Organizational Pitching Depth

[mth123]

Looking through the rosters and trying to project the starting pitching and who ends-up where. I came up with the chart below. Not sure on some of the younger guys and I don't know if Richie Gardner, Chris Gruler or Steve Kelly are still around.

 
Spot #	Majors	        AAA	        AA	        A+       	A-	   
1	Aaron Harang	Homer Bailey	Johnny Cueto	Travis Wood	Josh Ravin	   
2	Bronson Arroyo	Tom Shearn	Sam Lecure	Carlos Fisher	Jordan Smith	   
3	Kyle Lohse	Phil Dumatrait	Camilo Vazquez	Richie Gardner	Phil Valiquette	   
4	Eric Milton	Bob Livingston	Eric Junge	Daryl Thompson	Anthony Gressick	   
5	Eliz. Ramirez	Tyler Pelland	Nick Moran	Francisco Mateo	Brandon Rice	   
6	Matt Belisle	Steve Kelly	Wes Wilkerson	Chris Gruler	Rafael Gonzalez

Anyone with more info? Are these the right levels for some of these guys in 2007?

[corkedbat]

Any chance that Pauly starts a comeback this year or is he toast? Didn't know Gruler was still around.

[mth123]

Any chance that Pauly starts a comeback this year or is he toast? Didn't know Gruler was still around.

I'm not sure about Gruler either but he did get 5 starts (15 Innings at a 3.60 ERA) in the Gulf Coast League in 2006. From everything I can tell, Pauly hasn't pitched since 2004. I assumed he was toast and left him off.

[reds44]

Is this where you thik they will start 07 or end up?

[mth123]

Is this where you thik they will start 07 or end up?

I'm guessing it's where they start out, but it isn't a perfect fit. There really aren't enough guys for the AA level and more than A+ and A- can hold. A guy like Cueto should probably spend a half year at A+ for example.

[HokieRed]

Interesting to see this all laid out. Some guys on the lists, though, are probably meant for relief. Wilkerson and Moran have been used almost exclusively in relief for several seasons; even Junge may be used there. He pitched both as a starter and reliever last year and was a reliever during his very brief major league stints. Junge has spent the last two years in AAA so I'd expect him to be at Louisville if the FO thinks there's any chance at all he can help the Reds. Might well be that either Elizardo or Belisle is also at Louisville. So I'd expect Louisville to be Bailey, Lizard or Belisle, Dumatrait, Livingston, Junge, with Pelland spending a little more time at AA--unless of course both Ramirez and Belisle make the big club, which is perfectly possible.

[HokieRed]

Some other names to consider. For some reason, James Avery never gets any respect, but I'd expect him to be at AA at the beginning of the season. His second half at Sarasota last year very closely parallels LeCure's, though when Avery is good, he seems to be more dominant. I'd also expect Daniel Guerrero to get some starts at Dayton, maybe later at Sarasota, and both Arneson and DeJesus to get some at Dayton, particularly Arneson based on last year.

[Superdude]

Will Sean Watson be starting?

[dougdirt]

No one really knows Superdude, guess we will find out next season.

[mth123]

Good points HokieRed. Some responses.

- HokieRed is right about Wilkerson and Moran. I took them off.
- I left Avery and Guerrero off (oops!) but with Wilkerson and Moran in the pen there is some room.
- I assumed that Junge was picked-up for organizational filler and I am hoping here that Pelland starts at AAA so I stuck Junge where he seemed most needed. They could easily flip-flop.
- Not sure if Lizard and Belisle can be sent down. Right now they would seem to be needed in the majors.
- I'm guessing that Sean Watson will be taking a bee-line to the majors as a reliever so I didn't include him as a starter.
- Like I said, I'm still unsure of the younger guys. I added DeJesus and Arneson who I left off originally because they seemed to split time in the rotation and the bullpen. I'm sure that a lot of these guys will be swinging back and forth.

Updated chart:

 
Spot #	Majors	        AAA	        AA	        A+       	A-	   
1	Aaron Harang	Homer Bailey	Johnny Cueto	Travis Wood	Josh Ravin	   
2	Bronson Arroyo	Tom Shearn	Sam Lecure	Carlos Fisher	Jordan Smith	   
3	Kyle Lohse	Phil Dumatrait	Camilo Vazquez	Phil Valiquette	Daniel Guerrero/Jamie Arneson	   
4	Eric Milton	Bob Livingston	Eric Junge	Daryl Thompson	Anthony Gressick/Misael DeJesus	   
5	Eliz. Ramirez	Tyler Pelland	James Avery	Francisco Mateo Brandon Rice	   
6	Matt Belisle	Steve Kelly	Richie Gardner	Chris Gruler	Rafael Gonzalez

[Degenerate39]

I thought Homer would be in AA

[mth123]

duplicate. Hit the wrong button.

[mth123]

Taking this a step further, I've added bullpen spots. I may be missing some guys and might even have a guy or two who is no longer in the organization. Most of these bullpen guys will end-up being irrelevant IMO but I'm anal and want to try for a complete picture.

I'm even less sure about the Bullpen spots than the rotation spots, but I'll let you guys correct me and educate the board in the process. I'm guessing Shack is cut in spring.

Spot #	Majors	        AAA	         AA	         A+             A-
1	Aaron Harang	Homer Bailey	Johnny Cueto	Travis Wood	Josh Ravin
2	Bronson Arroyo	Tom Shearn	Sam Lecure	Carlos Fisher	Jordan Smith
3	Kyle Lohse	Phil Dumatrait	Camilo Vazquez	Phil Valiquette	Daniel Guerrero/Jamie Arneson
4	Eric Milton	Bob Livingston	James Avery	Daryl Thompson	Anthony Gressick/Misael Dejesus
5	Eliz. Ramirez	Tyler Pelland	Eric Junge	Francisco Mateo	Brandon Rice
6	Matt Belisle	Steve Kelly	Richie Gardner	Chris Gruler	Rafael Gonzalez


Pen Spot		
1	Mike Stanton	David Schafer	Sean Watson	Robert Manual	Derrick Lutz
2	David Weathers	Jon Coutlangus	C Bohorquez	Damien Ursin	Brandon Camardese
3	Todd Coffey	Calvin Medlock	Nick Moran	R. Haltiwanger	Lee Tabor
4	Bill Bray	Carlos Guevera	James Paduch	Logan Ondrusek
5	Rheal Cormier	Wes Wilkerson	Brock Till	Jon George
6	Gary Majewski   Brad Salmon

[Kc61]

Majewski was omitted.

Unless a reliever gets cut, Salmon presumably begins at AAA and gets an early call up when needed.

I seem to remember that Gruler cut short his 2006. Don't know if he is active any more.

[mth123]

Majewski was omitted.

Unless a reliever gets cut, Salmon presumably begins at AAA and gets an early call up when needed.

I seem to remember that Gruler cut short his 2006. Don't know if he is active any more.

Oops. You're right. I didn't think I'd screw-up the major league roster. No place for Shack either. This makes these vet signings look even like more a waste of $ IMO.