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Thread: Dunn Rumor!!

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    Dunn Rumor!!

    Inflated market could benefit Pirates
    Team feels wildness of free agency will enhance value of trade pieces
    Sunday, November 26, 2006

    By Dejan Kovacevic, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette


    Nam Y. Huh, Associated Press
    Forty-plus home runs make Adam Dunn attractive, but his $10.5 million salary dulls the shine.
    Click photo for larger image.

    Related article


    Hot Stove: Morgan speeds from rink to 40-man roster









    As Major League Baseball's outrageous offseason of spending hits fresh peaks almost daily, the Pirates -- silent as can be -- appear to be no more than an afterthought.

    And it just might stay that way.

    Or not.

    Ask general manager Dave Littlefield, and he still recites a wish list for a left-handed power hitter to play first base or right field, a right-handed starting pitcher, a right-handed reliever, a long reliever and a backup middle infielder.

    He does allow that the power hitter, the most valuable of those commodities, probably will have to come through trade. But he firmly rejects the notion that the Pirates cannot be players in this manic environment for player acquisition.

    To the contrary, Littlefield points out -- and it is a difficult view to dispute -- that the players he can trade are made more valuable with each signing that sends the free-agent market deeper into orbit.

    "Sure, it's going to help us," Littlefield said. "You've got to go someplace to get players. If the free-agent market gets expensive, you would think, in general, that the trade market would increase, as well, as far as value."

    Asked if he might be put off by the free-agent market, he replied, "No. It's just something you have to be aware of, to put your strategies together to acquire what you need relative to your resources."

    So, what is going on with the Pirates' offseason?

    For the most part, it seems, not a whole lot yet.

    One agent who represents a player in the Pirates' power-hitting mold was asked if he had heard from the team and answered, "Pittsburgh? Not this year."

    Another agent who spoke to three general managers in the past week said the Pirates are not coming up in trade talks, either.

    That could change, though, particularly in regard to the power hitter, as the Pirates are believed to be narrowing their focus to a handful of possible trade targets.

    One slugger they have discussed internally is the Cincinnati Reds' Adam Dunn, who owns one of the game's most potent bats when he makes contact. Despite a .234 average and 194 strikeouts, Dunn, 26, had 40 home runs -- his third season in a row of 40-plus -- along with 92 RBIs.

    But it appears unlikely that the Pirates will go this route, partly because Dunn would make $10.5 million next season, partly because they sound reluctant to add strikeouts to a team that ranked fourth in the National League in that category last season.

    Littlefield was asked how heavily strikeouts will be weighed in his choice and replied: "I'd say we have a fair amount of strikeouts in our lineup, and I'd like to have someone with less strikeouts who gets on base, ideally. But you have to deal with what's available."

    Another player the Pirates are considering is the Colorado Rockies' Brad Hawpe, 26, who can play right field or first base. He is coming off his first full season, one in which he batted .293 with 22 home runs and 84 RBIs. He also showed a good eye in drawing 73 walks, helping boost his on-base percentage to .383.

    Whatever the case, the power hitter is "more likely" to come through trade, Littlefield said, largely because there are so few in free agency who fit the bill. Aubrey Huff, late of the Houston Astros, might be the only one, and the Pirates are not pursuing him.

    The starter could come through free agency, Littlefield said, though the field of affordable talent there is slim, too. Ordinary pitchers such as Gil Meche and Vicente Padilla should command annual salaries of more than $8 million. And those in the price tier below them might not be not much better than what the Pirates could have by retaining Shawn Chacon.

    One familiar name in the latter tier is Kip Wells, but he will not return to Pittsburgh, agent Randy Hendricks said.

    The utility infielder is likely to come from the outside, Littlefield said. But he said the right-handed reliever and long man could emerge from a pack that includes Josh Sharpless, Jonah Bayliss, Marty McLeary, Shane Youman and Chacon.

    What do the Pirates have to give?

    For one, they have more money than initially thought.

    When owner Kevin McClatchy revealed in September that payroll would remain "flat," it was generally accepted that it would stay at about $46 million, the final spending figure for 2006. But Littlefield said this week it will be closer to $50 million, referring to it as "fifty-ish" and an increase over last year.

    The breakdown so far: The team has $11.8 million committed to three signed players. An additional $6 million will be committed if the team keeps Chacon through arbitration and exercises a $3 million option on reliever Damaso Marte, each of which appears more likely to happen than not. Five other arbitration-eligible players should earn about $15 million combined. The rest will make close to the minimum $380,000.

    That scenario projects payroll to roughly $36 million and leaves about $14 million to spend.

