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Thread: What About These Remaining Free Agents?

  1. #16
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: What About These Remaining Free Agents?

    Quote Originally Posted by vaticanplum View Post
    200+ innings for six years straight. Only one of those years accumulating more than a 4.00 ERA -- and that being three seasons ago. Only twice allowing more than 200 hits on those 200+ innings. A fairly steady WHIP. I think that Barry zito has made a case for himself, above all else, for consistency at this point. And it is this above all else that endears him so much to me. And the fact that he works his tail off is just more icing for me. If he proves to be overrated, then I think some team will get a handful of absolutely stellar seasons out of him for a decent price, and in this world, what more can any team really hope for out of a pitcher?

    He's going to have to have a genuinely scary season to convince me that he is in any way declining at this point. He hasn't gotten near close so far. To compare Zito to Lohse, even as a stopgap, is not only absurd to me, but indicative of absolutely what is fundamentally wrong with this team.


    ERA, WHIP, intangibles.....blech....

    Those are all flawed metrics for evaluating a pitcher and none of them look forward.... and all of them can hide the decline suggested by his peripherals while failing to account for him pitching in a pitcher's paradise at home (and in basically his whole division Arlington excluded).

    We're talking about making a 6-7 year commitment at probably $15M per...

    Pecota hasn't been updated yet for '07 but their pitching projections generally have been the best around (certainly though Pecota isn't the end all but it's as good as anything for the discussion). I suspect the '07 projections will be less optimistic but using the '06 projections, Zito is predicted to only be a 3 win pitcher as early as the second year of his next contract (that would nonetheless be paying him like he was a premier TOR arm). Playing devil's advocate and assuming Pecota is destiny for a moment, deciding to accept the likelihood that you'd be overpaying for production as early as year 2 of a 7 year deal ($5M/win) hardly seems like good risk management. The Reds have adopted a small market payroll philosophy (whether we agree its appropriate or not doesn't matter-they've decided there is only so much jack to go around). Effective risk management is absolutely essential when formulating rosters if they hope to be competitive given what they're willing to spend.

    Quote Originally Posted by vaticanplum View Post
    To compare Zito to Lohse, even as a stopgap, is not only absurd to me, but indicative of absolutely what is fundamentally wrong with this team.
    Actually, I'd argue that having roughly 30% of payroll tied up in contracts for two guys who essentially are giving you replacement level production (Griffey, Milton) is what is fundamentally wrong with this team. IMHO, there is a compelling argument that Zito could end up being a similar situation. At least there certainly is cause for pause....

    Anyway, these are the kinds of fun arguments that make the hotstove so inviting...


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  3. #17
    Mon chou Choo vaticanplum's Avatar
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    Re: What About These Remaining Free Agents?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I suspect the '07 projections will be less optimistic but using the '06 projections, Zito is predicted to only be a 3 win pitcher as early as the second year of his next contract (that would nonetheless be paying him like he was a premier TOR arm). Playing devil's advocate and assuming Pecota is destiny for a moment, deciding to accept the likelihood that you'd be overpaying for production as early as year 2 of a 7 year deal ($5M/win) hardly seems like good risk management. The Reds have adopted a small market payroll philosophy (whether we agree its appropriate or not doesn't matter-they've decided there is only so much jack to go around). Effective risk management is absolutely essential when formulating rosters if they hope to be competitive given what they're willing to spend.
    Your arguments are not without merit, but I cannot toast to that.

    Spending money once in a while, on something that deserves it, could serve the Reds fairly well. That's not overpayment. That's reality. I understand what you mean regarding the best possible value out of your dollar, but EVERY team is doing that, even the Yankees. It's not a special secret philosophy. Every team is trying to save money, and every team has to pay out once in a while. Seriously, to compare Milton to Zito? THAT is what is wrong with things. Spending money is not inherently all wrong; discerning where it is worth it is what seems to be the problem with this team.
    Last edited by vaticanplum; 12-15-2006 at 11:09 PM.
    There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.

  4. #18
    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Re: What About These Remaining Free Agents?

    Quote Originally Posted by vaticanplum View Post
    already-great pitchers
    you had me until you said that. I don't know if I could call him great. He's has been good, but not great. Roger Clemens is great, Barry Zito, well not so much.

