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Thread: Would burning it down work?

  1. #1
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Would burning it down work?

    It's been commented on and talked about in other treads. Might as well hash it out in one convienent spot.

    Do you thinking burning it down would work? That is, trading off all of our big names for prospects in hopes of rebuilding the farm system and hopefully being ready to compete in a few years when Bailey, Bruce and Votto are in place and have some experience.

    I don't think it would in our case for a number of reasons

    * It bets that all of our current assets will return a crop of "almost ready" prospects. What usually happens is some portion of those "almost ready" prospects turn into "never will be ready" prospects. So now you've basically given away your asset for no return (it was bad for "the trade" but and ok risk to take now?) I'd rather build on what we have now instead of giving it away in hopes of something better down the road. Something about a bird in hand...

    * It bets that Bailey, Bruce and Votto will be able to deliver. They likely will be the real deal, but it's a gamble none the less.

    * This isn't south Flordia where you expect this behavior. I think people will read this as yet another "rebuilding" plan and continue to stay away. Without a massive PR campaign I doubt fans would "get excited about seeing a young team come together" a few years from now. They want to see a winning team, and win for more than a few months at a time. That means you don't see real attendence gains (and increased revenues) till some time past when the team is slated to "really compete". So get ready for crappy baseball to continue for yet another 5 year plan.

    * After talking so much about winning now, it might paint BCast into a bad PR corner if he suddenly gives up on competing so early into his ownership. This is a minor effect, but one none the less.

    Just my take. Your thoughts?
    Last edited by Ltlabner; 12-11-2006 at 05:54 PM.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

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  3. #2
    Your killin' me Smalls! StillFunkyB's Avatar
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    Re: Would burning it down work?

    IMO it would work if the FO told the fan base what they planned on doing, truthfully.

    AND...

    If BCast was willing to lose money for a couple of season.

    I have a feeling neither of those will happen.
    "And the fact that watching him pitch is like having someone poop on your soul." FCB on Gary Majewski

  4. #3
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Would burning it down work?

    It worked for the Marlins because they had Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis already there as a core. I'm not sure EE and Harang or Arroyo would quite match that, but I'd run with it. Frankly, if we don't make any bigs moves, we need to make a LOT of marginal gains in the small ones and I'm not seeing it so far.

    That said, I think that model is smart and it works IF you make the right moves. The key to it, in my opinion, is that once your young core is ready, you supplement it with a few big FA signings. Because you aren't wasting cash on mediocre supporting cast (it's all youth), you can afford a 12-15MM starter or huge bat. Otherwise, you just end up with a decent, but very cheap team. In order to win with this model, you have to do it from both ends.

    As for the fans side of it, I think fans respond to action. Will they come out to support a 60 win team? Probably not. However, I think more fans will support a 65-70 win team with a clear and well executed plan to advance to higher win totals than they will a 75-80 win team bumbling around aimlessly hoping for a miracle.

    The other trick is either getting not just potential but volume. If you get only 2 guys with a 50% chance of being as good as the guy you're trading, you have a 25% to "win" the deal, a 50% chance to break even, and a 25% to lose out big time. Don't make deals with a 75% chance of not helping your club. When you go the volume route, your odds increase, so long as you still take quality prospects.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 12-11-2006 at 06:23 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Would burning it down work?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    It worked for the Marlins because they had Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis already there as a core. I'm not sure EE and Harang or Arroyo would quite match that, but I'd run with it.
    I thing buring it down means that Arroyo and Harang will be part of the fire sale.

  6. #5
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Would burning it down work?

    Well, my implied point is that you can't burn it down and get rid of absolutely everything... or at least you shouldn't.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  7. #6
    Tired of talk. Win! Joseph's Avatar
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    Re: Would burning it down work?

    If you could trade Dunn for 3 players; a ML ready arm, a ML ready OF bat, and a prospect....

    If you could trade Griffey for salary relief and or a prospect....

    If you could trade Arroyo for a ML ready arm and a prospect....

    If you can trade Milton for a solid prospect....