    The other asset the Pirates have -- plenty of pitching -- could be more valuable than cash in this market. Any of their four young starters -- Zach Duke, Ian Snell, Tom Gorzelanny and Paul Maholm -- would fetch a fine return in a trade. And the same would be true of late-inning relievers Mike Gonzalez and Salomon Torres, especially given the wild spending on bullpen help this offseason.

    It does not sound as if it will be easy to pry a starter from Littlefield, though.

    "It's likely that we won't talk trade for any of those four starters," he said. "I just think it's too valuable a commodity, and I have a lot of faith in these guys becoming even better and helping us go where we want to go. You never say never, but I'd say trading any of them is unrealistic."



    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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  3. #2
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    Re: Dunn Rumor!!

    Quote Originally Posted by sixfigure View Post
    Inflated market could benefit Pirates
    Team feels wildness of free agency will enhance value of trade pieces
    Sunday, November 26, 2006

    By Dejan Kovacevic, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette


    Nam Y. Huh, Associated Press
    Forty-plus home runs make Adam Dunn attractive, but his $10.5 million salary dulls the shine.
    Click photo for larger image.

    Related article


    Hot Stove: Morgan speeds from rink to 40-man roster









    As Major League Baseball's outrageous offseason of spending hits fresh peaks almost daily, the Pirates -- silent as can be -- appear to be no more than an afterthought.

    And it just might stay that way.

    Or not.

    Ask general manager Dave Littlefield, and he still recites a wish list for a left-handed power hitter to play first base or right field, a right-handed starting pitcher, a right-handed reliever, a long reliever and a backup middle infielder.

    He does allow that the power hitter, the most valuable of those commodities, probably will have to come through trade. But he firmly rejects the notion that the Pirates cannot be players in this manic environment for player acquisition.

    To the contrary, Littlefield points out -- and it is a difficult view to dispute -- that the players he can trade are made more valuable with each signing that sends the free-agent market deeper into orbit.

    "Sure, it's going to help us," Littlefield said. "You've got to go someplace to get players. If the free-agent market gets expensive, you would think, in general, that the trade market would increase, as well, as far as value."

    Asked if he might be put off by the free-agent market, he replied, "No. It's just something you have to be aware of, to put your strategies together to acquire what you need relative to your resources."

    So, what is going on with the Pirates' offseason?

    For the most part, it seems, not a whole lot yet.

    One agent who represents a player in the Pirates' power-hitting mold was asked if he had heard from the team and answered, "Pittsburgh? Not this year."

    Another agent who spoke to three general managers in the past week said the Pirates are not coming up in trade talks, either.

    That could change, though, particularly in regard to the power hitter, as the Pirates are believed to be narrowing their focus to a handful of possible trade targets.

    One slugger they have discussed internally is the Cincinnati Reds' Adam Dunn, who owns one of the game's most potent bats when he makes contact. Despite a .234 average and 194 strikeouts, Dunn, 26, had 40 home runs -- his third season in a row of 40-plus -- along with 92 RBIs.

    But it appears unlikely that the Pirates will go this route, partly because Dunn would make $10.5 million next season, partly because they sound reluctant to add strikeouts to a team that ranked fourth in the National League in that category last season.

    Littlefield was asked how heavily strikeouts will be weighed in his choice and replied: "I'd say we have a fair amount of strikeouts in our lineup, and I'd like to have someone with less strikeouts who gets on base, ideally. But you have to deal with what's available."

    Another player the Pirates are considering is the Colorado Rockies' Brad Hawpe, 26, who can play right field or first base. He is coming off his first full season, one in which he batted .293 with 22 home runs and 84 RBIs. He also showed a good eye in drawing 73 walks, helping boost his on-base percentage to .383.

    Whatever the case, the power hitter is "more likely" to come through trade, Littlefield said, largely because there are so few in free agency who fit the bill. Aubrey Huff, late of the Houston Astros, might be the only one, and the Pirates are not pursuing him.

    The starter could come through free agency, Littlefield said, though the field of affordable talent there is slim, too. Ordinary pitchers such as Gil Meche and Vicente Padilla should command annual salaries of more than $8 million. And those in the price tier below them might not be not much better than what the Pirates could have by retaining Shawn Chacon.

    One familiar name in the latter tier is Kip Wells, but he will not return to Pittsburgh, agent Randy Hendricks said.

    The utility infielder is likely to come from the outside, Littlefield said. But he said the right-handed reliever and long man could emerge from a pack that includes Josh Sharpless, Jonah Bayliss, Marty McLeary, Shane Youman and Chacon.

    What do the Pirates have to give?

    For one, they have more money than initially thought.

    When owner Kevin McClatchy revealed in September that payroll would remain "flat," it was generally accepted that it would stay at about $46 million, the final spending figure for 2006. But Littlefield said this week it will be closer to $50 million, referring to it as "fifty-ish" and an increase over last year.

