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Thread: Reds move up on BA's organization report cards

  1. #16
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Reds move up on BA's organization report cards

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    I'd suggest that having many of the top propsects having good seasons is an absolute turnaround. As opposed to having many of the top prospects flop. It validates the top prospects ratings.
    My definition of absolute turnaround is having a farm system that consistently spits out quality major leaguers. Most likely, none of the Reds top prospects will be a quality major leaguer in 2007.

    They've got three top arms (Bailey, Cueto, Wood) and two top bat (Bruce and Votto). Say two of the arms get injured in 2007 and the two bats struggle a bit the next league up. Would that then be an absolute negative turnaround?

    That's why I try to resist the notion that everything's suddenly horrible/wonderful. The Reds have increased the top end value in their farm system over the past year. That's a good thing. It needs to continue. The rest of the system needs to delevop much better depth and prospects at some point will need to make the jump to being capable major leaguers (and that might be two to three years off).

    The Reds's affiliates generally struggled on the field, Chattanooga and Billings were the only two to post winning records for the year. The system certainly didn't feature prospect-laden teams. We've seen handful of prospects have a good year before, 2001 leaps to mind. IMO it would far more encouraging and indicative of a turnaround if 2007 builds on 2006. Right now we've got one year that stands in isolation waiting, hopefully, on an exciting future.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  3. #17
    Red's fan mbgrayson's Avatar
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    Re: Reds move up on BA's organization report cards

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    "The Reds's affiliates generally struggled on the field, Chattanooga and Billings were the only two to post winning records for the year. The system certainly didn't feature prospect-laden teams. We've seen handful of prospects have a good year before, 2001 leaps to mind. IMO it would far more encouraging and indicative of a turnaround if 2007 builds on 2006. Right now we've got one year that stands in isolation waiting, hopefully, on an exciting future.
    This is simply not true. Here are the 2005 minor league records compared to 2006:

    2006 v 2005 Reds minor league system comparison
    In the past, one of the big hits on the Reds farm system was that their farm teams were losing more than winning, at many different levels. One way to compare overall strength of systems is to look at win-loss records of the various teams.

    2006 records
    AAA Louisville 75-68 (+9 wins)
    AA Chattanooga 81-59 (+28 wins)
    High A Sarasota 66-73 (+1 win)
    A Dayton 67-73 (+7 wins)
    Rookie Billings 51-25 (+8 wins)
    GCL Reds 18-34 (-4 wins)
    2006 Overall 358-332 (+49 wins) (.519 winning %)

    2005 records

    AAA Louisville 66-78
    AA Chattanooga 53-83
    High A Sarasota 65-67
    A Dayton 60-79
    Rookie Billings 43-33
    GCL Reds 22-32
    2005 Overall totals 309-372 (.454 winning %)

    Overall, winning 49 more games, and having winning records at 3 of 6 levels, including AA and AAA, is a real improvement. Also it is worth noting that 5 of the 6 teams had better records than 2005.
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  4. #18
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Reds move up on BA's organization report cards

    Exactly one thing changed under DanO. Health. It's that simple.

    Had Bowden's drafts been healthy, who knows where the Reds would be right now. Swimming in a pitching rich system I think. Just the top names of the last 5-6 years include Pauly, Gardner, Howington, Gruler, Basham and Aramboles. Add them to the current crop of HEALTHY minor leaguers and what you have is a solid foundation to feed MLB. Not just the Reds, but all of baseball as potential trade chips.

    DanO, if nothing else brought health to the minor leaguers. Now that may have been serendipitous, or a result of his very conservative nature, regardless, the minors were healthy under his watch for the first time in a long time.

    Krivsky SAYS that he doesn't want players skipping levels, and yet both Cueto and Bailey spent only a half season at the level they started at in '06.

    Cueto went from pitching 50 innings in 2005 to 140 in 2006. That's quite a jump.

    LeCure skipped the Midwest League altogether. Now while I think he's the type of pitcher, age and development, that could handle the jump, it goes to pattern. Krivsk says no skipping, then he starts having players skip levels or spend only a short time there. And don't get me started on Pelland. Kid has been handled completely wrong his entire career thus far. He should have spent 2006 repeating High A.

