How are our minor leaguers at defense?

[dougdirt]

Well, for a long time there was really no defensive stat you could even look at for minor league guys outside of fielding percentage. Well over at minorleaguesplits.com they came up with a way to create a defensive stat system. Anyways, I just thought I would give some guys a heads up, becuase personally I really enjoy it so far. They dont have a system yet for pitchers, catchers or first basemen, but everyone else should be available.

Anyways, he is a little sample of some Reds prospects.
IP=innings played, Pl=plays made, +/- plays made above average, /150=plays made above average per 150 games

Jay Bruce
Pos 	IP 	Pl 	+/- 	/150
CF 	362.0 	98 	11 	42
RF 	452.7 	90 	1 	2

Drew Stubbs
Pos 	IP 	Pl 	+/- 	/150
CF 	455.7 	121 	14 	41

Chris Valaika
Pos 	IP 	Pl 	+/- 	/150
SS 	572.7 	171 	9 	21

Javon Moran
RF 	303.3 	84 	22 	97


Paul Janish
Pos 	 IP 	Pl 	+/- 	/150
SS 	 206.3 	70 	11 	70   Dayton
SS 	 725.3 	219 	2 	3    Sarasota
SS 	 965.7 	302 	16 	22   Totals


Chris Dickerson
Pos 	IP 	Pl 	+/- 	/150
CF 	949.0 	250 	11 	15

[Willy]

Pretty cool stuff Doug.

So am I reading this right, Jay Bruce is a better CF than RF?

Thanks

[dougdirt]

Much better. Probably has to do with the fact he has probably played CF his entire life, you can read the ball better off the bat and he is just more comfortable there. He shared time with Szymanski in CF, but I am not sure why. Szymanski, by the same system is a +1 defender in CF while Jay is a +42 defender....

[mth123]

Good stuff. Not sure I understand Janish' numbers.

[dougdirt]

Ahh, forgot to put Dayton and Sarasota. In Dayton he was +70, in Sarasota, just a +3. Overall he was a +22 defender.

[dougdirt]

Oh, just something to kick around. The Reds wanted to improve the defense at SS, so they signed a good gloved guy who cant hit his way out of a wet paper bag.....
Ray Olmedo hit .283/.344/.373 last season in AAA Louisville. He was a +32 defender at SS. Ontop of that, he would cost about 4.6 million less than Alex Gonzalez. Just something to kick around....

[mth123]

Ahh, forgot to put Dayton and Sarasota. In Dayton he was +70, in Sarasota, just a +3. Overall he was a +22 defender.

Ok. I understand then.

This would suggest that Valaika (+21) who has been regarded as a guy who wouldn't be able to stay at SS and Janisch (+22) who is regarded as major league ready defensively are about the same. Does that mean Valaika has a chance to be a SS of the future or does it just mean that Janish is over-rated defensively?

Moran at +97 seems real high. He must be the 2nd coming of Paul Blair or Garry Maddox in the field.

[dougdirt]

mth, I have to admit, I do not know if these are league adjusted or not. If they are not, keep in mind that Janish played in high A most of the year, with more polished guys and that Valaika played in rookie ball, where some guys are just 18-20 and very unpolished at times. I will do a little digging and see if I can find if the numbers are actually league adjusted.

Moran is the extreme on both ends. In RF he was +97, while in CF he was -82. Very strange. Javon played just 400 innings between the two positions though....not a very large sample at all. That could be toying with the numbers quite a bit, or maybe he just isnt very good in CF, but can cover a ton of ground comparably in the corner....