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Thread: Aurilia Draft Choice Expectations....

  1. #1
    ZCTRMTP!!!!!
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    Aurilia Draft Choice Expectations....

    Since the Reds are probably going to receive the 36th and 62nd draft choices as a result of the Giants' signing of Rich Aurilia I looked up just what those draft choice positions normally yield. Here are the 36th and 62nd draft choices for the years 1986 to 1999. I stopped at 1999 because I figured anyone drafted from 2000 on really hasn't had a legitimate chance at establishing themselves at the major league level.

    1986
    36 - Erik Hanson - solid ML starter 1 all-star appearance.
    62 - Rod Robertson - never made it out of minors.

    1987
    36 - Nathan Minchey - never made it out of minors.
    62 - Alex Arias - major league sub.

    1988
    36 - Tim Morrow - never made it out of minors.
    62 - Billy Ashley - major league sub.

    1989
    36 - Mike Milchin - major league sub.
    62 - Kevin Castleberry - never made it out of minors.

    1990
    36 - Kirk Dressendorfer - major league sub. 62 - Chris Weinke - never made it out of minors. *won heismann trophy

    1991
    36 - Bobby Jones - solid major league starter.
    62 - Terrell Lowery - major league sub.

    1992
    36 - Michael Moore - never made it out of minors.
    62- A.J. Hinch - major league sub.

    1993
    36 - Willie Adams - major league sub.
    62 - Scott Sullivan - solid major league reliever.

    1994
    36 - Brad Rigby - major league sub.
    62 - John Crowther - never made it out of minors.

    1995
    36 - Nate Rolison - major league sub.
    62 - Greg Wooten - never made it out of minors.

    1996
    36 - Andy Prater - never made it out of minors.
    62 - Eric Munson - major league sub.

    1997
    36 - Ntema Ndungidi - never made it out of minors.
    62 - Jeff Weaver - solid major league starter.

    1998
    36 - Raphael Freeman - never made it out of minors.
    62 - Jeff Goldbach - never made it out of minors.

    1999
    36 - Nick Stocks - never made it out of minors.
    62 - John Thomas - never made it out of minors.

    As you can see there is a small chance that you can get a solid major leaguer with these choices (Hanson, Jones, Sullivan and Weaver). There are several major league bench players (semi-regulars). As well as a number who simply had a cup of joe in the show. So this is about what you can expect.

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  3. #2
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Aurilia Draft Choice Expectations....

    Are you sure we'll get compensation? I thought the new bargaining agreement cut out FA compensation. I hope you're right

  4. #3
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: Aurilia Draft Choice Expectations....

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Are you sure we'll get compensation? I thought the new bargaining agreement cut out FA compensation. I hope you're right
    It cut down compensation, but did not eliminate it.
    Not all who wander are lost

  5. #4
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Aurilia Draft Choice Expectations....

    Not a fair assessment, b/c you have to look around at the players available in that range and not taken in that exact spot.

  6. #5
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    Re: Aurilia Draft Choice Expectations....

    Not a fair assessment, b/c you have to look around at the players available in that range and not taken in that exact spot.
    I dunno. Texasdave threw out 14 years' worth -- I think it gives a pretty fair look at what to expect ("small chance of getting a solid major leaguer"). Though you're correct to suggest that ranges around 36 and 62 would offer added insight.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  7. #6
    We are the angry mob cincyinco's Avatar
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    Re: Aurilia Draft Choice Expectations....

    Well, the good news is this is supposed to be one of the stronger drafts in recent memory - the talent pool is deep. So hopefully we can land a quality prospect.
    "I hate to advocate chemicals, alcohol, violence or insanity to anyone... But they've always worked for me."

    -Hunter S. Thompson

  8. #7
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: Aurilia Draft Choice Expectations....

    Quote Originally Posted by texasdave View Post
    Since the Reds are probably going to receive the 36th and 62nd draft choices as a result of the Giants' signing of Rich Aurilia I looked up just what those draft choice positions normally yield. Here are the 36th and 62nd draft choices for the years 1986 to 1999. I stopped at 1999 because I figured anyone drafted from 2000 on really hasn't had a legitimate chance at establishing themselves at the major league level.

    1986
    36 - Erik Hanson - solid ML starter 1 all-star appearance.
    62 - Rod Robertson - never made it out of minors.

    1987
    36 - Nathan Minchey - never made it out of minors.
    62 - Alex Arias - major league sub.

    1988
    36 - Tim Morrow - never made it out of minors.
    62 - Billy Ashley - major league sub.

    1989
    36 - Mike Milchin - major league sub.
    62 - Kevin Castleberry - never made it out of minors.

    1990
    36 - Kirk Dressendorfer - major league sub. 62 - Chris Weinke - never made it out of minors. *won heismann trophy

    1991
    36 - Bobby Jones - solid major league starter.
    62 - Terrell Lowery - major league sub.

    1992
    36 - Michael Moore - never made it out of minors.
    62- A.J. Hinch - major league sub.

    1993
    36 - Willie Adams - major league sub.
    62 - Scott Sullivan - solid major league reliever.

    1994
    36 - Brad Rigby - major league sub.
    62 - John Crowther - never made it out of minors.

    1995
    36 - Nate Rolison - major league sub.
    62 - Greg Wooten - never made it out of minors.

    1996
    36 - Andy Prater - never made it out of minors.
    62 - Eric Munson - major league sub.

    1997
    36 - Ntema Ndungidi - never made it out of minors.
    62 - Jeff Weaver - solid major league starter.

    1998
    36 - Raphael Freeman - never made it out of minors.
    62 - Jeff Goldbach - never made it out of minors.

    1999
    36 - Nick Stocks - never made it out of minors.
    62 - John Thomas - never made it out of minors.

    As you can see there is a small chance that you can get a solid major leaguer with these choices (Hanson, Jones, Sullivan and Weaver). There are several major league bench players (semi-regulars). As well as a number who simply had a cup of joe in the show. So this is about what you can expect.

    Doesn't look promising

  9. #8
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    Re: Aurilia Draft Choice Expectations....

    I agree it isn't really a great assessment since there are so many variables. It just depends on how good a team's scouts are and the luck involved with the draft. If you were to look at any 2 positions on the draft board there will be a combination of great players and duds. It just depends on how good the Reds scouts are. If we were to look at a range of players taken right after those picks I'm sure you could find several All-Stars. If the Reds scouts have the ability to pick out a stud then the picks will obviously look better than if we take a complete dud. Also, if the player gets injured or whatever that can affect it. The draft tends to be too much of a crapshoot than to be able to say having a certain number pick is a good or bad thing or what the expectation should be.


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