Aurilia Draft Choice Expectations....

[texasdave]

Since the Reds are probably going to receive the 36th and 62nd draft choices as a result of the Giants' signing of Rich Aurilia I looked up just what those draft choice positions normally yield. Here are the 36th and 62nd draft choices for the years 1986 to 1999. I stopped at 1999 because I figured anyone drafted from 2000 on really hasn't had a legitimate chance at establishing themselves at the major league level.

1986
36 - Erik Hanson - solid ML starter 1 all-star appearance.
62 - Rod Robertson - never made it out of minors.

1987
36 - Nathan Minchey - never made it out of minors.
62 - Alex Arias - major league sub.

1988
36 - Tim Morrow - never made it out of minors.
62 - Billy Ashley - major league sub.

1989
36 - Mike Milchin - major league sub.
62 - Kevin Castleberry - never made it out of minors.

1990
36 - Kirk Dressendorfer - major league sub. 62 - Chris Weinke - never made it out of minors. *won heismann trophy

1991
36 - Bobby Jones - solid major league starter.
62 - Terrell Lowery - major league sub.

1992
36 - Michael Moore - never made it out of minors.
62- A.J. Hinch - major league sub.

1993
36 - Willie Adams - major league sub.
62 - Scott Sullivan - solid major league reliever.

1994
36 - Brad Rigby - major league sub.
62 - John Crowther - never made it out of minors.

1995
36 - Nate Rolison - major league sub.
62 - Greg Wooten - never made it out of minors.

1996
36 - Andy Prater - never made it out of minors.
62 - Eric Munson - major league sub.

1997
36 - Ntema Ndungidi - never made it out of minors.
62 - Jeff Weaver - solid major league starter.

1998
36 - Raphael Freeman - never made it out of minors.
62 - Jeff Goldbach - never made it out of minors.

1999
36 - Nick Stocks - never made it out of minors.
62 - John Thomas - never made it out of minors.

As you can see there is a small chance that you can get a solid major leaguer with these choices (Hanson, Jones, Sullivan and Weaver). There are several major league bench players (semi-regulars). As well as a number who simply had a cup of joe in the show. So this is about what you can expect.

[Sea Ray]

Are you sure we'll get compensation? I thought the new bargaining agreement cut out FA compensation. I hope you're right

[IslandRed]

Are you sure we'll get compensation? I thought the new bargaining agreement cut out FA compensation. I hope you're right

It cut down compensation, but did not eliminate it.

[edabbs44]

Not a fair assessment, b/c you have to look around at the players available in that range and not taken in that exact spot.

[lollipopcurve]

Not a fair assessment, b/c you have to look around at the players available in that range and not taken in that exact spot.

I dunno. Texasdave threw out 14 years' worth -- I think it gives a pretty fair look at what to expect ("small chance of getting a solid major leaguer"). Though you're correct to suggest that ranges around 36 and 62 would offer added insight.

[cincyinco]

Well, the good news is this is supposed to be one of the stronger drafts in recent memory - the talent pool is deep. So hopefully we can land a quality prospect.

[Matt700wlw]

Since the Reds are probably going to receive the 36th and 62nd draft choices as a result of the Giants' signing of Rich Aurilia I looked up just what those draft choice positions normally yield. Here are the 36th and 62nd draft choices for the years 1986 to 1999. I stopped at 1999 because I figured anyone drafted from 2000 on really hasn't had a legitimate chance at establishing themselves at the major league level.

1986
36 - Erik Hanson - solid ML starter 1 all-star appearance.
62 - Rod Robertson - never made it out of minors.

1987
36 - Nathan Minchey - never made it out of minors.
62 - Alex Arias - major league sub.

1988
36 - Tim Morrow - never made it out of minors.
62 - Billy Ashley - major league sub.

1989
36 - Mike Milchin - major league sub.
62 - Kevin Castleberry - never made it out of minors.

1990
36 - Kirk Dressendorfer - major league sub. 62 - Chris Weinke - never made it out of minors. *won heismann trophy

1991
36 - Bobby Jones - solid major league starter.
62 - Terrell Lowery - major league sub.

1992
36 - Michael Moore - never made it out of minors.
62- A.J. Hinch - major league sub.

1993
36 - Willie Adams - major league sub.
62 - Scott Sullivan - solid major league reliever.

1994
36 - Brad Rigby - major league sub.
62 - John Crowther - never made it out of minors.

1995
36 - Nate Rolison - major league sub.
62 - Greg Wooten - never made it out of minors.

1996
36 - Andy Prater - never made it out of minors.
62 - Eric Munson - major league sub.

1997
36 - Ntema Ndungidi - never made it out of minors.
62 - Jeff Weaver - solid major league starter.

1998
36 - Raphael Freeman - never made it out of minors.
62 - Jeff Goldbach - never made it out of minors.

1999
36 - Nick Stocks - never made it out of minors.
62 - John Thomas - never made it out of minors.

As you can see there is a small chance that you can get a solid major leaguer with these choices (Hanson, Jones, Sullivan and Weaver). There are several major league bench players (semi-regulars). As well as a number who simply had a cup of joe in the show. So this is about what you can expect.

Doesn't look promising

[Caseyfan21]

I agree it isn't really a great assessment since there are so many variables. It just depends on how good a team's scouts are and the luck involved with the draft. If you were to look at any 2 positions on the draft board there will be a combination of great players and duds. It just depends on how good the Reds scouts are. If we were to look at a range of players taken right after those picks I'm sure you could find several All-Stars. If the Reds scouts have the ability to pick out a stud then the picks will obviously look better than if we take a complete dud. Also, if the player gets injured or whatever that can affect it. The draft tends to be too much of a crapshoot than to be able to say having a certain number pick is a good or bad thing or what the expectation should be.