Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 17

Thread: Brewers sign Suppan for 4 yr./ 42 million

  1. #1
    Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2002
    Location
    Rochester NY
    Posts
    95

    Brewers sign Suppan for 4 yr./ 42 million

    To me, this puts Krivsky's situation this winter in proper perspective. I would be trying to strengthen the bullpen and get quality players whenever possible too if I were he. I think now that any significant trade will happen later in the spring, if at all. This is getting incredulous! Suppan at $42 million? Come on!!!!!!!

    http://www.rotoworld.com/Content/pla...aspx?sport=MLB
    "Just shut up and play baseball"...Mike Piazza

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Raaaaaaaandy guttle11's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Posts
    4,118

    Re: Brewers sign Suppan for 4 yr./ 42 million

    So basically they traded Doug Davis for Jeff Suppan.

    As a Reds fan, I'm ok with that.
    "I saw Wedding Crashers accidentally. I bought a ticket for Grizzly Man and went into the wrong theater. After an hour, I figured I was in the wrong theater, but I kept waiting. Thatís the thing about bear attacks. They come when you least expect it."-Dwight K. Schrute

  4. #3
    Puffy 3:16 Puffy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2002
    Location
    Panama City Beach
    Posts
    13,771

    Re: Brewers sign Suppan for 4 yr./ 42 million

    Jeff Suppan - blech. I'm glad he's still in the central.
    "I came here to kick ass and chew bubble gum... and I'm all out of bubble gum."
    - - Rowdy Roddy Piper

    "It takes a big man to admit when he is wrong. I am not a big man"
    - - Fletch

  5. #4
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2001
    Location
    Bellefontaine, Ohio
    Posts
    26,671

    Re: Brewers sign Suppan for 4 yr./ 42 million

    Quote Originally Posted by Puffy View Post
    Jeff Suppan - blech. I'm glad he's still in the central.
    Him and Marquis. It's almost like going out to the curb and trading garbage cans with my neighbor.
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

  6. #5
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    7,441

    Re: Brewers sign Suppan for 4 yr./ 42 million

    Brewers agreed to terms with RHP Jeff Suppan, who had been with the Cardinals, on a four-year, $42 million contract with a club option for 2011.

    A contract that was impossible to envision when Suppan's ERA was over 5.00 for the majority of last season. Suppan is durable, but he still fell short of 200 innings in each of his three seasons in St. Louis. Last year, he gave up 100 runs and struck out 104 batters in 190 innings. The Brewers are committing an awfully big chunk of their payroll to a guy who might not be anything more than a fourth starter. Still, while we'd like to argue that the money would have been better spent on a center fielder, it's not like the guys in the same price range -- Juan Pierre and Gary Matthews Jr. -- were better investments.
    From rotoworld.com
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  7. #6
    Your killin' me Smalls! StillFunkyB's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    Florence, KY
    Posts
    3,128

    Re: Brewers sign Suppan for 4 yr./ 42 million

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    Him and Marquis. It's almost like going out to the curb and trading garbage cans with my neighbor.
    But what if said garbage can holds more crap?
    "And the fact that watching him pitch is like having someone poop on your soul." FCB on Gary Majewski

  8. #7
    Member Eric_Davis's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    Portland, Or
    Posts
    5,041

    Re: Brewers sign Suppan for 4 yr./ 42 million

    Quote Originally Posted by Spike View Post
    To me, this puts Krivsky's situation this winter in proper perspective. I would be trying to strengthen the bullpen and get quality players whenever possible too if I were he. I think now that any significant trade will happen later in the spring, if at all. This is getting incredulous! Suppan at $42 million? Come on!!!!!!!

    http://www.rotoworld.com/Content/pla...aspx?sport=MLB
    No kidding! $10M per year for four guaranteed years for a pitcher who'll be lucky to be at .500 for those four years?! That's not a market I would want to participate in either. That's a fool's market.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

  9. #8
    This one's for you Edd Heath's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    Dayton Area
    Posts
    8,471

    Re: Brewers sign Suppan for 4 yr./ 42 million

    everytime I read this thread, I absolutely laugh out loud.
    Some people play baseball. Baseball plays Jay Bruce.

