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Thread: starters on the market (and who the Reds should go get)

  1. #1
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    starters on the market (and who the Reds should go get)

    Ok... we all know from last year that Wayne is a last minute shopper. So I humbly submit the following names of starting pitchers the Reds can go get right now.

    While no one available on the open market has great stats right now... the two numbers I thought I would at least look at are groundball-to-flyball ratio (since we know how GABP plays) and last year's salary.

    With that in mind... and with the list below... I declare the pitcher the Reds should be (and may well be) talking to is... Mark Mulder.

    Yes, he's coming off surgery. A risk. But I suspect you can get him for a one year contract to show he's healthy (possibly laden with incentives). Reports have him talking to St. Louis, Texas and "maybe" Cleveland. I think we're Cleveland actually.

    Relevant points: BCast knows Mulder from his days in St. Louis. Knows he would be one "name" player that we could afford, to make good on his promise to make a splash and spend some dough (since AGon and Stanton, while upgrades, are clearly not splashes). It would also set St. Louis back to steal him from them, which doubly helps us. You also have to know that when we spend money for a defensive specialist shortstop, we're going to put him to work. Hence, my belief in signing a groundball pitcher.

    I know folks want Homer to be the guy come spring. But I say you have to prepare for him not being ready. And to do that, you have to go get another starter. As we transition from an offensive club to the Krivsky/Minnesota model of pitching and defense, you need at least 3 good starters. Then let your depth fill in the other spots. We're stuck with Milton (who will perform better, if only because it's another contract year for him) and I think Lohse is a nice low-end fifth starter. Then we can watch Paul Wilson battle back and/or the Lizard take some maturation steps in AAA.

    Anyway... here's the list. See who jumps out at you.


    FREE AGENT STARTERS - CURRENTLY AVAILABLE

    Armas... 1 GB/FB ratio... made $2 mill last year

    Chen... .83 ratio... made $3.8 mill last year

    Estes... 1.79 ratio... made $1.1 mill last year... hurt in April, could be a great one year incentive contract

    Moehler... 1.54 ratio... made $1.5 mill last year

    Mulder... 2 ratio... made $7.75 mill last year... shut down in August, incentive contract with respect for his abilities

    Ohka... 1.43 ratio... made $4.5 mill last year... knows central well

    Park... 1.2 ratio... made $16 mill last year... might want to re-establish himself with a one year contract

    Pineiro... 1.29 ratio... $6.8 mill last year... might want to re-establish himself with a one year contract

    Redman... 1 ratio... $4.5 mill last year... lefty

    Sele... 1.31 ratio... $???... consistent winner

    Thomson... 1.28 ratio... $4.75 mill last year

    Traschel... 1.23 ratio... $2.5 mill last year

    Jeff Weaver... 1.16 ratio... $8.3 mill last year... might want to re-establish himself with a one year contract... could also get along with Arroyo and give the Reds a nasty-boys rotation

    Wells... 1.17 ratio... $4 mill last year... considering retiring, one more year?

    Jerome Williams... 1.18 ratio... $380k last year... only 25, worth a risk?

    Jamey Wright... 2 ratio... $500k last year... 2.53 ratio last year!

    Vic Zambrano... 1.31 ratio... $3 mill last year...coming off arm surgery, looking for a bounceback year?

    and for comparison sake:

    Zito... .89 ratio... $7.9 mill last year... likely seeking $15-18 mill a year multiyear contract

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    Re: starters on the market (and who the Reds should go get)

    Quote Originally Posted by I(heart)Freel View Post
    Anyway... here's the list. See who jumps out at you.


