A Shot At Defining SP Rotation Slots (Long)

[tomd63]

Saw some discussions in a few different threads here on how to determine what a #1, #2, #3, #4, or #5 starting pitcher looks like. I've came up with a method to attempt to define what each of these may look like. Below is the method I used and the data for the 2006 season. Hope you find this as interesting as I did.

I first extracted all starting pitching statistics. I then sorted the data for all pitchers in each league by ERA (Then later XERA). Then, for each league, beginning at the top of the list, I totalled up enough IP to account for a #1 SP for each team in the league. I totalled the statistics for these pitchers and divided by the number of teams in the league to come up with the average #1 SP for the league. I then repeated this process with the remaining pitchers for each of the remaining pitching rotation slots #2 - #5. I determined the number of innings pitched for each rotation slot, by trying to come as close to the following as I could.

Slot IP
#1 220
#2 210
#3 200
#4 190
#5 The Rest

Here is the data for the 2006 season.

2006 ERA Rotation Slots

AL Rot Slots W L ERA GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP XERA
Avg AL #1 SP 17 10 3.41 35 222 209 93 84 22 63 167 1.23 3.59
Avg AL #2 SP 14 11 4.24 34 209 219 107 98 25 62 145 1.35 4.38
Avg AL #3 SP 13 11 4.65 33 199 212 110 103 24 67 142 1.40 4.52
Avg AL #4 SP 11 13 5.23 34 190 217 120 111 29 66 112 1.49 5.26
Avg AL #5 SP 6 14 6.95 29 145 198 120 112 27 58 83 1.76 6.81
Avg AL SP 12 12 4.73 32 189 206 107 99 25 62 127 1.42 4.76

Rotation Slots ERA Range
AL #1 Starters Under 3.87
AL #2 Starters 3.87 - 4.44
AL #3 Starters 4.45 - 4.87
AL #4 Starters 4.88 - 5.86
AL #5 Starters Over 5.86

NL Rot Slots W L ERA GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP XERA
Avg NL #1 SP 15 9 3.31 35 221 200 89 81 21 71 169 1.22 3.46
Avg NL #2 SP 13 12 4.07 34 209 207 104 95 24 66 161 1.30 4.05
Avg NL #3 SP 12 12 4.70 35 202 214 115 106 25 76 141 1.43 4.64
Avg NL #4 SP 10 13 5.34 34 186 211 120 111 27 70 113 1.50 5.19
Avg NL #5 SP 5 11 7.28 21 105 135 90 85 21 48 69 1.74 6.63
Avg NL SP 11 12 4.65 32 188 197 106 97 24 67 133 1.41 4.58

Rotation Slots ERA Range
NL #1 Starters Under 3.79
NL #2 Starters 3.79 - 4.31
NL #3 Starters 4.32 - 4.91
NL #4 Starters 4.92 - 6.00
NL #5 Starters Over 6.00

2006 XERA Rotation Slots

AL Rot Slots W L ERA GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP XERA
Avg AL #1 SP 17 9 3.56 36 225 208 98 89 21 64 177 1.21 3.44
Avg AL #2 SP 15 12 4.38 34 211 211 110 103 26 69 165 1.33 4.17
Avg AL #3 SP 13 12 4.56 34 200 217 110 102 26 65 127 1.41 4.67
Avg AL #4 SP 11 13 5.21 34 192 230 120 111 29 63 106 1.52 5.49
Avg AL #5 SP 6 13 6.82 28 136 189 111 103 26 55 73 1.79 7.03
Avg AL SP 12 12 4.73 32 189 206 107 99 25 62 127 1.42 4.76

Rotation Slots XERA Range
AL #1 Starters Under 3.94
AL #2 Starters 3.94 - 4.39
AL #3 Starters 4.40 - 5.01
AL #4 Starters 5.02 - 5.94
AL #5 Starters Over 5.94

NL Rot Slots W L ERA GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP XERA
Avg NL #1 SP 14 10 3.49 35 222 195 93 86 21 70 184 1.19 3.28
Avg NL #2 SP 13 12 4.08 34 210 206 104 95 25 67 158 1.30 4.05
Avg NL #3 SP 11 12 4.68 33 196 212 111 102 23 68 119 1.44 4.67
Avg NL #4 SP 11 13 5.25 34 188 211 119 109 28 74 121 1.52 5.23
Avg NL #5 SP 5 11 7.03 22 109 143 91 85 22 51 71 1.78 6.81
Avg NL SP 11 12 4.65 32 188 197 106 97 24 67 133 1.41 4.58

Rotation Slots XERA Range
NL #1 Starters Under 3.68
NL #2 Starters 3.68 - 4.37
NL #3 Starters 4.38 - 4.95
NL #4 Starters 4.96 - 5.61
NL #5 Starters Over 5.61

Here is how each of the Reds starters from last season fared.