    Now this approach isn't nearly as aggressive as one Bowden might employ. (remember when Aramboles nearly made the team out of ST?) But it is aggressive nonetheless. And I'm not saying it's a bad idea. just pointing out what I have observed. I do not think Krivsky will be remembered for the 2006 draft. But then it was supposed to be a weak class. But 2007 is supposed to be better. And he needs to do something on the international front. So far, he's shown nothing on that front.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  5. #19
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Reds move up on BA's organization report cards

    Quote Originally Posted by mbgrayson View Post
    This is simply not true. Here are the 2005 minor league records compared to 2006:

    2006 v 2005 Reds minor league system comparison
    In the past, one of the big hits on the Reds farm system was that their farm teams were losing more than winning, at many different levels. One way to compare overall strength of systems is to look at win-loss records of the various teams.

    2006 records
    AAA Louisville 75-68 (+9 wins)
    AA Chattanooga 81-59 (+28 wins)
    High A Sarasota 66-73 (+1 win)
    A Dayton 67-73 (+7 wins)
    Rookie Billings 51-25 (+8 wins)
    GCL Reds 18-34 (-4 wins)
    2006 Overall 358-332 (+49 wins) (.519 winning &#37

    2005 records

    AAA Louisville 66-78
    AA Chattanooga 53-83
    High A Sarasota 65-67
    A Dayton 60-79
    Rookie Billings 43-33
    GCL Reds 22-32
    2005 Overall totals 309-372 (.454 winning %)

    Overall, winning 49 more games, and having winning records at 3 of 6 levels, including AA and AAA, is a real improvement. Also it is worth noting that 5 of the 6 teams had better records than 2005.
    My bad on forgetting that Louisville had a winning record. So that's still losing teams in High A, Low A and the GCL (half the affiliates). Mixed bag would have been a fairer statement. We're still not talking prospect-laden teams here.

    I agree that progress was made, but it's far from where the organization needs to go.
    Last edited by M2; 12-18-2006 at 04:25 PM.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  6. #20
    Member VR's Avatar
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    Re: Reds move up on BA's organization report cards

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    My bad on forgetting that Louisville had a winning record. So that's still losing teams in High A, Low A and the GCL (half the affiliates). Mixed bag would have been a fairer statement. We're still not talking prospect-laden teams here.

    I agree that progress was made, but it's far from where the organization needs to go.

    I think that's a fair assessment. Perhaps it's more reasonable for the original statement to say they've managed to put a tourniquet around the hemoraghing torso, and it seems to have stopped the bleeding....only time will tell if it's going to heal itself however
    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

  7. #21
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds move up on BA's organization report cards

    I could care less if our system has teams that win. I want the system to produce players.

  8. #22
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Reds move up on BA's organization report cards

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I could care less if our system has teams that win. I want the system to produce players.
    Ultimately yes, though the ideal would be producing players who've been brought up through a winning atmosphere.

    The two cases that resonate most with me for caring about minor league team records (which shouldn't necessarily matter) are that it generally means you're doing well on the talent end (at least in terms of depth) and that your prospects are being brought along in a strong team concept system. I think it's important to make kids concentrate as much on winning games as they do on advancing their individual skills.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  9. #23
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds move up on BA's organization report cards

    I will agree with that M2, but I think, especially in younger guys, that they just want to win. Older Vets sometimes just want that big payday regardless of whether its in KC or not, but I think especially with younger guys they want to win.

  10. #24
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    Re: Reds move up on BA's organization report cards

    I'm not saying anyone is trying to judge Wayne's first draft, but let's not even think about going there. I remember a lot of people upset at the Homer pick, and the Bruce pick. It is way to early to tell if any of these guys are going to pan out or even stay healthly.

  11. #25
    Red's fan mbgrayson's Avatar
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    Re: Reds move up on BA's organization report cards

    For anyone who has access to Baseball America's premium content, the organization report ccards are now online HERE. (Subscription required.)
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