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  1. #1
    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Would You Make This Trade?

    Braves Get:

    Homer Bailey
    Rheal Cormier
    Todd Coffey

    Reds Get:

    Tim Hudson
    Jarrod Saltalamacchia
    Adam LaRoche

    Would you do it and do you think the Braves would?
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  2. #2
    Member pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Would You Make This Trade?

    No, Hudson makes too much money.
    School's out. What did you expect?

  3. #3
    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Re: Would You Make This Trade?

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    No, Hudson makes too much money.
    I think the Reds have it to pay.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  4. #4
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    Re: Would You Make This Trade?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jpup View Post
    I think the Reds have it to pay.
    IIRC, Hudson is scheduled to make 32 million over the next 2 years. I just don't think he'll produce at a level that would make that good investment.
    School's out. What did you expect?

  5. #5
    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Re: Would You Make This Trade?

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    IIRC, Hudson is scheduled to make 32 million over the next 2 years. I just don't think he'll produce at a level that would make that good investment.
    maybe you could get the Braves to pick up some of the contract even if it took throwing in another "prospect."
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  6. #6
    Maple SERP savafan's Avatar
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    Re: Would You Make This Trade?

    Hudson's projected numbers at GABP:

    Code:
     Year Ag   G   W   L   WL%     IP    H    R   ER  HR   BB  SO  HBP   ERA   WHIP  ActG
    +-------+----+---+---+-----+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+-----+------+----+
     1999 23   21  10   5  .667  136.3  121   52   49   8   62  132   4  3.23  1.342   21
     2000 24   32  13   9  .591  203.7  170  100   94  24   82  170   7  4.15  1.237   32
     2001 25   35  16   9  .640  231.0  225  101   95  21   74  177   6  3.70  1.294   35
     2002 26   34  18   8  .692  237.3  239   86   81  19   63  151   8  3.07  1.272   34
     2003 27   34  18   8  .692  235.0  208   85   80  16   64  158  11  3.06  1.157   34
     2004 28   27  13   7  .650  188.7  194   79   74   8   44  103  12  3.53  1.261   27
     2005 29   29  12   8  .600  187.7  204   88   83  21   68  112   9  3.98  1.449   29
     2006 30   35  10  13  .435  213.3  246  137  129  26   83  137   9  5.44  1.542   35
    +-------+----+---+---+-----+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+-----+------+----+
     Totals   247 110  67  .621 1633.0 1607  728  685 143  540 1143  66  3.78  1.315  247
    I'd rather have Milton.
    My dad got to enjoy 3 Reds World Championships by the time he was my age. So far, I've only gotten to enjoy one. Step it up Redlegs!

  7. #7
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Would You Make This Trade?

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    IIRC, Hudson is scheduled to make 32 million over the next 2 years. I just don't think he'll produce at a level that would make that good investment.
    I know it was just a typo but actually Hudson is scheduled to make $19M over the next two years. Your point is still valid....the Reds would be on the hook for alot of money over his total contract:

    Hudson:
    07:$6M,
    08:$13M,
    09:$13M,
    10:$12M mutual option

    To me the issues with him are completely related to injury risk and payroll. If he's healthy and back to normal, he is projected by Pecota (they're pretty good with pitchers) to be a solid guy through his contract years. He's not the dominant guy of his early years in Oakland but he is still an extreme groundball pitcher with very solid stuff that should translate well in GABP IMHO.... Its all money and risk though...

  8. #8
    Member pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Would You Make This Trade?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I know it was just a typo but actually Hudson is scheduled to make $19M over the next two years. Your point is still valid....the Reds would be on the hook for alot of money over his total contract:

    Hudson:
    07:$6M,
    08:$13M,
    09:$13M,
    10:$12M mutual option

    To me the issues with him are completely related to injury risk and payroll. If he's healthy and back to normal, he is projected by Pecota (they're pretty good with pitchers) to be a solid guy through his contract years. He's not the dominant guy of his early years in Oakland but he is still an extreme groundball pitcher with very solid stuff that should translate well in GABP IMHO.... Its all money and risk though...
    ok, so it's not as bad as I thought. I'd sure like to have him next year for 6 million, but those last two years are killers.
    School's out. What did you expect?

