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Thread: Hope for the 2007 offense

  1. #1
    ZCTRMTP!!!!!
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    Hope for the 2007 offense

    I was messing around with various Run Estimation Formulas and came to the conclusion that even if the Reds' offense puts up the same counting stats they should score about 40 more runs in 2007 than they did in 2006. For whatever reason :cough: (clutch) :cough: the Reds scored a lot fewer runs than any of the Run Estimators predicted. One point of interest is the Lineup Analysis. (On the attachment this is BMLA). This is a feature on www.BaseballMusings.com. You put in the OBP and the SLG for all nine hitters and it gives you how many runs per game the best, the worst and average lineups would have scored. Using the Reds OPS and SLG numbers per lineup position for 2006 showed that the worst possible lineup would have scored 4.62 runs per game. This is exactly what the Reds average run per game was last year. Yikes! Jerry Narron might take a good long look at his lineup construction next year.
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  3. #2
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Hope for the 2007 offense

    Quote Originally Posted by texasdave View Post
    Using the Reds OPS and SLG numbers per lineup position for 2006 showed that the worst possible lineup would have scored 4.62 runs per game. This is exactly what the Reds average run per game was last year. Yikes! Jerry Narron might take a good long look at his lineup construction next year.
    No doubt about it, Jerry maximized his minimization of the talent he had on hand.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  4. #3
    Member Strikes Out Looking's Avatar
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    Re: Hope for the 2007 offense

    As I've said before, a monkey pulling names out of a hat could have managed the 06 Reds to an 80-82 record. TexasDave's numbers prove my point.
    Win the Division

  5. #4
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Hope for the 2007 offense

    a lot of times the difference between what should have happened versus what actually did is nothing more than randomness.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  6. #5
    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
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    Re: Hope for the 2007 offense

    The Reds need to bunt more in 2007. That will spike run scoring.

  7. #6
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Hope for the 2007 offense

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    The Reds need to bunt more in 2007. That will spike run scoring.
    ... and take less walks. Swing the damn bat.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  8. #7
    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
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    Re: Hope for the 2007 offense

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    ... and take less walks. Swing the damn bat.
    Swinging the bat more should produce more sac flies and productive outs. A necessity in today's game.

  9. #8
    You know his story Redsland's Avatar
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    Re: Hope for the 2007 offense

    It wouldn't kill them to choke up a little, too.
    Makes all the routine posts.

  10. #9
    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
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    Re: Hope for the 2007 offense

    What I think you all are saying is we need to play "small ball" and have a team of "baseball guys"

  11. #10
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    Re: Hope for the 2007 offense

    Quote Originally Posted by RedLegSuperStar View Post
    What I think you all are saying is we need to play "small ball" and have a team of "baseball guys"
    Absolutely. Small ball rocks. Especially when playing in a HR park.

  12. #11
    My clutch is broken RichRed's Avatar
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    Re: Hope for the 2007 offense

    Quote Originally Posted by RedLegSuperStar View Post
    What I think you all are saying is we need to play "small ball" and have a team of "baseball guys"
    ...Guys who know how to put their socks on "the right way."
    "I can make all the stadiums rock."
    -Air Supply

  13. #12
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    Re: Hope for the 2007 offense

    But don't lose sight of the fact that based on the Pythagoran they should have gone 76-86 with their RS/RA. So, they were unlucky that they should have scored more runs, but lucky that they won more than they should have anyway.

    If you're right about the 40 runs, instead of a -53 run differential we'd have a -13 run differential. Still a slight losing record. And that's before we account for Aurilia being gone and Gonzo, Castro and Bubba being given AB's.


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