Merged: Really Disappointed / Krivsky, Ownership not as-advertised?

[Spring~Fields]

On September 29 the Reds were 79-80. They had three games to play and yet were only 2 and 1/2 games behind the Cardinals for the division lead. Say what you want about about the NL Central being weak this year but the St. Louis Cardinals won the World Series and the Reds stayed with them until the very end. That is called being a contender.

• April - 17-8 .680
  May - 12-16 .428
  June - 15-12 .555
  July - 11-14 .444
  August - 12-17 .413
  September - 13-14 .481
  October - 1-0
  162 games 80 - 82 .493

I just don’t see one good month making a team a contender, a team that played every month with the lone exception of the first month at or below
.500 as being a contender.

May - October 137 games 63 - 74 .459

Now they are without Kearns, Lopez and Aurilia on offense and Guardado and Schoeneweis in the pitching dept.

[westofyou]

43 is young. 51. Well, a lot less so, philosophically.

He's from the scouting side of the game, he already knows what cut of beef he likes.

[Handofdeath]

• April - 17-8 .680
  May - 12-16 .428
  June - 15-12 .555
  July - 11-14 .444
  August - 12-17 .413
  September - 13-14 .481
  October - 1-0
  162 games 80 - 82 .493

I just don’t see one good month making a team a contender, a team that played every month with the lone exception of the first month at or below
.500 as being a contender.

May - October 137 games 63 - 74 .459

Now they are without Kearns, Lopez and Aurilia on offense and Guardado and Schoeneweis in the pitching dept.

But let's say that this happened...

April -17-8
May -13-15
June -15-12
July -12-13
August -13-16
September -13-14
October -1-0

Doesn't look that much better does it? Not counting October, 2 months over .500. The rest, not very good at all. Pretty bad actually. Guess what? If that happened your Cincinnati Reds are the 2006 N.L Central Champions.

[Highlifeman21]

I thought Handofdeath had a fairly good analysis of the post-trade Reds. The collapse late in the season overlooks that they had some life immediately post trade.

Handofdeath wrote



Certainly we took a hit, and part of the good play towards the end was Aurilia, but I think we aren't far off from competing in the NL Central. I really don't want to sacrifice the future for one year.

And even Krivsky's propensity towards the Twins model of pitching and defense doesn't mean you can't have one stud in your line-up like Adam Dunn.
Let's see what this squad looks like on Opening Day.

Getting our butts handed to us out on the West Coast Swing told me we weren't contenders with Narron at the helm.

Let me rephrase what I said.

We still have Narron as manager and people think we are contenders?

A better manager would have done something to prevent the outcome of that West Coast Swing.

As long as Narron is our manager, we will never be contenders. Detroit would have missed the playoffs with Narron as their manager this year.

[Highlifeman21]

On September 29 the Reds were 79-80. They had three games to play and yet were only 2 and 1/2 games behind the Cardinals for the division lead. Say what you want about about the NL Central being weak this year but the St. Louis Cardinals won the World Series and the Reds stayed with them until the very end. That is called being a contender.

Finishing the year under .500 and almost winning the division only tells me that we were in a weak division last year.

Say the Reds had won the division. They would have gotten stomped in the playoffs, IMO.

Any team around .500 is not a contender. Winning a division crown is not a contender to me. A contender to me is being favored to get to the World Series, or at least get to your respective League Championship Series.

The Reds under Narron will be lucky to win 80 games in 2007.

[Caveat Emperor]

We still have Narron as manager and people think we are contenders?

A better manager would have done something to prevent the outcome of that West Coast Swing.

As long as Narron is our manager, we will never be contenders. Detroit would have missed the playoffs with Narron as their manager this year.

A better manager would've done what? Coaxed even higher numbers from the already career-years being posted by guys like Hatteberg and Aurillia? Fixed a slumping Adam Dunn? Taught the bullpen guys how to retire hitters?

Narron did a helluva job last year getting the team even close to respectability given the abysmal run differential and overall level of talent on the team.

[Highlifeman21]

A better manager would've done what? Coaxed even higher numbers from the already career-years being posted by guys like Hatteberg and Aurillia? Fixed a slumping Adam Dunn? Taught the bullpen guys how to retire hitters?

Narron did a helluva job last year getting the team even close to respectability given the abysmal run differential and overall level of talent on the team.

I have to respectfully disagree.

This team won in spite of Jerry Narron.

His in game decisions are horrid, and whoever taught him how to fill out a lineup card needs a swift kick in the nuts.

Falling in love with KGJ in the 3 hole and RA in the 4 hole told me all I need to know about Narron.

[redsmetz]

Getting our butts handed to us out on the West Coast Swing told me we weren't contenders with Narron at the helm.

Let me rephrase what I said.

We still have Narron as manager and people think we are contenders?

A better manager would have done something to prevent the outcome of that West Coast Swing.

As long as Narron is our manager, we will never be contenders. Detroit would have missed the playoffs with Narron as their manager this year.

Ah, yes. The "Jerry Narron is the face of evil" contingent rears its head.

[redsfanmia]

I have to respectfully disagree.

This team won in spite of Jerry Narron.

His in game decisions are horrid, and whoever taught him how to fill out a lineup card needs a swift kick in the nuts.

Falling in love with KGJ in the 3 hole and RA in the 4 hole told me all I need to know about Narron.