Reds SP ERA

NL #1 SP ERA GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP XERA
M Belisle 0.93 2 9.7 8 1 1 0 7 4 1.55 3.30
B Arroyo 3.29 35 240.7 222 98 88 31 64 184 1.19 3.69
S Kim 3.60 1 5.0 4 2 2 1 0 3 0.80 3.01
A Harang 3.78 35 233.3 240 109 98 28 56 215 1.27 4.09

NL #4 SP ERA GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP XERA
E Milton 5.19 26 152.7 163 94 88 29 42 90 1.34 5.00
E Ramirez 5.26 19 102.7 120 68 60 13 27 69 1.43 4.95

NL #5 SP ERA GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP XERA
C Michalak 6.15 6 26.3 37 20 18 5 13 8 1.90 7.33
B Claussen 6.19 14 77.0 93 56 53 14 28 57 1.57 5.87
J Germano 6.35 1 5.7 8 4 4 1 2 8 1.77 6.80
K Lohse 6.19 19 100.3 123 70 69 13 38 74 1.60 5.56
D Williams 6.62 13 68.0 92 52 50 14 20 32 1.65 6.67
J Mays 9.89 10 43.7 71 54 48 11 26 21 2.22 9.23

Reds SP XERA

NL #1 SP ERA GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP XERA
S Kim 3.60 1 5.0 4 2 2 1 0 3 0.80 3.01
M Belisle 0.93 2 9.7 8 1 1 0 7 4 1.55 3.30

NL #2 SP ERA GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP XERA
B Arroyo 3.29 35 240.7 222 98 88 31 64 184 1.19 3.69
A Harang 3.78 35 233.3 240 109 98 28 56 215 1.27 4.09

NL #3 SP ERA GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP XERA
E Ramirez 5.26 19 102.7 120 68 60 13 27 69 1.43 4.95

NL #4 SP ERA GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP XERA
E Milton 5.19 26 152.7 163 94 88 29 42 90 1.34 5.00
K Lohse 6.19 19 100.3 123 70 69 13 38 74 1.60 5.56

NL #5 SP ERA GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP XERA
B Claussen 6.19 14 77.0 93 56 53 14 28 57 1.57 5.87
D Williams 6.62 13 68.0 92 52 50 14 20 32 1.65 6.67
J Germano 6.35 1 5.7 8 4 4 1 2 8 1.77 6.80
C Michalak 6.15 6 26.3 37 20 18 5 13 8 1.90 7.33
J Mays 9.89 10 43.7 71 54 48 11 26 21 2.22 9.23

[Mario-Rijo]

So basically we have 2 mid-low range #1's or 2 upper tier #2's, 1 #3 (Lizard) and 2 #4's. Or this rotation.

Harang
Arroyo
Ramirez
Milton
Lohse

If EZ is healthy and pitches like he did in the Astros game (his personal gem) and before we got a decent #3. And then Slots everyone else accordingly. If he doesn't bounce back we have either Belisle, Milton or later in the season Bailey. I would really like to find a way to have Milty as our #5. Something like the following would be pretty nice.

Harang
Arroyo
Bailey (May need to be our 4th at best to keep his innings down somewhat).
EZ
Milton (Keeps that knee a little more healthy perhaps).

[Handofdeath]

I have said this before. Complain all you want about Milton. He is overpriced but as a #4/5 starter he's a hell of lot better than a lot of what teams threw out there including some of the Cards pitchers.

[RedsManRick]

Yup. Not that we should be content with what we have, but I think in light of all the recent analysis, we should definitely realize that what we have isn't nearly as bad as we have gotten in the habit of making it out to be.