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Thread: Brandon McCarthy to Texas

  1. #16
    Member Spitball's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon McCarthy to Texas

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Doubt it. McCarthy gave up 1.81 HR per nine. He could be really bad in Texas. Williams sold high before McCarthy got exposed in the rotation full time.
    Nate silver agrees.

    December 23, 2006, 07:33 PM ET
    Bye-Bye, Brandon


    by Nate Silver


    Leave it to Kenny Williams to break the monotony of one of the slowest weeks in the baseball news cycle: the Brandon McCarthy era has come to an end in Chicago before it ever really began.

    McCarthy’s name carries a lot of weight in sabermetric circles, and Williams had declared him all but untradable as recently as this summer, when he’d been bandied about as part of the potential booty for Alfonso Soriano. Publicly and privately, the desire to ensure that McCarthy had a job in the starting rotation was a big part of the White Sox‘ justification for moving Freddy Garcia earlier this month.

    So why the sudden about-face? The answer is likely the same as it usually is with Williams: he saw an opportunity to add value and he took it. And on that score, he’ll probably wind up on the winning side of this deal.

    McCarthy has just one major flaw as a pitcher, but it’s potentially a fatal one: his Eric Milton-esque tendency to give up home runs. McCarthy yielded home runs at a rate faster than all but a handful of pitchers in the big leagues last season. He’s a flyball pitcher, and his home run rates have been high throughout his professional career, both in the majors and the minors. I watched video of a fair number of McCarthy’s home runs on MLB.com, and it was clear that they were coming on bad pitches, fastballs left up in the hitting zone or hanging curveballs thrown on bad counts. While there’s certainly an element of luck involved in giving up home runs, in McCarthy’s case there’s every reason to think that this is a real and persistant problem.

    Add it all up, and McCarthy’s PECOTA projected EqERA as a starting pitcher next year is an uninspiring 4.97. The raw ERA projection is higher than that, of course, since Texas is a bad environment for a pitcher with gopher ball issues, just as Chicago was.

    John Danks has had his own problems with home runs, and his EqERA projection is 5.07, which isn’t any better. Still, the White Sox win this trade on tiebreakers. Danks is nearly two years younger than McCarthy, which isn’t as important for pitching prospects as it is for hitting prospects, but still counts for something. He’s a year and a half behind McCarthy in service time. And he wasn’t the only arm the White Sox picked up in this deal.

    Danks might also be a better fit for pitching coach Don Cooper. It is Cooper who would have been the key to McCarthy’s development, who could have gotten him away from the bad habits that led to all those longballs, but one senses that the White Sox viewed McCarthy as stubborn, perhaps to the point of being uncoachable. They also don’t run the risk of upsetting Danks if he starts the year in Triple-A, which should produce a genuine competition in spring training between Danks, Gavin Floyd, Charlie Haeger, and perhaps even Lance Broadway.

    That is, if Williams doesn’t have another surprise up his sleeve first.
    "I am your child from the future. I'm sorry I didn't tell you this earlier." - Dylan Easton

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  3. #17
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    Re: Brandon McCarthy to Texas

    It's a strange deal...

    McCarthy is the kind of pitcher a lot of teams would really want. He has ML experience and some success, plus he projects nicely. Maybe he won't become an ace, but he could become a very good middle of the rotation guy at the rate things are going. Plus, he's managed to stay relatively healthy. What makes him more valuable than Danks, Masset, and Rasner?

    Danks bothers me. He has ace upside, but ever since his promotion from High A, his production has been suspect. His GO/FO was skewed more towards flyballs this year than in previous years. He also gave up more HRs (22). Now, his Ks have improved and his BBs remained constant this season, to his advantage. I just worry about a guy who begins giving up noticeably more flyballs and HRs as he advances through the minors. He'll be going to one of the most HR-friendly ballparks in baseball, to boot. He'll need another half season in AAA to get fully adjusted, imo. I think he'll turn out okay, but I have doubts about him becoming an ace under these circumstances.

    Masset has good potential and should contribute right away. No problems there.

    Rasner doesn't appear to be anything special. Not enough Ks, too many BBs, and a mediocre GO/FO rate.

    I can't find much about Paisano. He's a 19 year old 6'1 165 lb OF out of Venezuela with decent patience and some pop in the Venezuelan Summer League. It's tough to project those guys, so he could make the White Sox regret trading him or he might turn out to be nothing. Who knows?

  4. #18
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    Re: Brandon McCarthy to Texas

    I'm not real big on McCarthy any more, either. I think Chicago may end up with the better end of this deal in that they're getting two young pitchers who will help at the major league level before long. McCarthy has moved extremely quickly, and I found it odd that he sat all last year in the BP. He could have used the development time as a starter. And now he's headed to a homer haven. I haven't seen him enough to really say this with conviction, but I have a sense his mechanics will become troublesome -- he seems to put a lot of stress on that elbow. For Texas' sake, I hope I'm wrong -- he seems to be exactly the type of pitcher they have needed to pursue for years.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  5. #19
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon McCarthy to Texas

    Danks is still real young and held his own in a pitchers league in AAA. Danks probably does have a little higher upside than McCarthy and less service time. I'd say it's a virtually even deal if it's just those two, with a slight edge to Texas b/c McCarthy has proven he can get major league hitters out. However, the question to me is in the other two guys the Sox got. Rasner is real young and apparnetly pretty raw, but has good stuff. Massett is pretty much ready but looks like a long reliever type.

    If Danks and McCarthy don't give you notably different performances, you have to call this a win for the Sox.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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