I think you are completely off base. Narron may not be the greatest stategist but he has the respect of the players and they over acheived most of the season. I say a team playing over its head is not winning in spite of the manager.

[Spring~Fields]

This team won in spite of Jerry Narron.

Your almost right, but I have to disagree with you. The Reds never won with Narron.

His in game decisions are horrid, and whoever taught him how to fill out a lineup card needs a swift kick in the nuts.

I agree with that, can't help but to.
Benched EE and played Clayton just a couple mistakes, over used his bullpen.

Falling in love with KGJ in the 3 hole and RA in the 4 hole told me all I need to know about Narron.

I think that Narron is or was afraid of Griffey and Aurilia

Has Narron ever managed a winning team?

[Spring~Fields]

But let's say that this happened...

April -17-8
May -13-15
June -15-12
July -12-13
August -13-16
September -13-14
October -1-0

Doesn't look that much better does it? Not counting October, 2 months over .500. The rest, not very good at all. Pretty bad actually. Guess what? If that happened your Cincinnati Reds are the 2006 N.L Central Champions.

April was an outliar, you need to look from May forward for the truest version of the team and that was not a contender. Especially if you choose to ignore the loss of some key players.

May - October 137 games 63 - 74 .459 Traditionally not considered a contender in sports.

[WVRedsFan]

April was an outliar, you need to look from May forward for the truest version of the team and that was not a contender. Especially if you choose to ignore the loss of some key players.

May - October 137 games 63 - 74 .459 Traditionally not considered a contender in sports.

Below his career record at that. His career winning percentage as a manager is .473, and you are correct. Never a winning season. Ever. Without that 17-8 April, his managerial skills equaled to a 63-74 record, eerily close to his first year with the Rangers at 62-72. That speaks for itself. 62, 72, 46, and 80 wins is not the stuff that you look for in a manager in his career. Except on RedsZone.

Year    League   Team     Age  G     W    L    WP   Finish
+----+-----------+--------+---+-----+----+----+------+------+
 2001 AL West     Texas     45   134   62   72   .463      4
 2002 AL West     Texas     46   162   72   90   .444      4

 2005 NL Cent     Cincnnti  49    93   46   46   .500      5
 2006 NL Cent     Cincnnti  50   162   80   82   .494      3
+----+-----------+--------+---+-----+----+----+------+------+
                  Cincnnti       255  126  128   .496
                  Texas          296  134  162   .453
+----+-----------+--------+---+-----+----+----+------+------+
      TOTAL                      551  260  290   .473

[GAC]

From the article redsmetz posted....

The Reds are the anti-Twins. The Reds are a big bunch of boppers in the batter's box, butchers on the base paths and dodos on defense. Generally speaking. About their pitiful pitching, nothing needs to be said.

Boy that nailed it pretty good IMO.

They have a pretty good #1/#2 punch in the rotation with Arroyo and Harang. We may have another quality SP in the next year in Bailey.

Wouldn't that be like "acquiring" that other SP we know we all need? It's just waiting another year?

I'd rather see them do that then spend ridiculous money on a Lily, Marquis, and some of these others.

I bet Krivsky can't wait till the Milton contract is gone. So why would (or should) he go and sign another "Milton"?.... and for a far worse contract!

That would disappoint me.

I think our offense will be "middle of the road" at the least. It could be better if Dunn rebounds, and if EE continues to show progress. He should get a full season in this year.

We are going to miss Aurilla. How many on here would find themselves admitting that?

But there are some things we can do before ST that are not impossible.

To say that this FO is "inactive" because they haven't come home with that BIG acquistion, when what we need (pitching) is simply ridiculous in this current market, is inaccurate.

When I look at all the moves that Krivsky made last year... whether one agrees with them all or not.... I'm sure he and his staff are doing quite a bit "behind the scenes".

[jmac]

Finishing the year under .500 and almost winning the division only tells me that we were in a weak division last year.

Say the Reds had won the division. They would have gotten stomped in the playoffs, IMO.

let me add that when many say " contenders" ...we are considering the division we are in.
Would the reds be contenders in the AL east....no
the AL central....no
the AL west...no

However we play in the National League and whether you call 81-81 contenders or not is up to the individual but the fact remains that a team that went 83-78 won the division and were not dominated but rather won the World Series.

I would like the reds chances against an NL team in a short series with Harang and BA as the top 2 starters.

As far as the upcoming season.....as of now ...the cards stros and yes, the cubs dont seem invincible.
Now can the reds "compete,contend,slip into" a playoff spot with current roster???
Well.....with a couple of moves ....it's at least possible !

[Spring~Fields]

Well.....with a couple of moves ....it's at least possible !

It is possible, the starting pitching of Harang, Arroyo, Milton, Lohse and other could hold up in this division and make it through. Perhaps Milton comes back healthier, the new pitching coach helps Lohse, Milton and the bullpen just enough, they could be just good enough.

Especially with a couple of contributing pickup moves as you have said.

Now the guys that work hard and do good work on the RS vs RA stats etc are going to tell us otherwise, and probably will be right without some deviations or variables really swinging things more than they normally do.

But the Reds gm filling spots with what everyone says are of no consequence, with guys such as those last two or three causes some worry for those of us who had at least some hope that they might pick up some quality along the way to make the team better.