    The breakdown so far: The team has $11.8 million committed to three signed players. An additional $6 million will be committed if the team keeps Chacon through arbitration and exercises a $3 million option on reliever Damaso Marte, each of which appears more likely to happen than not. Five other arbitration-eligible players should earn about $15 million combined. The rest will make close to the minimum $380,000.

    That scenario projects payroll to roughly $36 million and leaves about $14 million to spend.

    The other asset the Pirates have -- plenty of pitching -- could be more valuable than cash in this market. Any of their four young starters -- Zach Duke, Ian Snell, Tom Gorzelanny and Paul Maholm -- would fetch a fine return in a trade. And the same would be true of late-inning relievers Mike Gonzalez and Salomon Torres, especially given the wild spending on bullpen help this offseason.

    It does not sound as if it will be easy to pry a starter from Littlefield, though.

    "It's likely that we won't talk trade for any of those four starters," he said. "I just think it's too valuable a commodity, and I have a lot of faith in these guys becoming even better and helping us go where we want to go. You never say never, but I'd say trading any of them is unrealistic."



    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Strikeouts?

    And people wonder why the Pirates suck ass.

    Seriously, just contract that pathetic franchise.

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    Re: Dunn Rumor!!

    The 29, soon to be 30, year old Aubrey Huff just might add some offense for the Reds if they decided to trade Dunn for pitching.

    In '06 he had a .267 BA, .344 OBP, and .469 SLG.

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    Re: Dunn Rumor!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Far East View Post
    The 29, soon to be 30, year old Aubrey Huff just might add some offense for the Reds if they decided to trade Dunn for pitching.

    In '06 he had a .267 BA, .344 OBP, and .469 SLG.
    If they do trade Dunn, I certainly hope it's NOT to the Pirates. They have nothing I want.

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    Re: Dunn Rumor!!

    Sounds like the Pirates DON'T want Dunn--they discussed it internally, and seem to be saying he doesn't fit into their idea of what they want.
    "Don't trust any statistics you did not fake yourself."--Winston Churchill

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    Re: Dunn Rumor!!

    This is the third time I've seen something about the Phillies looking for a middle of the order bopper. If no impact bats can be found, I'd look there for a possible trading partner. How about Dunn and Ross for Cole Hamels, JA Happ, and Pat Burrell? Solid #3 starter (and a lefty) that's cheap, a prospect with good upside, and a bopper in return. With the roughly $6.5 million savings, Cincinnati could always grab Wilson or Delucci and put Pat the Bat at 1B, strengthening the bench (and allowing Burrell days off against tough RH pitchers). Work for anyone else?

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    Re: Dunn Rumor!!

    I'm not sure that there is a team in MLB, except for maybe the Marlins or Rays, that would not take Dunn at his current contract. I don't know why everyone seems to thing he is trade bait.

    He is the best player on the Reds and is signed for far lower that what it would cost to replace his production. I am sick of the media beating this like a dead horse.

    Wayne Krivsky has never said or done anything to lead me to believe that Adam Dunn would be available at any less than a premium price. If you don't think Dunn is worth 10.5 million to the Reds then something wrong with the logic.

    JUAN PIERRE JUST GOT 9 MILLION PER FOR 5 YEARS.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

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    Re: Dunn Rumor!!

    Dunn has an old ballplayer skill set, a la Tom Brunansky.

    But to say he's the best player on the team? Not last season.

    Harang had a better year.
    So did Arroyo.
    Arguably, so did Aurillia.
    And Ross.

    Dunn is a good-to-very good ballplayer as is. He creates a ton of runs. When he's on.

    But...
    the last half season was truly horrid.

    his hitting philosophy has been more of a grip and rip than actually working on the craft of hitting. I, like many Reds fans, hope Dunn can put together a season wherein he can improve as a hitter. Unfortunately, there are signs that point to that being improbable.

    Dunn, right now, is pretty good.

    He's worth a #3 starter and a solid to above average bat.

    If you're expecting anything more than that in a deal, IMO, you don't know his worth around the league. K's matter (if only in public perception). Batting average matters. Attitude matters.

    How much? Idon'tknow.

    It's not really quantifiable. But his perceived value by many Red's fans, IMO, is ridiculous.

    Just because he's your favorite players doesn't mean he's worth more to the A's or the Angels.

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    Re: Dunn Rumor!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    If they do trade Dunn, I certainly hope it's NOT to the Pirates. They have nothing I want.
    what|?? i would take Jason Bay and Zach Duke in a heartbeat for Dunn..

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    Re: Dunn Rumor!!

    Hyperbole, thy name is FCB.

