The #3 spot seems to be another runaway, so we have:
1. Homer Bailey
2. Jay Bruce
3. Joey Votto
Things should start getting interesting soon.
Johnny Cueto
Josh Hamilton
Paul Janish
Sam LeCure
Milton Loo
Drew Stubbs
Chris Valaika
Sean Watson
Travis Wood
The #3 spot seems to be another runaway, so we have:
1. Homer Bailey
2. Jay Bruce
3. Joey Votto
Things should start getting interesting soon.
"In baseball, you don't know nothin'"...Yogi Berra
This should be another runaway. Cueto's the man.
Call me crazy, but I'm voting for Stubbs. Years of being a Reds fan have taught me too much about the injury minefield that young pitchers have to traverse. Stubbs needs to make some adjustments to his swing; I'm betting he can do that. The other tools are there in abundance.
"In baseball, you don't know nothin'"...Yogi Berra
If you're going to go offensive, chico, then Valaika is your man. His bat is supoerior to Stubbs in all facets, with the possible exception of HR power. Too, he can play a middle infield position (SS), at least at this point. Both were college guys in Rookie League and Valaika doesn't K much at all up to this point.
Yes, Stubbs is talented, but, then again, so was Drew Henson.
(BTW, because my Cueto argument was obviously not persuasive enough in the last round, he's my vote again this round.) Great arm, great year. Only question, at this point, is his frame.
At worst, Cueto looks like a probable late inning reliever, a la Little Man Gordon.
I voted for Travis Wood - he exceeded expectations by: a) pitching the whole year without sustaining an arm injury; b) pitching the whole year at A ball as a 19 yr old; c) improving his breaking pitch; d) not overthrowing his fastball - I think he has a plus fastball - but worked on his secondary pitches. I think he will be a starting pitcher for the Reds debuting in 2009 or 2010.
Wood and Cueto are very close. I went with Cueto because:
1. Half Season in A+ with some success. Wood still hasn't pitched in A+.
2. Wood's walk rate jumped by almost an entire walk per nine in 2006 at low A.
I wonder if Wood will be fooling them less the higher he goes. A rising walk rate may not mean much or could mean a lot of things. I wonder if it means he gets guys out by chasing and the higher he goes, the less they chase. If so, that doesn't bode well for success at higher levels. (Cueto has the problem too but his walk rate is still lower at a higher level.)
Not much else to differentiate these guys (K rates and HR rates very similar), so right or wrong, I go with Cueto at 4 and will go with Wood at 5 when its posted.
I voted Travis Wood, but by a slim margin over Cueto.
1. He is a year younger and they both started the season at the same level.
2. He is left handed with an advanced change up.
3. Over the last two seasons he has thrown about the same innings (188 to 187), but his 2 year numbers are better.
4. They allowed nearly the same amount of HR while in Dayton together, but again, Cueto was a year older.
Last edited by dougdirt; 12-30-2006 at 12:45 AM.
Cueto is my choice.
Electric stuff, electric arm. Great control, keeps the ball in the yard. I think he's among one of the topp 100 prospects in baseball.
Always something you want to see out of your pitching prospects.3. Over the last two seasons he has thrown
Wood's changeup made a lot of Low A batters look like crap last year, but his drop in velocity and inconsistent curveball leave a few too many question marks for my taste. Cueto may be a year older, but he's got 3 good pitches and can throw it over the plate. There's not as much to worry about with him other than his size. Wood's cieling is right up there with a Cole Hamels in my opinion, but Cueto has much less of a downside at this point.
I've got Wood. I have never gotten to see any of these guys play, but based on what I read, I would think that Wood is #4.
"My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton
A former Number 1 draft pick is my choice. Yes I realize that he hasn't played much but the guy was obviously electric just a few years ago. He might end up replacing Kearns this season and making us forget the huge blemish on Wayne's record. Call me crazy but I think the one area that WayneK excels in is finding gems that no one else wants. Hamilton is 2007s Phillips....
Tim McCarver: Baseball Quotes
I remember one time going out to the mound to talk with Bob Gibson. He told me to get back behind the batter, that the only thing I knew about pitching was that it was hard to hit.
1) Homer Bailey
2) Jay Bruce
3) Joey Votto
4) Johnny Cueto
I went with Cueto over Wood by a very slight margin. Wood's age tempted me to vote for him, and I could probably go either way. Cueto fared a little better in walk rate and home run rate at Dayton, and he also had a pretty solid half season in high A-ball.
The Lost Decade Average Season: 74-88
2014-22 Average Season: 71-91
You could be very correct. With Griffey's health issues and the need for power I could see Hamilton getting more ABs than we imagine. I can't put him ahead of the top 5 though just because the Reds can't send him down to develop. He's not a finished product and has a lot of rust to shake off. He could also revert and wash out due to his lifestyle. If he overcomes all the negatives he could be better than all of them, but there is a lot more going against him than the others.
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