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Thread: BA: Draft Order

  1. #31
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: BA: Draft Order

    Milledge has seen all of his power leave after his 19 year old season....I dont know why that is, or how it happened, but I think after his 19 year old season his stock dropped. He then turned into a high average, low power guy who has good plate discipline.

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  3. #32
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: BA: Draft Order

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Milledge has seen all of his power leave after his 19 year old season....I dont know why that is, or how it happened, but I think after his 19 year old season his stock dropped. He then turned into a high average, low power guy who has good plate discipline.
    Power can come back. He's still young and has shown talent. Add in his speed and he's worthy of top prospect status.

  4. #33
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: BA: Draft Order

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Milledge has seen all of his power leave after his 19 year old season....I dont know why that is, or how it happened, but I think after his 19 year old season his stock dropped. He then turned into a high average, low power guy who has good plate discipline.
    Milledge for his minor league career has posted: .303/.384/.473 OPS: 857.

    While its true his HR total has been lower than the season he spent in the SAL, you have to remember he has played in some pretty brutal home parks since then. Case in point-last season he was stuck in Norfolk. Norfolk is an absolute disaster for hitters essentially killing everyone's power numbers (well maybe not babe ruth).

    Here's Milledge's splits from Norfolk:

    home: 0.261/0.385/0.325 OPS: 0.710
    away: 0.293/0.391/0.560 OPS: 0.951

    Here's what Pecota projects for Milledge at Shea stadium (a pitcher's park):


    2007 .284/.356/.457
    2008 .287/.361/.467
    2009 .288/.365/.472
    2010 .290/.371/.480
    2011 .287/.368/.477

    Now consider Milledge is only 21 and already major league ready (Bill James says the great ones make to the majors at a young age). He also is good enough defensively to play centerfield....imagine those offensive numbers from your above average defensive centerfielder. Also, i'd just throw this out there.... raw power hitters rarely develop into good hitters but good hitters often develop substantial power. This kid has all of the tools, gets on base and SLGs....the homers will probably come.

    He would look awesome in the outfield at GABP. I think he has to be considered one of the better hitting prospects around right now...

    There is no way I'd trade him for 180 innings of Blanton.

  5. #34
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: BA: Draft Order

    Jojo, I know all about Milledge...he is a good hitter. I cant argue that, but my whole thing is that he isnt a top hitting prospect....he is in that second tier in my mind, becuase of his lack of power (sure his home parks have been bad, but the guy hit 0 HR at home, in 157 at bats you would think he would have had 1 if he had real power and not Sean Casey type power where it gets 5 feet over the fence).

  6. #35
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: BA: Draft Order

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Jojo, I know all about Milledge...he is a good hitter. I cant argue that, but my whole thing is that he isnt a top hitting prospect....he is in that second tier in my mind, becuase of his lack of power (sure his home parks have been bad, but the guy hit 0 HR at home, in 157 at bats you would think he would have had 1 if he had real power and not Sean Casey type power where it gets 5 feet over the fence).
    There is way more to being a top hitting prospect than simple raw power. Good hitters develop power.

    Here's another way to frame the argument that Milledge is one of the top hitting prospects around....

    Milledge's park-adjusted season totals in context with the park-adjusted league averages in '06:
    milledge: .296/.410/.464 OPS: .874
    IL ave: .259/.326/.390 OPS: .716

    Considering that comparison, he's clearly a top hitting prospect-he was head and shoulders above most everyone else in a pitchers league...

    Now consider this comparison:

    Milledge's park adjusted IL '06:
    .296/.410/.464

    major league positional average:
    '06 LF: .276/.348/.456
    '06 CF: .267/.332/.425
    '06 RF: .277/.345/.458

    Since 1 pt of OBP is worth roughly 3 pts of SLG, you can see how valuable a hitter that Milledge has the potential to be.... Heck, as shown in a previous post, Pecota projects him to be better than league average offensively in the majors at any outfield position while playing in a pitchers park in '07....at the tender age of 22. The pool of minor leaguers with that distinction is not very big.

    Anyway, thats just my humble opinion on Milledge...

