“And when finally they sense that some position cannot be sustained, they do not re-examine their ideas. Instead, they simply change the subject.” Jamie Galbraith
Bray is the highest ceiling arm we have in our bullpen. You think that's worth the .5 ERA upgrade from Lohse to Lieber for a year? Wow... Didn't you just talk in the other thread about using roster spots on high ceiling youth rather than high paid mediocrity? And now you want to move some cheap high ceiling youth for mediocrity --- and want nothing to do with another high ceiling (if certifiably insane) arm as well?
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
whats wrong with Lieber & Lohse?
if the Phils want to salary dump Lieber then i am all for it. I've said before i think Lohse will have a big year due to his being a free agent at the end of 2007. if Lieber was hurt last year and only has 1 year left on his contract then all we have to lose is money ( assuming that we send the Phils some low level 'prospects' ). since free agency this year is nuts then spending the money on 1 year of Lieber seems reasonable.
Arroyo, Harang, Lohse, Lieber & Milton/Bailey seems servicable for 2007.
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I don't know for sure. This might be part of the "sign Adam Eaton and Dump Lieber to pay for it" plan. I think moving his salary is the primary motivation. You're probably right about the Geezers, but he might take Majewski and filler (Olmedo, Harris, etc) just to fill a hole and move the $.
I agree I wouldn't deal either of them for Leiber mostly because I believe they would take less based on these tidbits from Philly's MLB.com site.Originally posted by OnBaseMachine
Good Lord, Bray and Cueto for a pitcher who hasn't posted an ERA below 4.30 since 2002? That would be an awful deal. Listen, I like Jon Lieber and would like to see the Reds acquire him, but not for a stud like Johnny Cueto.
They'll fill their bullpen needs eventually by way of dealing righty Jon Lieber. The veteran appears to be the odd-man out in the six-man rotation and will likely be dealt to address it.I would Offer some combination of Cormier, Shack, Dumatrait and perhaps Belisle. As Belisle becomes less necc. if you get Leiber and perhaps makes more sense to Philly in case they need a cheap starting option at some point.As for Lieber, Arbuckle said the team has already been contacted by several suitors. The Rangers, Pirates and Brewers are teams that might have interest. Texas is believed to be dangling some combination of Scott Feldman, Ron Mahay and Joaquin Benoit.
"We're at a point now where teams are saying, 'If you're going to make a move, we have interest in a starter,'" Arbuckle said. "This market is going to continue to play out in favor of anybody who has an extra arm. In the next few days, once these last few free agents settle in, I think there will be a fair number of clubs who need starting pitching. I think supply and demand will work in our favor."
What are the chances of opening Spring Training with six starters?
"I think the odds are small," Arbuckle said. "I think we report to Clearwater hopefully with a better bullpen."
What are the chances you'll have six starters by Christmas?
"Probably not great," Arbuckle said. "If we were to send out Christmas presents, we probably would only need to send five to starting pitchers. I don't know about this week, but probably sometime over the next 10 days to two weeks [a move will be made]."
"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."
--Woody Hayes
As I said. Improving the rotation is paramount to me; everything else takes a backseat. I happen to think the upgrade from Lohse will be MUCH greater than a half a run. I expect Lieber to be a full run better than Lohse next year. At minimum.
I don't think Bray has a high ceiling at all; he doesn't throw nearly as hard as advertised and he's easy to hit hard. Coffey's ceiling is much higher, IMO. Lohse and Bray are object lessons in fungible talent.
And for all those screaming at me about who or what I'd offer for Lieber--I'm only presenting how far I'd go with what I'd surrender; of course, in negotiations, I'd start much lower (Shearn, Maj), but then work up to better if need be.
“And when finally they sense that some position cannot be sustained, they do not re-examine their ideas. Instead, they simply change the subject.” Jamie Galbraith
So ~20 runs fewer allowed over the course of a single season is worth giving up the next 4-5 years of an effective, sub-market value, lefty reliever who some people think is closer material?
Based on the current roster, we're about a swing of 120 runs (combination of runs scored and fewer allowed) from an expected W-L that puts us in playoff position. Who fills that bullpen spot that Bray is filling? As I've said elsewhere, insufficient short-term incremental improvements at the expense of the future is a good way to end up as the Pirates or Royals.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Definitely send Cueto for Lieber. Would most definitely take more than Cueto, so send Cormier back to the Phils as well. If this still isn't enough, add Bergolla to the mix, or another prospect of that caliber.
Cueto isn't anything special, and if the Phils like him, they can have him.
I'd almost suggest Wood for Lieber straight up, but I think Wood is best used in a deal to go get Jason Jennings.
What are you basing your opinion on Cueto off of? I would love to know. Please inform us of your super scout skills. It can't be his stuff considering he throws a 95 mph fastball, plus two other above average pitches, and it most certainly isn't his stats - 138 IP, 100 hits, 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 38 bb/143 k's. Johnny Cueto is a fantastic pitching prospect, like it or not.
Lieber is good and he destroys the reds
Bill Bray has never in his career been able to keep the ball in the park. Turn over a rock, and you'll find a Bill Bray in every team's farm system--they're legion. My guess is that a guy like Shearn could match Bray's numbers, and considering the multitude of lefties already in the bullpen, it might not be such a bad idea to replace Bray with Shearn.
“And when finally they sense that some position cannot be sustained, they do not re-examine their ideas. Instead, they simply change the subject.” Jamie Galbraith
Bray just finished his 2nd season in professional baseball. He allowed 5 HR is 50.2 Major League innings -- .89 HR/9. Is that great? Nope, but it's hardly "never been able to keep the ball in the park". He struck out 11.5/9 in the minors.
I'd love to see Salmon get a chance too. You're right, Bill Bray is not unique. he is not Mariano Rivera. But guess what? There's some gray between singular talent and disposable. I guess 24 year old, better than league average relievers who you control for the next 4 years grow on trees. If they're really that common, then why the heck don't we have a bullpen full of 'em?
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
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