  9. #9
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    Re: Would You Make This Trade?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jpup View Post
    Braves Get:

    Homer Bailey
    Rheal Cormier
    Todd Coffey

    Reds Get:

    Tim Hudson
    Jarrod Saltalamacchia
    Adam LaRoche

    Would you do it and do you think the Braves would?

    Replace Bailey with Cueto or Wood and we have a deal. No offence but they don't get Bailey unless we get cash as well.

  10. #10
    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Re: Would You Make This Trade?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dracodave View Post
    Replace Bailey with Cueto or Wood and we have a deal. No offence but they don't get Bailey unless we get cash as well.
    You have to give up something to get LaRoche in the deal as well.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  11. #11
    Senor Votto
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    Re: Would You Make This Trade?

    Nooooooooooooooooo

  12. #12
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    Re: Would You Make This Trade?

    No way....Hudson makes way too much money for the type of year he had last year. Salty is coming off a down year. LaRoche appears to be worth only a young back end of the bullpen arm on the market.

    If Bailey is going to the braves then James, Salty, and one of those young SS they have in the system is a must. I want no part of Hudson's contract and im not high or LaRoche even if hes got his ADD under control.

    Plus the Braves arent going to be asking the 2005 value of Hudson and Salty and not the 2006.

  13. #13
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    Re: Would You Make This Trade?

    Votto > LaRoche and i dont believe in aquiring a player to turn him around to another team...

    im for trying to find a deal for Sal

  14. #14
    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Re: Would You Make This Trade?

    Quote Originally Posted by The_jbh View Post
    Votto > LaRoche
    What has Votto proven above AA? I think Votto will be a good player, but LaRoche is much better right now. That's not even being fair to Votto.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  15. #15
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Would You Make This Trade?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jpup View Post
    What has Votto proven above AA? I think Votto will be a good player, but LaRoche is much better right now. That's not even being fair to Votto.
    It's not really that important to prove anything above AA ball IMHO..... In some of his classic abstracts, Bill James has argued pretty forcefully that its not necesary to require players log extensive time at the AAA level. In fact he also argues as a basic truism, that the truly great players will reach the majors at a younger age than usual. James' opinions aside, its becoming more and more common for major league teams to promote their top prospects from AA to the big dance without any significant time logged AAA. Basically the AAA level is starting to resemble more of a holding tank for shuttling roster help (replacement level players and second tier prospects basically blocked at the major league level) than a true developmental step (at least for the true prospects)...

    So here's why the proposed trade is a non-starter IMHO. It addresses two needs by trading/blocking in house solutions (Homer/Votto) that are cheaper with more upside than the two options that would come in return. Basically LaRoche projects as a league average first baseman (.282/.358/.483) who is valuable because he's cheap but who is going to get much more expensive during his approaching arb eligible years. Hudson is intriguing but very expensive as his contract is back loaded. He is going to get very expensive beyond next year-without a guarantee he will give you innings (he'll be 32 next season and his contract goes through what should be his decline years). Finally, first base is the easiest position on the field to solve via replacement level guys. Last year essentially supports this notion as the Reds got by pretty well from squeezing blood from the turnips at firstbase last season.... Signing C. Wilson does enough to address the Reds need at first for '07 to satisfy me and it doesn't require giving up anything potentially useful....

    Now, all of that being said, the in-house solutions aren't going to be automatic ones for '07 so I understand the downside. Basically Votto has only become a bona fide prospect because he had a break out season (.319/.408/.547) last year in a traditionally pitcher dominant league. Basically he still has things to prove and probably is not ready to make the jump in '07. Krivsky's statements about Homer needing seasoning in AAA basically is lip service, I think, because there is a lack of consensus within the organisation regarding Homer's command. They are basically hedging their bets. He's probably going to be on the 25 man roster no later than August.

    So IMHO, I'd frame this particular proposal as: "would you rather trade cheap/in-house but win tomorrow for expensive and try to win now?". I'd prefer the in-house for these two particular needs.

    Anyway, thats the world according to me for what its worth....
    Last edited by jojo; 12-17-2006 at 09:07 PM.


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