    FREE AGENT STARTERS - CURRENTLY AVAILABLE

    Armas... 1 GB/FB ratio... made $2 mill last year

    Chen... .83 ratio... made $3.8 mill last year

    Estes... 1.79 ratio... made $1.1 mill last year... hurt in April, could be a great one year incentive contract

    Moehler... 1.54 ratio... made $1.5 mill last year

    Mulder... 2 ratio... made $7.75 mill last year... shut down in August, incentive contract with respect for his abilities

    Ohka... 1.43 ratio... made $4.5 mill last year... knows central well

    Park... 1.2 ratio... made $16 mill last year... might want to re-establish himself with a one year contract

    Pineiro... 1.29 ratio... $6.8 mill last year... might want to re-establish himself with a one year contract

    Redman... 1 ratio... $4.5 mill last year... lefty

    Sele... 1.31 ratio... $???... consistent winner

    Thomson... 1.28 ratio... $4.75 mill last year

    Traschel... 1.23 ratio... $2.5 mill last year

    Jeff Weaver... 1.16 ratio... $8.3 mill last year... might want to re-establish himself with a one year contract... could also get along with Arroyo and give the Reds a nasty-boys rotation

    Wells... 1.17 ratio... $4 mill last year... considering retiring, one more year?

    Jerome Williams... 1.18 ratio... $380k last year... only 25, worth a risk?

    Jamey Wright... 2 ratio... $500k last year... 2.53 ratio last year!

    Vic Zambrano... 1.31 ratio... $3 mill last year...coming off arm surgery, looking for a bounceback year?

    and for comparison sake:

    Zito... .89 ratio... $7.9 mill last year... likely seeking $15-18 mill a year multiyear contract
    Armas- Too young.
    Chen- We tried him once before.
    Estes- Read above.
    Mohler- Sucked last time he was here.
    Mulder- Hurt? Check. Experienced? Check. Can he do amazing things with the bat and play the game the right way? Ask WK.
    Ohka- I'd like him but I'd venture to say WK doesn't.
    Park- Boras wants him to close games now. Think's thats where the money is at.
    Pineiro-I'd like him but I'd venture to say WK doesn't.
    Redman- PAAAAAAAAAASSSSSSSSSSS
    Sele- Old? Check. Plays the game the right way? Check. Heeey. We might have something.
    Thomspon- PASSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
    Traschel - Read Sele.
    Weaver- Likely going to price himself out of our range due to that great post season.
    Wells- Pass.
    Williams- I'd like him but WK doesnt. Too young.
    Jamey Wright-Pass.
    Zambrano- The Mets couldnt fix him can we?
    Zito- Hello tomorrow, goodbye to yesterday.
    "For every moment of triumph, for every instance of beauty, many souls must be trampled."
    -Hunter S. Thompson

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    Re: starters on the market (and who the Reds should go get)

    I'd take J. Williams, S. Estes, and B. Moehler on minor league deals.

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    Re: starters on the market (and who the Reds should go get)

    I definitely wouldn't mind going for Mulder, but I think it will be pretty difficult to trump anything St. Louis has to offer. Now that Suppan has moved on to the Brewers, I believe the Cards will do whatever it takes to resign him. However, if the Reds could offer an incentive deal for 07 and an option for 08, i'd be fine with that. Would it be enough to lure him away from the Cards?

    I also remember seeing rumors about the A's possibly making Haren available a few weeks ago. I highly doubt this is true, but if it is, the Reds need to be the first in line for him. I would move anyone not named Bailey or Bruce for him. Perhaps a package of Stubbs, Cueto, and Freel/Denorfia? I might even offer Dunn for him. A rotation of Harang, Arroyo, Haren, Mulder, Milton/Bailey would very tough to beat. Pipe dream? Probably, but these are types of moves the Reds have to be trying to make.

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    Re: starters on the market (and who the Reds should go get)

    Cant trade Drew Stubbs until June.

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    Re: starters on the market (and who the Reds should go get)

    Quote Originally Posted by maniem View Post
    I definitely wouldn't mind going for Mulder, but I think it will be pretty difficult to trump anything St. Louis has to offer. Now that Suppan has moved on to the Brewers, I believe the Cards will do whatever it takes to resign him. However, if the Reds could offer an incentive deal for 07 and an option for 08, i'd be fine with that. Would it be enough to lure him away from the Cards?