    If you could trade Ross for a prospect or solid bullpen arm...

    I wouldn't trade Harang, I'd sign him to a 3 or 4 or even 5 year deal.

    Now granted my propositions would trade all our 'star' power, but if those ML ready players perform half way, then WK will have saved money and reset the future of the franchise.

    So burning it down isn't as needed as simply managing what we have already. All the rest of the players not listed are either young enough not to need to dump, or irrelevant enough not to matter.

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  8. #7
    Senor Votto Degenerate39's Avatar
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    Re: Would burning it down work?

    I'd rather try to win right now. I've never witnessed a Reds world series win since I was born in '90 so the sooner we get there the better.
    Most Vottomatic Player

  9. #8
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Would burning it down work?

    Quote Originally Posted by degenerate10 View Post
    I'd rather try to win right now. I've never witnessed a Reds world series win since I was born in '90 so the sooner we get there the better.
    Burning it down may actually be the faster path
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Would burning it down work?

    Quote Originally Posted by StillFunkyB View Post
    IMO it would work if the FO told the fan base what they planned on doing, truthfully.

    AND...

    If BCast was willing to lose money for a couple of season.

    I have a feeling neither of those will happen.
    Castellini has already said that he wants to 'break even'. In other words, he's continueing in Carl Lindner's path regarding that part of the equation.

    Rem

  11. #10
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Would burning it down work?



    This team will not spend the money to do it the NY way...so there are no other options. I'll help pour the gasoline.

  12. #11
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    Re: Would burning it down work?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Burning it down may actually be the faster path
    Only if it's done with pinpoint accuracy and zero missteps. I think people get drunk on the notion of a Marlins-esque turnaround, but fail to realize the stunning combination of luck (Willis) and brilliant front office execution that was behind it. I don't see that kind of minor league infrastructure or baseball wiliness in this FO. I see a much more straightforward approach here, conducive to patching holes and stumbling across gems through trade; I call it the Jim Bowden approach. And for a while it can work.

    Now, change the culture of the FO, and it might be different. But as long as I've been a Reds' fan, this organization just hasn't been the kind to "tear it down" and start over.

  13. #12
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    Re: Would burning it down work?

    Quote Originally Posted by StillFunkyB View Post
    IMO it would work if the FO told the fan base what they planned on doing, truthfully.

    AND...

    If BCast was willing to lose money for a couple of season.

    I have a feeling neither of those will happen.
    There needs to be a third part added to the equation: the Front Office needs to be able to judge talent correctly. Are you comfortable that they are? At this point, I can't say I am. They need to show me more in that area.

    Rem

  14. #13
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Would burning it down work?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Only if it's done with pinpoint accuracy and zero missteps. I think people get drunk on the notion of a Marlins-esque turnaround, but fail to realize the stunning combination of luck (Willis) and brilliant front office execution that was behind it. I don't see that kind of minor league infrastructure or baseball wiliness in this FO. I see a much more straightforward approach here, conducive to patching holes and stumbling across gems through trade; I call it the Jim Bowden approach. And for a while it can work.

    Now, change the culture of the FO, and it might be different. But as long as I've been a Reds' fan, this organization just hasn't been the kind to "tear it down" and start over.
    They had a fire sale last off-season. Willis had a 4.31 ERA. I think pitchers like Olsen and Johnson had more to do with their turnaround than Willis did.

  15. #14
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Would burning it down work?

    Quote Originally Posted by remdog View Post
    There needs to be a third part added to the equation: the Front Office needs to be able to judge talent correctly. Are you comfortable that they are? At this point, I can't say I am. They need to show me more in that area.

    Rem
    We're screwed either way then.

  16. #15
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Would burning it down work?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    They had a fire sale last off-season. Willis had a 4.31 ERA. I think pitchers like Olsen and Johnson had more to do with their turnaround than Willis did.
    Not to mention the amazing performances they got out of Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla. I didn't say it would be quick FCB, but I think this current approach has about a 0% chance of taking us to a WS.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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