot different than one of the top free agent pitchers in this year's market.

    2) After going over Kyle's numbers, it seems like he has been going through an identity crisis. Take a look at his best 2 years. In 2002 he was striking out over 6 guys an inning but was more of a flyball pitcher. Over the next few years both those stats gradually changed. In 2005 his K's were way down but his groundball ratio was way up. It was well documented that Kyle had some troubles with the Twins coaching staff, could this be his biggest problem? Maybe if he finds a pitching coach that is consistant and either coaches one style over the other he might settle in.

    I think Kyle was confused in 2006, was he a groundball pitcher, or a strikeout guy. Once he figures that out he will be fine. If Dick Pole and Kyle can figure out his style, I think we are going to have a gem on our hands. Remember 2002-2005 numbers were in the AL. I think with our new MI, a year sub 4.0 ERA is very possible.
    The main 2 things that jump out at me from this data are...

    1. Lohse is a back of the rotation guy at best.

    2. The manlove for Ted Lilly on this board is unfathomable. He's at best a #3, but probably more suited to also be a back of the rotation guy.

  6. #5
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Re: Kyle Lohse

    Lohse may be primed for a good year ( he is a free agent at the end of 2007 ). i would keep him. if we fall out of contention he could net a good return in a trade mid season.
    .

  7. #6
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Kyle Lohse

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Where are you getting those Lohse 2006 numbers? He did not have a 4.86 ERA for the season.
    2006- His ERA in cincy in 63 innings was 4.57 (7.07 in 63 innings for the twins)

    His career ERA is 4.86
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  8. #7
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Kyle Lohse

    Yup. My interpretation of the above is that Ted Lilly isn't a great pitcher and neither of these guys should be anybody's #3.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #8
    Mon chou Choo vaticanplum's Avatar
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    Re: Kyle Lohse

    You know, Lohse's numbers to me are very relative. If we can pull in a great #3 (or #2 or #1) pitcher during the offseason, I'd grant a lot more leeway to the numbers 4 & 5 starters. Those stats at #4 can look serviceable or awful depending on who's one spot ahead of him.
    There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.

  10. #9
    smells of rich mahogany deltachi8's Avatar
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    Re: Kyle Lohse

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Yup. My interpretation of the above is that Ted Lilly isn't a great pitcher and neither of these guys should be anybody's #3.
    I agree.
    Nothing to see here. Please disperse.

  11. #10
    Mon chou Choo vaticanplum's Avatar
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    Re: Kyle Lohse

    Regarding Ted Lilly, I think the Yankees may sign him if they don't get Kei Igawa (that bidding will end Monday). This is just a hunch of mine. The Yankees have been publicly lukewarm on him...but Lilly has said he'd like to go back there, so I think they could agree on a price that might be less than what he'd take from other teams, but still a substantial amount that the Yankees can afford. He'd be a serviceable #3 (or 4 depending on Johnson) there. Again, it's just a hunch, but I've heard very little about the Yankees chasing any other big-name pitcher. They've surprised in the past, but still it's odd since the Yankees typically come up in rumors for every major free agent on earth.
    There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.

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    Re: Kyle Lohse

    What I really want to talk about is Kyle's G/F #'s and K #'s. Is it posssible that he has gone through an Identity crisis? I'm not that familiar with the Twins pitching coach situation, was there a change somewhere between 2002 and 2005? It seems odd that a pitcher can change that much, 2 less k's a game, but a .52 change in his G/F ratio? If we can get him back to 2005 form, with or MI defence, nd a switch to the NL. A sub 4 ERA doesn't sound all that far fetched.

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    Re: Kyle Lohse

    Quote Originally Posted by Willy View Post
    What I really want to talk about is Kyle's G/F #'s and K #'s. Is it posssible that he has gone through an Identity crisis? I'm not that familiar with the Twins pitching coach situation, was there a change somewhere between 2002 and 2005? It seems odd that a pitcher can change that much, 2 less k's a game, but a .52 change in his G/F ratio? If we can get him back to 2005 form, with or MI defence, nd a switch to the NL. A sub 4 ERA doesn't sound all that far fetched.
    Lohse has never been a K pitcher. And not enough of a GB pitcher to make much difference.

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    Re: Kyle Lohse

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Lohse has never been a K pitcher. And not enough of a GB pitcher to make much difference.
    It just seemed like a strange trend to me. Maybe I'm looking at something that isn't that big of a deal.

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    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Kyle Lohse

    It just seemed like a strange trend to me. Maybe I'm looking at something that isn't that big of a deal.
    I think it's an interesting thought and something worth keeping an eye on. My gut would say that he fancies himself a strikeout pitcher and perhaps the Minnesota staff didn't feel the same and asked him to change his approach. He tried it and wasn't K'ing enough guys for his liking (or felt he wasn't being true to himself) and it became a point of contention between the 2 thus cometh the "Doghouse".

    It's really not all that different from what the Reds (and every other team) experienced with Brett Tomko. Young pitchers sometimes have this issue. I guess what it boils down to is if he can have success doing things "his way" then fine but if not he is always gonna have trouble until he embraces the idea of actually becoming a pitcher. I think that he showed me enough to think that he may have it right, he has some good stuff. But this next season will show whether he's right or not.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

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    Re: Kyle Lohse

    Rijo I agree I to believe Lohse is better than most here give him credit for.Give him a season here and see what he can do.Hes young and throws hard thats a pretty good combo in todays game.He can learn to be more in the zone and mind strong.

    FCB why do you hate Lohses game so much?He didnt pitch bad enough for Cincy for you to dislike it this much.


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