    I also remember seeing rumors about the A's possibly making Haren available a few weeks ago. I highly doubt this is true, but if it is, the Reds need to be the first in line for him. I would move anyone not named Bailey or Bruce for him. Perhaps a package of Stubbs, Cueto, and Freel/Denorfia? I might even offer Dunn for him. A rotation of Harang, Arroyo, Haren, Mulder, Milton/Bailey would very tough to beat. Pipe dream? Probably, but these are types of moves the Reds have to be trying to make.
    For Haren, I move Bruce. Why? Give Oakland a could be, for a right now. Bruce is still two years away. Haren is right now. We can sign Haren long term as well.
    "For every moment of triumph, for every instance of beauty, many souls must be trampled."
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  8. #7
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    Re: starters on the market (and who the Reds should go get)

    I like Mulder if we can get him. I hope Wilson comes back and is a suprise 5th starter.

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    Re: starters on the market (and who the Reds should go get)

    Ironic. I was just reading this list over at espn.com...in order...Okha, Trachsel, Sele

    OTOH, WK probably thinks he already has a set rotation of Harang, Arroyo, Lohse, Milton and the Lizard. At least until Homer's ready
    Never overlook the obvious

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    Re: starters on the market (and who the Reds should go get)

    Quote Originally Posted by gm View Post
    Ironic. I was just reading this list over at espn.com...in order...Okha, Trachsel, Sele

    OTOH, WK probably thinks he already has a set rotation of Harang, Arroyo, Lohse, Milton and the Lizard. At least until Homer's ready
    Ugh. Trachsel and Sele--roadkill.

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    Re: starters on the market (and who the Reds should go get)

    Jerome Williams is a guy I wouldn't mind seeing us go after.
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

  12. #11
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    Re: starters on the market (and who the Reds should go get)

    I love your analysis on Mulder and if I coud rep you, I would!!! I think Mulder (injury or not), would be the kind of name that BCast is looking to bring in to create fan interest. Let it be written that this fan would be interested!! I think an incentive laden contract with a base salary around 8 mil and a mutual option for the second year at 10 mil might get it done. Mulder is the kind of low risk / high reward that RZ has been screaming for all off-season.

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    Re: starters on the market (and who the Reds should go get)

    Sele was indeed a consistent winner from 1997-2001. Since then, he has won between 6 and 9 games a year. I guess that's consistent as well. in three of the past four years, his ERA has been over 5. Again, consistent.

    But his best years do match up pretty will with Conine's, so when Krivsky made out his list of players to acquire a decade or so ago, Sele may well have been on it.

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    Re: starters on the market (and who the Reds should go get)

    Quote Originally Posted by tixe View Post
    Sele was indeed a consistent winner from 1997-2001. Since then, he has won between 6 and 9 games a year. I guess that's consistent as well. in three of the past four years, his ERA has been over 5. Again, consistent.

    But his best years do match up pretty will with Conine's, so when Krivsky made out his list of players to acquire a decade or so ago, Sele may well have been on it.
    Add Stanton to that list as well.

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    Re: starters on the market (and who the Reds should go get)

    Quote Originally Posted by tixe View Post
    Sele was indeed a consistent winner from 1997-2001. Since then, he has won between 6 and 9 games a year. I guess that's consistent as well. in three of the past four years, his ERA has been over 5. Again, consistent.

    But his best years do match up pretty will with Conine's, so when Krivsky made out his list of players to acquire a decade or so ago, Sele may well have been on it.
    Certainly not a big Sele fan... and I don't want this thread to get too much about him... but my comment referred to his winning percentages (even recent ones):

    2001 Sea .750
    2002 Ana .471
    2003 Ana .389
    2004 Ana .692
    2005 Sea .333
    2006 LA .571

    In his career, he has won more than he's lost. Guess that was my point.

    But yea... he's pretty far down on my list.
    I have a love-hate relationship with Albert Pujols. Mostly hate.

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    Re: starters on the market (and who the Reds should go get)

    Sele and Traschel could be our fifth starters because..well...Kriv digs those second chance players
    "For every moment of triumph, for every instance of beauty, many souls must be trampled."
    -Hunter S. Thompson


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