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Thread: Are most GMs just not really very smart?

  1. #16
    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Re: Are most GMs just not really very smart?

    Quote Originally Posted by Cedric View Post
    We've all done some stupid things on here I'm sure. Can we keep that kind of thing private? I don't neg often at all, but the system is flawed if what you did happens a lot.
    I don't think it does. Some people just have bad days and take it out on others sometimes. I'm not saying that is what happened here because I have no idea. I was negged once for absolutely no reason, you know what I did? I just put the person on my ignore list and move on. We don't chat and we are better off for it. The guy has his views on things and I rarely agree with them, so I ignore it and choose to associate with people that I feel aren't out to just be disagreeable.

    ...I don't know what I just said.

    BTW, that was a very good article and it rings very true, especially this time of year. Isn't JP Riccardi more of a SABR guy? I mean c'mon, it's Royce Clayton of all people.
    Last edited by Jpup; 11-30-2006 at 02:24 AM.
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  3. #17
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Are most GMs just not really very smart?

    Like so many things in life, the dumb kids ruin everything for the rest of us.

    Because players like Matthews Jr. and Lee are signed to such obscene contracts that are completely out-of-line with the skills and numbers they bring to the table, it drives the value of other similarly situated talent through the roof and any true talent completely skyward. It makes it a lot more difficult taking fliers on guys in the hopes that they replicate great numbers when the price of being wrong is driven so high.

    Having said that, though -- if there's a market for Gary Matthews Jr. and his 1 season of good (surrounded by lots of seasons of middling), then I absolutely have to believe there's a market for David Ross out there and a chance for the Reds to take some GM for real talent in a deal.
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  4. #18
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: Are most GMs just not really very smart?

    Ltlabner,

    Statistical evaluation is nothing new. Branch Ricky says Hi.

    So called "Old School Baseball Guys" are often too stubborn or too afraid to open thier eyes to new ideas.

    They don't understand statistical evaluation, they refuse to pay any attention to it. kinda like fear of the unknown.

    A "GOOD Scout" with the eye for talent is a rare breed and just might be the most valuable asset of any successful organization.

    The Reds need good scouts and good statiistical evaluators.. and we need them to work together.
    Last edited by Ron Madden; 11-30-2006 at 04:07 AM.

  5. #19
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Are most GMs just not really very smart?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Madden View Post
    Ltlabner,

    Statistical evaluation is nothing new. Branch Ricky says Hi.

    So called "Old School Baseball Guys" are often too stubborn or too afraid to open thier eyes to new ideas.

    They don't understand statistical evaluation, they refuse to pay any attention to it. kinda like fear of the unknown.

    A "GOOD Scout" with the eye for talent is a rare breed and just might be the most valuable asset of any successful organization.

    The Reds need good scouts and good statiistical evaluators.. and we need them to work together.
    That is why I said statistical anayisis "as we know it" in my original post. The availablity of so much data to so many people is a realtitivley new thing.

    That was my whole point. These guys don't understand statistical evaluation becasuse (1) they haven't been exposed to it enough to understand it (2) they've been successfull in baseball with their own skills (3) human nature is to resist change (as you put it "fear of the unknown").
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  6. #20
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Are most GMs just not really very smart?

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool View Post
    I got negged for this post.

    The whole point of the original post was that some GM's don't make smart decisions. The original article made *exactly the same points I made*,
    While I don't agree with the negging, keep it private, IMO.
    Last edited by Ltlabner; 11-30-2006 at 08:38 PM.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  7. #21
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Are most GMs just not really very smart?

    GMs aren't very smart?

    Is that coming from the premise from some in baseball's fanbase that they think they are smarter?

    It simply illustrates IMHO that there is far more to building/operating a franchise then simple statistical analysis (which is only a small part of the whole equation).

    It's important to look up the statistical data/performance of a player; but when it comes to assigning market-worth, then I think most fans, who are on the outside looking in, aren't too qualified, and understanding of that market.

    It's not any easy job being a GM.
    Last edited by GAC; 11-30-2006 at 08:34 AM.
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  8. #22
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: Are most GMs just not really very smart?

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    GMs aren't very smart?

    Is that coming from the premise from some in baseball's fanbase that they think they are smarter?