  10. #9
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2001
    Location
    Bellefontaine, Ohio
    Posts
    26,671

    Re: Brewers sign Suppan for 4 yr./ 42 million

    Quote Originally Posted by StillFunkyB View Post
    But what if said garbage can holds more crap?
    Then it's time for a garage sale!
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

  11. #10
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2001
    Location
    Bellefontaine, Ohio
    Posts
    26,671

    Re: Brewers sign Suppan for 4 yr./ 42 million

    Quote Originally Posted by Heath View Post
    everytime I read this thread, I absolutely laugh out loud.
    We both must do a lot of laughing between here and clevelandbrowns.com

    We're a sorry lot!
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

  12. #11
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2001
    Location
    Bellefontaine, Ohio
    Posts
    26,671

    Re: Brewers sign Suppan for 4 yr./ 42 million

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_Davis View Post
    No kidding! $10M per year for four guaranteed years for a pitcher who'll be lucky to be at .500 for those four years?! That's not a market I would want to participate in either. That's a fool's market.
    More like a flea market where 99% of the stuff ain't worth the purchase.

    My wife convinced me to by one of these last year at the local flea market.

    It was in the trash 2 weeks later

    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

  13. #12
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
    Location
    Olathe, KS
    Posts
    13,792

    Re: Brewers sign Suppan for 4 yr./ 42 million

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_Davis View Post
    No kidding! $10M per year for four guaranteed years for a pitcher who'll be lucky to be at .500 for those four years?! That's not a market I would want to participate in either. That's a fool's market.
    Do you think next year's market will be any better? I don't.

    Mediocre players available next season will still be outrageously expensive. Real talent will cost even more money.

    Krivsky bowing out of this year's market because it's "too expensive" is just an excuse to keep fans pacified.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  14. #13
    breath westofyou's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2000
    Location
    PDX
    Posts
    42,803

    Re: Brewers sign Suppan for 4 yr./ 42 million

    Krivsky bowing out of this year's market because it's "too expensive" is just an excuse to keep fans pacified.
    Cardinals are doing it too, it's not just the Reds.

    http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/spo...F?OpenDocument

    With the exception of a few familiar faces, the Cardinals do not see a free agent worth pursuing at current prices, and the club is content to report to Jupiter, Fla., with the roster it has today, general manager Walt Jocketty says.

    Jocketty said that absent adding an unsigned Cardinals' free agent, he would prefer to tinker with the team after spring starts and a secondary market develops than to anxiously spend now.

    "There just isn't much available. So, why use our bullets now? Then we'd get to spring training or the trade deadline and wish we hadn't spent the money.

  15. #14
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
    Location
    Olathe, KS
    Posts
    13,792

    Re: Brewers sign Suppan for 4 yr./ 42 million

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Cardinals are doing it too, it's not just the Reds.

    http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/spo...F?OpenDocument
    I'll bet they're still negotiating with Barry Zito.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  16. #15
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    south of the border
    Posts
    23,858

    Re: Brewers sign Suppan for 4 yr./ 42 million

    BP on the Suppan signing

    Between the two, on Christmas Eve, came the mildly surprising news that Jeff Suppan had reached agreement on four-year, $42-million deal with the Brewers. The Brewers aren't generally a destination for free agents, especially ones coming off NLCS MVPs and who are one of two top pitchers remaining on the market. The Brewers had already made one significant move this offseason, dealing starter Doug Davis for catcher Johnny Estrada, and the financial commitment to Suppan shows that they think they have not just a good team, but a potential winner in the short term.

    Suppan's contract looks like it fits in with the others we've seen this winter, a four-year deal for around $10 million a season, in line with what Ted Lilly and Vicente Padilla and Gil Meche got. Suppan has some markers than those guys don't, however. He’s thrown 200 or more innings five times in his career, and hasn’t missed a start in a very long time. He has more seasons of league-average or better work on his resume than those three combined. If you buy that postseason performance is predictive—most people in the industry put some stock in the notion, although there's no evidence for it—Suppan has had success in October.

