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Thread: Votto and Bailey

  1. #1
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    Votto and Bailey

    I have a question for some of you guys who know a lot more about these two prospects than I do.

    How realistic is it to think that Votto and Bailey could be ready to start the season in Cincinnati? If, by some chance, they could be ready...it would make things look a lot better. Instead of sitting still, the Reds would be moving towards the future with two of their best young players.

    Could Votto be good enough at first base? I really believe that it is important to challenge good young hitters rather than to leave them in the minors when they are ready to bloom. Is Votto that close?

    With Homer Bailey, I wouldn't use him in any other rotation spot but #5. While I would hope that he is ready to be very good...I would want the pressure to be lessened by the 5 spot...and it would also diminish the number of innings he would have to log. I have a feeling that Homer could be very good right away. Am I all wet here?


    It would still require the Reds to go get another decent starter. (There is a really strong case made elsewhere on this board for Mark Mulder or Jerome). This would allow the Reds to rely less (or not at all) on Milton or Lohse...something that I think would be really smart (despite contract obligations).

    How close is Jay Bruce? Two years? Or maybe a little less?

    There has to be a way to get this Reds team in a place where we fans feel that there is marked improvement and some kind of commitment to winning. I'm wracking my brain. How about some help?
    Last edited by roby; 12-26-2006 at 07:52 PM. Reason: bad spelling

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    Re: Votto and Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by roby View Post
    With Homer Bailey, I wouldn't use him in any other rotation spot but #5. While I would hope that he is ready to be very good...I would want the pressure to be lessened by the 5 spot...and it would also diminish the number of innings he would have to log.
    The problem with assigning Bailey to the 5 spot is that he could go a week or more between starts. BUZZ! The best thing for Homer (or any young pitching prospect) is to get him consistent reps with regular pitch counts. The 5th starter role (especially in the spring months) is more suited for a veteran swing man who can also pitch long relief in-between starts.
    Never overlook the obvious

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    Re: Votto and Bailey

    I am in the boat that says leave big time prospect in the minors until they force you to bring them up. That way you can get the most bang for your buck. The minute you bring them up the closer they are to arbitration. That is a big factor for small market teams.
    WHEN DOES IT STOP!?!?

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    Re: Votto and Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by Z-Fly View Post
    I am in the boat that says leave big time prospect in the minors until they force you to bring them up. That way you can get the most bang for your buck. The minute you bring them up the closer they are to arbitration. That is a big factor for small market teams.
    You've got it right!
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    Re: Votto and Bailey

    Bailey already has the best stuff in the organization. If you look at how he pitched at Chat. you could make the case for him forcing them to bring him up. I believe he will start in AAA and be up early if the Reds have a starter that is really struggling. It is hard to know when to bring them up and when to let them stay in the minors. Too long in the minors can cause them to lose their confidence, become frustrated with management and then when they become free agents later there will be little chance on them staying with their ML team. On the other hand if you bring them up to early and they are so over matched again the confidence factor is there and they may never recover!

    This is why they have so many scouts and people over the minors who can help make the decision on when a player is ready.

    From everything I have read Votto is still a year away but who knows?

  7. #6
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    Re: Votto and Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by Bigredfan#1 View Post
    Bailey already has the best stuff in the organization. If you look at how he pitched at Chat. you could make the case for him forcing them to bring him up. I believe he will start in AAA and be up early if the Reds have a starter that is really struggling. It is hard to know when to bring them up and when to let them stay in the minors. Too long in the minors can cause them to lose their confidence, become frustrated with management and then when they become free agents later there will be little chance on them staying with their ML team. On the other hand if you bring them up to early and they are so over matched again the confidence factor is there and they may never recover!

    This is why they have so many scouts and people over the minors who can help make the decision on when a player is ready.

    From everything I have read Votto is still a year away but who knows?
    Homer DEFINITELY has not been in the minors long enough to become frustrated! He's still learning the ropes. Even if they don't bring him up until next year, he'll be very young.

    What I certainly don't want to see is anything that even remotely resembles what happened to Ryan Wagner.
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    Re: Votto and Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by gm View Post
    The problem with assigning Bailey to the 5 spot is that he could go a week or more between starts. BUZZ! The best thing for Homer (or any young pitching prospect) is to get him consistent reps with regular pitch counts. The 5th starter role (especially in the spring months) is more suited for a veteran swing man who can also pitch long relief in-between starts.

    good points about bailey and the 5th spot. i wouldn't bring him up north this spring unless he showed he was ready to be a number 3 or 4. if they think he is just ready for the 5th man spot keep him in louisville for the first month or two. as for votto the signing of hatteburg and trading for connine almost kills joey's chances for 2007. if joey starts at louisville and tears it up it may allow us to move either connine or hatteburg and bring votto up at the trade deadline. if the reds fall out of it by the trade deadline i would love to see that move made. it wouldn't hurt to get him some AB'S this season so he can be ready to play everyday come 2008. as for bruce i see maybe a september callup in 2008 and possibly a starter come 2009. if he's ready before then it would be icing on the cake. i see alot of jd drew(minus the ego) in bruce. he could be really special by the time he puts his cincinnati uniform on.
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    Re: Votto and Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by Z-Fly View Post
    I am in the boat that says leave big time prospect in the minors until they force you to bring them up. That way you can get the most bang for your buck. The minute you bring them up the closer they are to arbitration. That is a big factor for small market teams.
    I agree here, but there are 2 things that need to be thought about before implementing a policy like this:

    1) Think about Upton and Young in TB. You have to be careful to use it to the team's advantage while not outright screwing the prospect over. I bet that, come arbitration and FA time, those two will not be kind to the TB front office.