    I'd deal Dunn straight up for Bay.

    In a hearbeat.

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    Re: Dunn Rumor!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Jpup View Post
    I'm not sure that there is a team in MLB, except for maybe the Marlins or Rays, that would not take Dunn at his current contract. I don't know why everyone seems to thing he is trade bait.

    He is the best player on the Reds and is signed for far lower that what it would cost to replace his production. I am sick of the media beating this like a dead horse.

    Wayne Krivsky has never said or done anything to lead me to believe that Adam Dunn would be available at any less than a premium price. If you don't think Dunn is worth 10.5 million to the Reds then something wrong with the logic.

    JUAN PIERRE JUST GOT 9 MILLION PER FOR 5 YEARS.
    Well, I just looked at the NL MVP voting, and Dunn did not receive 1 vote (Bronson Arroyo received 1). I'm not so sure the baseball community in general is as enthusiastic about Dunn as you may think. I recently read one baseball executive as saying, "He has prodigious power, but the strikeouts are brutal and the defense is brutal." Don't get me wrong though, I'm sure a good many teams will take a flyer on Dunn, especially now that most of the stick is off the free agent market.
    "Don't trust any statistics you did not fake yourself."--Winston Churchill

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    Re: Dunn Rumor!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Dunn has an old ballplayer skill set, a la Tom Brunansky.

    But to say he's the best player on the team? Not last season.

    Harang had a better year.
    So did Arroyo.
    Arguably, so did Aurillia.
    And Ross.

    Dunn is a good-to-very good ballplayer as is. He creates a ton of runs. When he's on.

    But...
    the last half season was truly horrid.

    his hitting philosophy has been more of a grip and rip than actually working on the craft of hitting. I, like many Reds fans, hope Dunn can put together a season wherein he can improve as a hitter. Unfortunately, there are signs that point to that being improbable.

    Dunn, right now, is pretty good.

    He's worth a #3 starter and a solid to above average bat.

    If you're expecting anything more than that in a deal, IMO, you don't know his worth around the league. K's matter (if only in public perception). Batting average matters. Attitude matters.

    How much? Idon'tknow.

    It's not really quantifiable. But his perceived value by many Red's fans, IMO, is ridiculous.

    Just because he's your favorite players doesn't mean he's worth more to the A's or the Angels.
    Just because you think he strikes out too much doesn't mean that teams are not highly interested. There is a reason that his name keeps coming up. EVERYONE would like to have him. To believe anything else would be naive.

    Tom Brunansky I was going to post a side by side of their stats, but that's not even worth doing. You have been around here long enough to know that is laughable.

    If Carlos Lee is worth 100 million in this market, Adam Dunn has to be worth, at least, that.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

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    Re: Dunn Rumor!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Wheelhouse View Post
    Well, I just looked at the NL MVP voting, and Dunn did not receive 1 vote (Bronson Arroyo received 1). I'm not so sure the baseball community in general is as enthusiastic about Dunn as you may think. I recently read one baseball executive as saying, "He has prodigious power, but the strikeouts are brutal and the defense is brutal." Don't get me wrong though, I'm sure a good many teams will take a flyer on Dunn, especially now that most of the stick is off the free agent market.
    He didn't have enough RBIs. (see AL MVP) How many did Aaron Harang get? How many Cy Young votes did Harang get?
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

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    Re: Dunn Rumor!!

    Shrug.

    The Brunansky comparables are not about numbers. It's a Bill James thing. He explained Old Player skills (power, OBP, low BA) through the example of Brunansky. Dunn, like Kevin Maas, Bruno, Balboni, Kittle, pre-Andro McGuire, et al, has those skills.

    Does he have others?

    Dunno.

    He hasn't shown them.

    I couldn't care less about strike outs. An out is an out.

    But 194 of them-- along with an extremely poor second half of 2006-- scream of a one-dimensional approach that isn't working particularly well.

    In his last 200 at-bats of the season, Dunn's OPS was below 650. 650! That's worse than Juan Castro. Thick of the pennant race and opposing teams pitched around him. Dunn struck out an amazing 76 times in those 200 or so at-bats. That's not a slump-- that's a sizeable concern. Add in the 16-30 runs he allows defensively each year and you begin to see a major problem.

    Is he worth Juan Pierre's contract? Probably. But there's warts on Dunn, too.

    He's decent. He can even be really, really good.

    He's just not as good as many think he is.

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    Re: Dunn Rumor!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Add in the 16-30 runs he allows defensively each year and you begin to see a major problem.
    Dunn's defense doesn't add that many runs. i would say 10-15 runs (which is where I'd put Carlos Lee too for that matter). problems is, five or six of the Reds other positions are in that same negative range, and in some (short and center) far worse.
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