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Thread: Cincinnati Reds Rumors 1.4.2007

  1. #16
    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Re: Cincinnati Reds Rumors 1.4.2007

    Houston just keeps rolling in the hits. What a great offseason they have had.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

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  3. #17
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Cincinnati Reds Rumors 1.4.2007

    Houston just keeps rolling in the hits. What a great offseason they have had.
    Laugh but they may have the last one, Loretta IMO is a far better option than Conine! He is exactly what we could use in the #2 hole. And I'm sure he will hit there for Houston and score alot of runs. He is one thing they have lacked since Biggio started going down hill. Biggio was a rally killer for them alot last year when he hit up in the order.

    Anything could happen but I would guess he will be more valuable for them than Conine and maybe another handful of Reds this season.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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  4. #18
    Mon chou Choo vaticanplum's Avatar
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    Re: Cincinnati Reds Rumors 1.4.2007

    never mind
    Last edited by vaticanplum; 01-05-2007 at 11:26 PM. Reason: confusing bad Orioles pitchers
    There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.

  5. #19
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    Re: Cincinnati Reds Rumors 1.4.2007

    I have heard in Southern California that the Angels have had discussions about trading for Adam Dunn, and that the price would be Chone Figgins and Joe Saunders. This Rumor is from the Reds message board on the Reds website. Anyone else hear anything or have any thoughts.

  6. #20
    This one's for you Edd Heath's Avatar
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    Re: Cincinnati Reds Rumors 1.4.2007

    Quote Originally Posted by Redmachine2003 View Post
    I have heard in Southern California that the Angels have had discussions about trading for Adam Dunn, and that the price would be Chone Figgins and Joe Saunders. This Rumor is from the Reds message board on the Reds website. Anyone else hear anything or have any thoughts.
    The bolded statement is enough for me to think that was false.
    Some people play baseball. Baseball plays Jay Bruce.

  7. #21
    Member ochre's Avatar
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    Re: Cincinnati Reds Rumors 1.4.2007

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post

    Lopez
    2002: K/9: 6.22; BB/9: 2.84; HR/9: 1.05; FB%: 38.2; HR/FB: 10.1; LOB%: 75.4; FIP: 4.36; ERA: 3.57; IP: 196;
    2003: K/9: 6.31; BB/9: 2.63; HR/9: 1.47; FB%: 35.0; HR/FB: 13.7; LOB%: 67.5; FIP: 5.00; ERA: 5.82; IP: 147;
    2004: K/9: 6.38; BB/9: 2.85; HR/9: 1.11; FB%: 36.2; HR/FB: 11.0; LOB%: 78.2; FIP: 4.37; ERA: 3.59; IP: 170;
    2005: K/9: 5.07; BB/9: 2.71; HR/9: 1.20; FB%: 35.8; HR/FB: 10.9; LOB%: 67.0; FIP: 4.81; ERA: 4.50; IP: 209;
    2006: K/9: 6.38; BB/9: 2.82; HR/9: 1.48; FB%: 35.1; HR/FB: 13.9; LOB%: 66.7; FIP: 4.93; ERA: 5.88; IP: 189;


    Now compare that to Milton and his extreme fly ball tendencies.

    Milton:
    2002: K/9: 6.37; BB/9: 1.58; HR/9: 1.26; FB%: 45.8; HR/FB: 9.6; LOB%: 63.8; FIP: 4.19; ERA: 4.84; IP: 171;
    2003: K/9: 3.71; BB/9: .53; HR/9: 1.06; FB%: 51.2; HR/FB: 7.4; LOB%: 83.3; FIP: 4.08; ERA: 2.65; IP: 17;
    2004: K/9: 7.21; BB/9: 3.36; HR/9: 1.93; FB%: 52.5; HR/FB: 13.5; LOB%: 76.5; FIP: 5.51; ERA: 4.75; IP: 201;
    2005: K/9: 5.94; BB/9: 2.51; HR/9: 1.94; FB%: 46.5; HR/FB: 13.9; LOB%: 64.6; FIP: 5.37; ERA: 6.47; IP: 186;
    2006: K/9: 5.31; BB/9: 2.48; HR/9: 1.71; FB%: 50.3; HR/FB: 11.9; LOB%: 68.5; FIP: 5.35; ERA: 5.19; IP: 153;