    2) Who is the current #5 starter? There is a pretty decent chance that Bailey could outpitch both Milton and Lohse in 2007, forgetting the mystery man in the 5 slot. So can we actually believe that the FO is serious about winning this season if they get some reject to come in and pitch every 5th day? Depending on this situation, I think it will speak volumes about the FO mentality in 2007.

    And I really don't think Wagner blew in Cincy b/c he was rushed. There's a really good chance that he never would have put it together. For every Wagner, there's a Gooden or Bonderman who end up just fine...pitching wise, that is.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Votto and Bailey

    Wagner blew up in Cincy because he could throw his out pitch for strikes and his only other pitch was a too-hittable fastball. Sit on the fastball, hope he can't locate the slider. Voila.

    The one thing I will agree with for Bailey is that once he's up, he needs to stay up. He's not some borderline guy who may or may not have what it takes and could use the audition. He needs to stay put and learn to pitch against his ultimate competition. Look at Bonderman -- at 21 he came up and got beat around a bit. But the Tigers stuck with him. The only question is how much performance do you want out of him pre-arb.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Votto and Bailey

    I think Pitchers and Hitters are different. Bailey is still developing and hasn't even gotten to the point of pitching 150 innings. I think he needs at least a half season at AAA to help baby his arm a little. He may be ready for some starts in the majors in August. I wouldn't want him to go more than 170 Innings or so in 2007 so give him 90 to 100 in AAA and then give him about 10 starts in the majors.

    Votto on the other hand is not a pitcher and the timetable is different. There is no injury nexus to worry about. He has also hit well every year except the year that he was forced to change his approach by DanO's rules. He has a good approach and plenty of plate discipline. He has power and even if he performs below expectations he'd be as good as Hatte and Conine IMO. I'd push him until he fails. He'll probably stay in AAA to work on his defense.

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    Re: Votto and Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by Bigredfan#1 View Post
    Bailey already has the best stuff in the organization. If you look at how he pitched at Chat. you could make the case for him forcing them to bring him up. I believe he will start in AAA and be up early if the Reds have a starter that is really struggling. It is hard to know when to bring them up and when to let them stay in the minors. Too long in the minors can cause them to lose their confidence, become frustrated with management and then when they become free agents later there will be little chance on them staying with their ML team. On the other hand if you bring them up to early and they are so over matched again the confidence factor is there and they may never recover!

    This is why they have so many scouts and people over the minors who can help make the decision on when a player is ready.

    From everything I have read Votto is still a year away but who knows?
    Bailey doesn't have the best stuff in the organization until he proves it at the ML level. Remember, he is going to turn 22 this season. That is still very young for a pitching prospect. I believe he needs to develop physically and as a pitcher. I would like to see him going longer into games in the minors before he comes up to Cincy. I know he is always going to go deep into pitch counts b/c he is a strike out pitcher but ML level hitters will work him more and that has to get factored into the decision on when to bring him up to the big club.

  13. #12
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    Re: Votto and Bailey

    Don't fall in love with prospects.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

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    Bailey does has the best stuff...

    according to those in the know! I do not advocate bringing him up yet but there is a danger of bringing him up too early and too late. Just because he has not pitched in the majors you can't say he has to prove he has the best stuff. It is like a collega basketball player being drafted in the pros and they say before he ever gets there he will be our best rebounder or our best shooter or ball handler. Yep he might fail but that doesn't mean he doesn't have the best stuff!

  15. #14
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    Re: Votto and Bailey

    Bring Votto in for a late season look when the rosters expand. I might think about Bailey at that time too but it really depends on how he looks at that point and what kind of year he is having.

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    Re: Votto and Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by TeamBoone View Post
    Homer DEFINITELY has not been in the minors long enough to become frustrated! He's still learning the ropes. Even if they don't bring him up until next year, he'll be very young.

    What I certainly don't want to see is anything that even remotely resembles what happened to Ryan Wagner.
    I keep seeing this Ryan Wagner stuff pop up all of the time when theres talk of bringing someone up too soon and I dissagree. Human nature is to rebound and recover, people do it everyday. Whether its a death of a loved one or losing a job or whatever. If a pitcher with the talent that Ryan Wagner had cant recover mentally from a bad stretch in the bigs, there is alot more to it than being brought along too soon. I think this is the main reason he was traded to Washington. A closer type pitcher needs something special deep inside him that no other athlete has, its a heres what I got and you cant touch it kind of attitude. This cannot be found in a player that would let a rough year in the majors effect him like it did Wagner. I think he was missing what it takes to be a top level player and Wayne realized it, sending him back to the man who never did. Ryan Wagner is like one of the many homeless people you see on the way to the ball park, and you ask yourself why don't they pick themselves up and start over. The answer is that they may have what it takes as far as the skill to do a job and live an everyday life, but they don't have the heart or desire to do what it takes to get it done. I don't think thats the case with Homer, hes got a good head on his shoulders, and He's not begging to be brought up verbally, hes doing it with his results.


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