  7. #36
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    Re: BA: Draft Order

    Milledge's park-adjusted season totals in context with the park-adjusted league averages in '06:
    milledge: .296/.410/.464 OPS: .874
    IL ave: .259/.326/.390 OPS: .716
    Where'd you find park adjusted numbers? Nice. I see what you're saying though. Milledge had a .409 extra base hit percentage and 1.77 doubles and triples per homerun during his low A season. His next two seasons in high A and AA, his XBP dropped to around .300 and hit around 4 doubles and triples per homerun. If the parks were bad, I could see the decrease in homerun power, but there's really no explanation for that kind of drop in XBP. In AAA last year, he was still more of a doubles hitter, but his XBP got back up to a respectable .377. If these parks are as bad as people say they are, a promotion may turn some of those doubles into homeruns and his isoP may get back to where people thought it would be. He's still only like 21, and the tools are definitely there.

    Since 1 pt of OBP is worth roughly 3 pts of SLG, you can see how valuable a hitter that Milledge has the potential to be
    It's like 1.8 according to The Hardball Times.

  8. #37
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: BA: Draft Order

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    Where'd you find park adjusted numbers? Nice. I see what you're saying though.
    minorleaguesplits.com It wont be long before these guys start charging, I bet.

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    It's like 1.8 according to The Hardball Times.
    Thanks for the correction..... Paul Depodesta's quote from moneyball is melded ito my brain

  9. #38
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    Re: BA: Draft Order

    Paul Depodesta's quote from moneyball is melded ito my brain
    I remember that. DePodesta's the man! Hee Sop Choi baby.

  10. #39
    The Latin Heartthrob Javy Pornstache's Avatar
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    Re: BA: Draft Order

    Quote Originally Posted by New Fever View Post
    Also if Scott Schoeneweis signs elsewhere the lowest that pick would be 54th.
    Just bumping this up to note that a report is out today stating Schoeneweis is close to signing with the Mets, reportedly for three years. Figured this could use a bump when talking about draft order.

  11. #40
    Moderator Gallen5862's Avatar
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    Re: BA: Draft Order

    15. Reds
    37. Reds (Rich Aurilia, A, to SF)
    52. Reds (Scott Schoeneweis, B, to NYM)
    104. Reds (Aurilia to SF)
    Those are the Reds first round pick and Supplemental picks.
    http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/askba/263133.html

    Type B free agent Scott Schoeneweis has reached a deal with the Mets, which increases the numbers of first-round compensation picks to 33. Another potential compensation choice went by the wayside when Type B Mark Mulder re-upped with the Cardinals. The updated draft order is below.

    First-Round Picks
    1. Devil Rays
    2. Royals
    3. Cubs
    4. Pirates
    5. Orioles
    6. Nationals
    7. Brewers
    8. Rockies
    9. Diamondbacks
    10. Giants
    11. Mariners
    12. Marlins
    13. Indians
    14. Braves
    15. Reds
    16. Blue Jays (Frank Catalanotto, A, to Tex)
    17. Rangers (Carlos Lee, A, to Hou)
    18. Cardinals
    19. Phillies
    20. Dodgers (Julio Lugo, A, to Bos)
    21. Blue Jays
    22. Giants (Jason Schmidt, A, to LAD)
    23. Padres
    24. Rangers (Gary Matthews Jr., A, to LAA)
    25. White Sox
    26. Athletics
    27. Tigers
    28. Twins
    29. Giants (Moises Alou, A, to NYM)
    30. Yankees
    Supplemental First-Round Picks
    31. Cubs (Juan Pierre, B, to LAD)
    32. Nationals (Alfonso Soriano, A, to ChC)
    33. Diamondbacks (Craig Counsell, B, to Mil)
    34. Giants (Alou)
    35. Mariners (Gil Meche, B, to KC)
    36. Braves (Danys Baez, A, to Bal)
    37. Reds (Rich Aurilia, A, to SF)
    38. Rangers (Lee)
    39. Cardinals (Jeff Suppan, A, to Mil)
    40. Phillies (David Dellucci, A, to Cle)
    41. Red Sox (Alex Gonzalez, B, to Cin)
    42. Blue Jays (Justin Speier, A, to LAA)
    43. Dodgers (Lugo)
    44. Padres (Woody Williams, A, to Hou)
    45. Angels (Adam Kennedy, B, to StL)
    46. Athletics (Barry Zito, A, to SF)
    47. Tigers (Jamie Walker, B, to Bal)
    48. Mets (Roberto Hernandez, A, to Cle)
    49. Nationals (Jose Guillen, B, to Sea)
    50. Diamondbacks (Miguel Batista, B, to Sea)
    51. Giants (Schmidt)
    52. Reds (Scott Schoeneweis, B, to NYM)
    53. Rangers (Matthews)
    54. Red Sox (Keith Foulke, B, to Cle)
    55. Blue Jays (Catalanotto)
    56. Padres (Dave Roberts, A, to SF)
    57. Athletics (Frank Thomas, B, to Tor)
    58. Mets (Chad Bradford, A, to Bal)
    59. Giants (Mike Stanton, B, to Cin)
    60. Rangers (Mark DeRosa, B, to ChC)
    61. Blue Jays (Ted Lilly, B, to ChC)
    62. Padres (Alan Embree, B, to Oak)
    63. Padres (Ryan Klesko, B, to SF)
    64. Diamondbacks (have yet to sign 2006 first-rounder Max Scherzer)
    Second-Round Changes
    67. Nationals (Soriano to ChC)
    69. Braves (Baez to Bal)
    71. Cardinals (Suppan to Mil)
    74. Athletics (Zito to SF)
    77. Mets (Hernandez to Cle)
    81. Padres (Williams to Hou)
    88. Blue Jays (Speier to LAA)
    Third-Round Changes
    99. Mets (Bradford to Bal)
    104. Reds (Aurilia to SF)
    107. Phillies (Dellucci to Cle)
    Fourth-Round Changes
    134. Padres (Roberts to SF)
    Remaining Compensation Free Agents
    NYY: Ron Villone (B).
    SD: Chan Ho Park (B), David Wells (B).