    Enter Kyle Lohse:

    Lohse
    2002: K/9: 6.18; BB/9: 3.49; HR/9: 1.30; FB%: 41.7; HR/FB: 11.0; LOB%: 75.1; FIP: 5.01; ERA: 4.23; IP: 180;
    2003: K/9: 5.82; BB/9: 2.01; HR/9: 1.25; FB%: 39.3; HR/FB: 11.1; LOB%: 69.4; FIP: 4.46; ERA: 4.61; IP: 201;
    2004: K/9: 5.15; BB/9: 3.53; HR/9: 1.30; FB%: 36.9; HR/FB: 11.2; LOB%: 68.7; FIP: 5.22; ERA: 5.34; IP: 194;
    2005: K/9: 4.33; BB/9: 2.22; HR/9: 1.11; FB%: 33.7; HR/FB: 10.5; LOB%: 76.8; FIP: 4.73; ERA: 4.18; IP: 178;
    2006: K/9: 6.89; BB/9: 3.13; HR/9: 1.07; FB%: 37.3; HR/FB: 9.9; LOB%: 65.4; FIP: 4.39; ERA: 5.81; IP: 126;
    hmm. Is LOB% considered a luck/unluck factor? Just from an "eyeball" analysis, ERAs for all three of these guys seem to follow a similar "curve", hand-in-hand with their LOB%. I've not noticed that before, but I don't know that I've ever seen this particular set of stats laid out together like this.
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  8. #22
    Member ochre's Avatar
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    Re: Cincinnati Reds Rumors 1.4.2007

    That's probably also supposed to be FB/HR isn't it?
    4009



  9. #23
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    Re: Cincinnati Reds Rumors 1.4.2007

    Quote Originally Posted by Heath View Post
    The bolded statement is enough for me to think that was false.
    Yes and this Thread is called what???

  10. #24
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Cincinnati Reds Rumors 1.4.2007

    Quote Originally Posted by ochre View Post
    That's probably also supposed to be FB/HR isn't it?

    sorry thats HR/FB: 11%..... its a percentage and I left out the %.

  11. #25
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Cincinnati Reds Rumors 1.4.2007

    Quote Originally Posted by ochre View Post
    hmm. Is LOB% considered a luck/unluck factor? Just from an "eyeball" analysis, ERAs for all three of these guys seem to follow a similar "curve", hand-in-hand with their LOB%. I've not noticed that before, but I don't know that I've ever seen this particular set of stats laid out together like this.

    LOB% largely is a luck/unluck factor in the sense that pitchers generally cannot control it (as evidenced by the large fluctuations that can occur from year to year). There are some pitchers that seem to consistently have a higher than normal LOB% so I'd offer the caveat that I don't think this issue is completely understood. It is conceivable that certain pitchers could be better or worse from the stretch which could influence LOB%. However, there really isn't any data that I'm aware of that supports the notion that a high LOB% is a repeatable skill for the average pitcher. As a rule of thumb, I'd be suspicious of a low ERA accompanied by a high LOB% (i.e. '05 J. Washburn or the '06 Zito whose bad peripherals were somewhat masked by a really good LOB%). However, a low LOB% can absolutely be repeatable-if the pitcher simple doesn't have a major league skill set any longer (i.e. '06 D. Graves). Really LOB% needs to be examined in context of a pitcher's peripherals.

    This highlights just how blunt a metric like ERA is for evaluating pitchers past performance or predicting their future performance. Besides the obvious contributions of park and defense there are a lot of other derivatives such as LOB% and HR/FB% that contribute to ERA but are completely out of the control of the pitcher. I think metrics like xFIP which attempt to isolate/correct for these effects, while not perfect, really do represent a significant step in better evaluating pitchers. Anyway that's a long rant of an answer to a straightforward question....



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