Baserunning outs

[mth123]

There were 35 players who stole 20 or more bases in 2006. Attached is a list showing the outs made on the bases for these players with a % of outs made to steals plus outs made. The lower the % the more successful the baserunner. The normal rule of thumb is that a player should be successful about 75% of the time. This rule does not take pick-offs into account. Using this rule with pick-offs included suggests that only the top 17 or about half of these guys should be running.

Rank	NAME	         OBP   	SB	CS	PKOFF	outs	outs %
1	Jimmy Rollins	0.334	36	4	0	4	10.0%
2	Chris Duffy	0.317	26	1	2	3	10.3%
3	Ichiro Suzuki	0.370	45	2	5	7	13.5%
4	Coco Crisp	0.317	22	4	0	4	15.4%
5	Orlando Cabrera	0.335	27	3	2	5	15.6%
6	Br Phillips	0.324	25	2	3	5	16.7%
7	Carl Crawford	0.348	58	9	4	13	18.3%
8	Dave Roberts	0.360	49	6	6	12	19.7%
9	Kenny Lofton	0.360	32	5	3	8	20.0%
10	David Wright	0.381	20	5	0	5	20.0%
11	Derek Jeter	0.417	34	5	4	9	20.9%
12	Corey Patterson	0.314	45	9	3	12	21.1%
13	Eric Byrnes	0.313	25	3	4	7	21.9%
14	Josh Barfield	0.318	21	5	1	6	22.2%
15	Felipe Lopez	0.358	44	12	1	13	22.8%
16	Bobby Abreu	0.424	30	6	3	9	23.1%
17	Hanley Ramirez	0.353	51	15	2	17	25.0%
18	Omar Vizquel	0.361	24	7	2	9	27.3%
19	Chone Figgins	0.336	52	16	4	20	27.8%
20	Brian Roberts	0.347	36	7	7	14	28.0%
21	Jose Reyes	0.354	64	17	8	25	28.1%
22	Rafael Furcal	0.369	37	13	2	15	28.8%
23	Grady Sizemore	0.375	22	6	3	9	29.0%
24	Juan Pierre	0.330	58	20	6	26	31.0%
25	Joey Gathright	0.321	22	9	2	11	33.3%
26	Johnny Damon	0.359	25	10	3	13	34.2%
27	Julio Lugo	0.341	24	9	4	13	35.1%
28	Willy Taveras	0.333	33	9	9	18	35.3%
29	Mike Cameron	0.355	25	9	5	14	35.9%
30	Luis Castillo	0.358	25	11	3	14	35.9%
31	Ryan Freel	0.363	37	11	10	21	36.2%
32	Alfonso Soriano	0.351	41	17	7	24	36.9%
33	Carlos Guillen	0.400	20	9	3	12	37.5%
34	Scott Podsednik	0.331	40	19	11	30	42.9%
35	Alfredo Amezaga	0.332	20	12	3	15	42.9%

[Highlifeman21]

I always love it when data tells me something I already knew!

Lopez isn't/wasn't a basestealing threat. He doesn't have the overall speed, but was a smart base stealer, so to that I give him credit.

What immediately jumped out, that I already had that lingering hunch, was that Ryan Freel is a blatantly liability on the base paths. When you get caught 11 times, and picked off another 10 times, you're not helping your team.

[mth123]

I always love it when data tells me something I already knew!

Lopez isn't/wasn't a basestealing threat. He doesn't have the overall speed, but was a smart base stealer, so to that I give him credit.

What immediately jumped out, that I already had that lingering hunch, was that Ryan Freel is a blatantly liability on the base paths. When you get caught 11 times, and picked off another 10 times, you're not helping your team.

What I notice is that guys who are pretty good all around players like Rollins, Ichiro and Crawford are at the top of this list and base stealing specialists like Podsednik, Tavares and Castillo are near the bottom. What I read into that is that some guys get way too much playing time simply because they are fast and may not really be the best players inlcuding base running skills. The more well rounded players seem more successful. Is it because they are better smarter players, or does the defense just pay less attention to them?