  12. #41
    We are the angry mob cincyinco's Avatar
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    Re: BA: Draft Order

    Thanks for the update. Good to have a nice amount of picks in such a "heralded" draft class. I hope we don't skimp on signing some top talent - as I honestly believe this the fundamental way the Reds will right the ship - and I think ownership knows that as well.

    The "twins" model of doing things... build the farm up. Well WK, here's your opportunity... don't let us Reds faithful down.
    "I hate to advocate chemicals, alcohol, violence or insanity to anyone... But they've always worked for me."

    -Hunter S. Thompson

  13. #42
    Porkchop Sandwiches DoogMinAmo's Avatar
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    Re: BA: Draft Order

    This draft will be a huge test for the new regime. Plenty of talent to fill the coiffers, plenty of picks to showcase an ability to find and develop talent, and an opportunity to show the diehard fans (because banana phoners don't care about the draft) the new ownership will put its money where its mouth is. I will be very happy if this draft turns out as well, relative to the talent level, as last year's.
    "I'm a Cucumber, I'm a cucumber. I'm a cucumber, I'm a cucumber. I'm a cucumber, I'm a cucumber. Please don't send me to the pickle farm, bum." - Brak

    Record In Games Attended, 2007: 2-1 (1-0 GAB, 1-1 Jake)

  14. #43
    Moderator Gallen5862's Avatar
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    Re: BA: Draft Order

    Is this draft suppose to be more of a pitchers draft or position players? I would love for the Reds to load up on great pitching prospects this draft and get some good bats as well.

  15. #44
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    Re: BA: Draft Order

    I just picked up the Baseball America Prospect Handbook and in the back of the book it list the signing bonus' for the '06 and '05 drafts for the top 100 picks. That got me thinking about how much we are looking at for the '07 draft in signing bonus'.

    Right now the Reds have picks 15, 37, 52, 104. In 2006 the signing bonus for around those four picks are right around 3.6 million and in 2005 it was right around 3.5 so in '07 its going to be right around that much to sign those top 4 draft picks.

    It also list the budgets for the last 4 drafts: 2003-3.1 million, 2004-4.7 million, 2005-3.8 million, and 2006-3.9 million.

    So pretty much the Reds are going to have to up the budget for the draft this year or go cheap. Do teams typically set the budget around the draft picks or do they set a budget and then draft players that fit into that?

  16. #45
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    Re: BA: Draft Order

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaknb8k View Post
    I just picked up the Baseball America Prospect Handbook and in the back of the book it list the signing bonus' for the '06 and '05 drafts for the top 100 picks. That got me thinking about how much we are looking at for the '07 draft in signing bonus'.

    Right now the Reds have picks 15, 37, 52, 104.


    So pretty much the Reds are going to have to up the budget for the draft this year or go cheap. Do teams typically set the budget around the draft picks or do they set a budget and then draft players that fit into that?
    Perhaps I am mistaken, but the Reds should also have their regular second round pick, which should be around number 78. The publications list the additional or changed picks, but don't always list the regular picks after the first round.

    So I think the Reds have 5 picks through number 103 (which is the third round choice).

    If they spend the money to sign these five selections and use them wisely, it should be a big boost to the system. I hope they do.
    Last edited by Kc61; 02-01-2007 at 12:07 PM.


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