    It simply illustrates IMHO that there is far more to building/operating a franchise then simple statistical analysis (which is only a small part of the whole equation).
    I think the article you pointed out on another thread was good in pointing out that the need for pitching is significant throughout MLB and that there is a dirth of available decent pitchers (it even noted that 3 out of 11 - the article's number - really won't be looking to join just any team) - leading teams scrambling to find players to bolster their rosters.

    I think those who have acknowledged that it might be best that we not just throw money at FA's are correct in their assessment. I want to have a system that's churning out a prospect or two a season. Remember the days when you were chomping at the bit for "so and so" gets the call up (most recently for us, it was Kearns and Dunn - now we've got that with Bailey and Votto) - I'd like that each year (who's going to be the big rookie this year?).

    Long term is the way to go (not what we've done for the last 15 years).

  9. #23
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: Are most GMs just not really very smart?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    While I don't agree with the negging, keep it private, IMO.
    I'm genuinely interested as to why this person disagrees with the assessment that some GMs are not that smart, and why he feels so passionate about it. It's relevant to the topic. It deserves discussion.
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  10. #24
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Are most GMs just not really very smart?

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool View Post
    I'm genuinely interested as to why this person disagrees with the assessment that some GMs are not that smart, and why he feels so passionate about it. It's relevant to the topic. It deserves discussion.
    If you guys want to discuss that, be my guest. But if you have a problem with rep points or if the other person cares not to discuss it in the forum, please take it private as I'm sure no one else cares about it.
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  11. #25
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Are most GMs just not really very smart?

    Sure there are alot of dumb GMs out there.

    But dumb in what sense?

    I'm not saying fans can't be critical, critique, or call out a GM when they think a stupid move/decision was made.

    That's a part of the game of baseball and in being a fan.

    But the fact of the matter is, and IMHO..... the dumbest GM is still far smarter and more experienced on how the operation of a franchise works, then the average fan who is saying he is stupid.
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

  12. #26
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Are most GMs just not really very smart?

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    Sure there are alot of dumb GMs out there.

    But dumb in what sense?
    it was rhetorical in the sense that obviously they are not dumb.

    What causes some GMs/organizations to make such high risk/low return decisions where the odds of a deal working in your favor over the entire contract are extremely small?
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  13. #27
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: Are most GMs just not really very smart?

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    What causes some GMs/organizations to make such high risk/low return decisions where the odds of a deal working in your favor over the entire contract are extremely small?
    It's just the environment, and it's probably only going to get worse. Teams have cash to spend, but the more expensive free agents get, the more they'll want to lock up their own good young players as a countermeasure before they get to free agency. The supply and demand balance is out of whack. A GM either pays the inflated prices or he doesn't play, and in certain markets with certain owners, not playing is not an option.

    Having said that, even in an inflated market some deals are dumber than others.
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  14. #28
    Member paulrichjr's Avatar
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    Re: Are most GMs just not really very smart?

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    But the fact of the matter is, and IMHO..... the dumbest GM is still far smarter and more experienced on how the operation of a franchise works, then the average fan who is saying he is stupid.
    I agree except there are obviously some dumb GMs out there. Someone that signs Gary Matthews Jr. for $50 million is obviously not real bright. I actually think some guys are worth a lot of money and have no problem with the contracts they are given but this contract is absurd. Even A-Rod's contract can be justified in my opinion. He is a star and stars bring in a lot of money so they should be paid. A guy like Gary Matthews' production can be replaced with someone for a lot cheaper than $50 million. Maybe GMs spend foolishly because it isn't their money that they are spending.
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  15. #29
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    Re: Are most GMs just not really very smart?

    I know dumb Gm's drive up the market for all players, but they also create market ineffeciencies that can be taken advantage of. When a GM spends this much for a player that, in turn, means there areas in which a smart GM can make things work for his/her organization. Heck, if all the the GMs in the NL central wanna overspend on players that contribute negatively toward their team --then i'm all for it.

  16. #30
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Are most GMs just not really very smart?

    Quote Originally Posted by Cooper View Post
    I know dumb Gm's drive up the market for all players, but they also create market ineffeciencies that can be taken advantage of.
    the entire market between stars and minimum salary players is inefficent for the most part. The stars deserve their money, the problem is there are a lot of not even very good players getting paid like stars. Depodesta was once quoted that the key to success in baseball was solving the the inefficency in the middle.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand


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