Ability to steal a base when needed is a great weapon for the arsenal. To me it doesn't seem like its the entire basis for a guy's game and guys who build their entire game around stealing bases can hurt as much or more than they can help. Many people complain a lot when a HR hitter strikes out swinging for the fences, but when a base stealer gets thrown out, those are ok because its hustle. I don't buy it. Outs on the bases are outs too and many times are made by players who add very little else.

[Dunner44]

Props to Phillips... he was near the top of the list.

I definitely noticed during the season that Freel would get CS or picked off far too often. There was one game, if my memory serves correctly, where he got on base three times, and was picked off twice (or maybe a pickoff and a CS).

That said, I think Freel CAN be a smart baserunner, he just has a tendency to get overaggressive (You don't get 5 in one game without being smart). He also had the second highest pickoff numbers of that top 35, which says he takes a big lead off often enough for it to be a problem.

[M2]

Freel had a freaky year with the pickoffs. If previous years he was one of the best in baseball at taking an extra base and at scoring once he got on base. Don't know how he ranked in those last year.

Lopez did awfully well for a guy who isn't/wasn't a basestealing threat.

I agree that pickoffs should count as part of player's CS totals.

71% is the traditional Jamesian measurement of when SBs begin to help your your offense.

Ichiro could steal 100 bases if he put his mind to it. Carl Crawford is probably the most dangerous base stealer in the game though. He's crazy fast.

[flyer85]

and for those who thought Soriano's speed is a big asset on the bases. The SB is a category that can pump up you salary and do little else unless you are swiping at a very high rate.

[mth123]

Freel had a freaky year with the pickoffs. If previous years he was one of the best in baseball at taking an extra base and at scoring once he got on base. Don't know how he ranked in those last year.

You're right. But Freel is on the wrong side of 30 now and won't be a part of the team when they can really be good. His offense was a lot more valuable in the IF and he won't be playing there now. Given the market for Lead-off CF, I still say he's the guy to go. Sell high (or at least the perception of high). Even in 2004 and 2005 he made too many outs on the bases for my taste.

	OBP	SB	CS	PKOFF	outs	outs %
2004	0.375	37	10	5	15	28.8%
2005	0.371	36	10	6	16	30.8%
2006	0.363	37	11	10	21	36.2%

[Team Clark]

The only two names that really suprised me were Furcal and Reyes. Reyes is young and not that far off the mark. Furcal on the other hand was a bit of a shocker to me. Great post. Love the info.

[gonelong]

The normal rule of thumb is that a player should be successful about 75% of the time.
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I think that rule of thumb is only interesting in a very vauge sense. The situation determines the Risk/Reward. I'd also point out that a 75% success ratio might slow you down against a lousy pitcher (you'll likely get your runs anyway, no reason to risk a runner), but a 65% rate against a Clemons type might who has a 2.30 ERA might be enough to get you running.

GL

If you plug the following into Win expectancy ...

Team: Visitor
inning: 1st
Outs: 0
Bases: 1st
Score diff: )
EP% .504 Get caught stealing, then its .435 (-.069)
EP% .504 Successful SB then its .531 (+.027)

Team: Visitor
inning: 1st
Outs: 2
Bases: 1st
Score diff: )
EP% .433 Get caught stealing, then its .409 (-.024)
EP% .433 Successful SB then its .440 (+.007)

Team: Visitor
inning: 9th
Outs: 0
Bases: 1st
Score diff: )
EP% .571 Get caught stealing, then its .425 (-.146)
EP% .571 Successful SB then its .677 (+.106)

Team: Visitor
inning: 9th
Outs: 2
Bases: 1st
Score diff: )
EP% .408 Get caught stealing, then its .352 (-.056)
EP% .408 Successful SB then its .470 (+.062)