    Quote Originally Posted by vaticanplum
    discerning where it is worth it is what seems to be the problem with this team.
    Zito is not worth 100 million or more to the Reds.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  5. #19
    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Re: What About These Remaining Free Agents?

    I would also like to say that if the Reds could magically sign Zito, I wouldn't complain because I would love it, but I don't think it would be smart.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  6. #20
    Reds fan trapped in CHI Jim's Avatar
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    Re: What About These Remaining Free Agents?

    Last I heard in White Sox news, Hermanson is done with baseball.

  7. #21
    Member schroomytunes's Avatar
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    Re: What About These Remaining Free Agents?

    I think this team has to sign Craig Wilson, for 2 reasons. 1. We need a righty to platoon with Hatteberg at 1st base with some pop. 2. We need to have someone to spell Griffey in Rf and still have some resemblence of an offense. I think our pitching will be ok in 07, but our offense has some questions to be answered. If Wilson comes aboard it will definitly be a boost to the bench/offense. And by no means will it hogtie the purse strings.

  8. #22
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    Re: What About These Remaining Free Agents?

    Quote Originally Posted by schroomytunes View Post
    I think this team has to sign Craig Wilson, for 2 reasons. 1. We need a righty to platoon with Hatteberg at 1st base with some pop. 2. We need to have someone to spell Griffey in Rf and still have some resemblence of an offense. I think our pitching will be ok in 07, but our offense has some questions to be answered. If Wilson comes aboard it will definitly be a boost to the bench/offense. And by no means will it hogtie the purse strings.

    I agree. With Griffey's numerous injuries and platooning with Hatteberg at lst, Wilson could get 400 + at bats. I also would sign Riske and try to move Majewski to Philadelphia for RHP Jon Leiber.
    If you think small, you'll go nowhere in life.

  9. #23
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    Re: What About These Remaining Free Agents?

    I would go for the Majewski to Phillies for Lieber but I would sign Armas Jr. instead of Riskie

  10. #24
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    Re: What About These Remaining Free Agents?

    If we traded Dunn, I'd sign Preston Wilson... and i've always loved David Riske, so I'd love him on the team... btw, we already have Stanton and Bray, we don't need another lefty

  11. #25
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    Re: What About These Remaining Free Agents?

    I'm nervous about giving any right handed bat that can play 3rd a contract bc i can see him getting hot and we have Narron benching EE

  12. #26
    Kmac5 KoryMac5's Avatar
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    Re: What About These Remaining Free Agents?

    If Meche is worth 11 million per than Zito is worth the 15 million per year. The market is dictating what Zito is worth. He already has an offer in that range from Texas but he is holding out for the Mets.

  13. #27
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    Re: What About These Remaining Free Agents?

    Quote Originally Posted by KoryMac5 View Post
    If Meche is worth 11 million per than Zito is worth the 15 million per year. The market is dictating what Zito is worth. He already has an offer in that range from Texas but he is holding out for the Mets.
    Which makes it very important the Reds lock Harang to a four year deal this offseason.
    If you think small, you'll go nowhere in life.

  14. #28
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    Re: What About These Remaining Free Agents?

    Quote Originally Posted by Krusty View Post
    Which makes it very important the Reds lock Harang to a four year deal this offseason.
    That is what I am waiting to see with interest, how they handle Harang and Arroyo when it comes to contracts. I know they still have some window, but it will be interesting to see how they approach them.

  15. #29
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    Re: What About These Remaining Free Agents?

    Quote Originally Posted by SpringfieldFan View Post
    That is what I am waiting to see with interest, how they handle Harang and Arroyo when it comes to contracts. I know they still have some window, but it will be interesting to see how they approach them.
    I highly doubt Arroyo will want to sign before he becomes a free agent unless the Reds throw a huge extended contract at him. That is something that never seems to happen in Cincinnati and in this case, that's probably good.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  16. #30
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: What About These Remaining Free Agents?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jpup View Post
    I highly doubt Arroyo will want to sign before he becomes a free agent unless the Reds throw a huge extended contract at him. That is something that never seems to happen in Cincinnati and in this case, that's probably good.

    They better be on target with their limited starting pitching as difficult as it is for the Reds to ever find any or Reds fans will be talking “next year” for many years to come, come to think of it they have already been doing that for many years.


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