    With all of that, there's very little chance that this signing is going to be deemed a success by the Brewers. There’s a void between the pitcher they think they’ve signed and the one who will pitch for them next year, one that has little to do with Suppan himself, and everything to do with the context changing around him. Suppan, remember, isn't an overpowering pitcher. Even over the past three years, his Stuff scores have been unimpressive (2, 5, 5, respectively, where zero is average) and his DERAs have run a half-run to a run higher than his ERAs. Suppan has posted three of his highest GB/FB ratios the past three years as well, pitching to the strength of the Cardinals’ defenses.

    The following chart shows the Rate for each of the past three seasons for each of the Cards' four infield spots, along with the PECOTA projections for the Brewers' infield starters in 2007:

    1B 2B SS 3B
    2004 STL: 108 92 95 114
    2005 STL: 105 100 98 113
    2006 STL: 111 91 98 107

    Average: 108 94 97 111

    2007 MIL: 102 96 105 100

    That's J.J. Hardy's number at shortstop. Bill Hall is projected to a 99, although he's expected to play a number of positions while Hardy gets the playing time at short.

    This is a pretty generous accounting of the Brewers' infield defense, including considerable improvement by Rickie Weeks, who has a career Rate of 90 and who looks bad in Chris Dial’s system as well. (If you just look at the one-year numbers in that system, the Brewers' infielders were roughly one win worse last year at first base, second base and shortstop than the Cards’ infielders were.)

    Even if you accept the generous assessment of the Brewers' defense in '07, you can expect Suppan to give up more hits next season than he has been previously. The bounce he'll get from having Hardy at shortstop is more than lost by the downgrades on the corners. The falloff on the right side of the infield, where the soft-tossing Suppan needs support, is going to cost him hits and runs. (I'm sorry, but I again have to note that the number there for Rickie Weeks just doesn’t feel right. This will be an interesting PECOTA debate.)

    Loosely speaking, PECOTA projects the Brewers to have a league-average infield in '07. Let’s go with that. The Brewers think they’ve signed this guy:

    ERA
    2004: 4.16
    2005: 3.57
    2006: 4.12

    In reality, though, Suppan has been helped by his defense so much that he's actually this guy:

    DERA
    2004: 4.99
    2005: 4.65
    2006: 4.51

    I suspect that we're underestimating the actual effects of more Suppan-generated groundballs becoming singles. There's not just the outs/hits tradeoff, but more pitches thrown, more pitches throw out of the stretch, more pitches thrown under stress, all of which increase the potential for injury to a 32-year-old arm that generall works at max effort.

    Whereas Jeff Suppan was pitching to the strength of his teammates the last three seasons, he'll be pitching to a weakness in 2007. If he were to turn in the exact same performance in 2007 as he did in 2006, it is likely that his ERA would climb by at least half a run just because the defense behind him isn't as good as the one he’s used to. While that’s not his fault, the difference adds up to real runs; Suppan is a 4.50 ERA pitcher who’s been pitching in front of a defense that saves him a third to a half-run of ERA a year. In front of a defense that costs him that much, his ERA will push 5.00.

    That's the difference between a free-agent signing that gets praised and one that gets hammered.

    I mentioned some of the other pitchers who have signed deals this winter. Consider a couple of key 2006 statistics for the pitchers who’ve signed free-agent contracts this winter in roughly the range of Suppan’s deal:

    K/9 Stuff
    Mike Mussina 7.84 27
    Jason Schmidt 7.59 23
    Andy Pettitte 7.47 20
    Vicente Padilla 7.02 17
    Ted Lilly 7.93 16
    Gil Meche 7.52 14
    Jeff Suppan 4.93 5
    Adam Eaton 5.95 2
    Jason Marquis 4.45 -5

    That's a pretty good ordering not only of those pitchers, but of the contracts they signed. The Suppan deal looks a lot more like an expensive risk—not as bad as the Jason Marquis contract, not as good as the Lilly and Padilla deals—than it does a safe bet. The core skills for pitchers are reflected in their Stuff scores, and Suppan's pales not only in comparison to the best pitchers on the market, but to his economic peers. The Brewers simply haven’t purchased what they think they have, and unless their infield defense becomes as good as the recent Cardinals' infield defenses, they're going to be disappointed.

    The issue in play here—the importance of considering the context of performance when evaluating any player
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25