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Thread: Failed Reds prospects... Why?

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    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Failed Reds prospects... Why?

    I'm on a thread roll.

    M2 pointed to instruction as a possible reason as to why so many TB prospects seem to fail to reach their potential. Too often blame lies solely at the hands of the GM, and it should. But what is the deeper underlying issue? Is it instruction/development? Is it scouting?

    Why have so many Reds prospects flamed out? Let's pick 5-10 Reds prospects from the last 10 years. This covers all regimes back to the Schott era. Include successes and failures, and compare and contrast them. Is there a consistent failing? Have any of those failings been addressed?
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    Winning the Human Race TheBigLebowski's Avatar
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    Re: Failed Reds prospects... Why?

    Jack Armstrong
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    Dane Sardinha
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    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Failed Reds prospects... Why?

    Brandon Larson (sp?)
    Ryan Wagner (that one's easy, he was rushed).
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    Re: Failed Reds prospects... Why?

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    Brandon Larson (sp?)
    Brandon Larson had no idea what the strike zone was. He took very few walks and enjoyed swinging at garbage outside the strike zone. Larson could get away with that up through AAA, but not in the bigs. Major League pitchers just ate him alive due to his lack of plate discipline and strike zone knowledge.
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    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Failed Reds prospects... Why?

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post
    Brandon Larson had no idea what the strike zone was. He took very few walks and enjoyed swinging at garbage outside the strike zone. Larson could get away with that up through AAA, but not in the bigs. Major League pitchers just ate him alive due to his lack of plate discipline and strike zone knowledge.
    He won his rep with a metal bat and had foot work that made David Klingler look like Rudolf Nureyev.

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    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Failed Reds prospects... Why?

    I do wonder if the gutting of the scounting/development staff under Marge casued a ripple that we're still fealing today. If the scouting staff is picking up lower quality prospects that top out before they reach MLB level it would definatley explain why so many "can't miss" guys flame out early.

    Does the MLB club provide any finacial support to the farm system clubs? If so, and if Marge skimped on this also, it would set off a chain of "tallent drain" as resources are limited. Even down to the quality of training facilities. Again, I'm not sure how that works so it's only guess work.

    Lastly, I think the medical staff plays a role in prospect burn out. I know I've griped about this before but if the medical staff on the big league team can't even figure out when a player is hiding an injury, could it be that the minor league staffs are not adequaly assisting in the development of prospects from a medical standpoint? Or even setting up adequate training regimens that aid in the development of prospects from a phsical standpoint.
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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Failed Reds prospects... Why?

    I see a few possible places to lay blame:

    1.) Evaluation -- they never had the talent to be as good as we expected.
    2.) Effort -- the player simply didn't work hard enough to realize his potential.
    3.) Education -- the player wasn't given the instruction necessary to develop his talent fully.
    4.) Health -- the player, through luck, genetics, or misuse was injured and thus never achieved his potential.

    I'd say we've had problems across the board. Some teams handle some of these areas better than others. The Braves are renown for their focus on #2. They only draft players with the makeup to realize their talent. The As are renown for #1 and #3 -- they draft well and teach well. I'm sure Will Carroll could tell us about #4.

    I don't know the Reds system well enough to really evaluate it, but I think this framework is a good place to start. How did we rate on all of these 20 years ago versus today? Where could we improve? In what areas did certain prospects fail? Obviously there's interactions between all of these, but I think they each represent a distinct area we can address.
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    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Failed Reds prospects... Why?

    You could make a thread like this for any organization. We all know that the Reds haven't developed a really good starting pitcher that has had success on the major league level since Browning. But are the Reds position players developing into good major league players at a rate below most other major league teams? For every Paul Householder there's a Brad Komminsk and for every Brandon Larson there's a Kevin Orrie.
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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Failed Reds prospects... Why?

    The question though Chip, is have we just had bad luck with injuries, are we misevaluating talent, are we failing to teach them, or are we drafting losers who don't have what it takes? You can only correct a problem if you know what the problem is. Drafting all the future Pedro Martinez's doesn't matter if our pitching coaches suck so bad that we can't develop them. And likewise, if all we're drafting are guys with AA talent, no amount of coaching and injury prevention is going to make them major league starters.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  11. #10
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Failed Reds prospects... Why?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    The question though Chip, is have we just had bad luck with injuries, are we misevaluating talent, are we failing to teach them, or are we drafting losers who don't have what it takes? You can only correct a problem if you know what the problem is. Drafting all the future Pedro Martinez's doesn't matter if our pitching coaches suck so bad that we can't develop them. And likewise, if all we're drafting are guys with AA talent, no amount of coaching and injury prevention is going to make them major league starters.

    Could be any one of those 4 or it could be all 4. We can speculate all we want but we don't really know for sure. Obviously the Reds haven't had much luck with starting pitchers but they have done pretty well recently with position players. Off the very top of my head I can name these guys who have been good major league players that were developed in the Reds organization over the last 20 years:

    Adam Dunn
    Austin Kearns
    Jason LaRue
    Aaron Boone
    Barry Larkin
    Paul O'Neill
    Eric Davis

    So that isn't a bad group right there.
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    Member Strikes Out Looking's Avatar
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    Re: Failed Reds prospects... Why?

    I would also add Tom Browning and Scott Williamson (injurys not ability hampered his career) to Chip's list.
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    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Failed Reds prospects... Why?

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    You could make a thread like this for any organization.
    Exactly. I'd like to see some sort of statistics (if they exist) of just how many players within the minor league system ever see any type of success in the majors.
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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Failed Reds prospects... Why?

    Joe Oliver, Aaron Boone, Scott Sullivan
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Failed Reds prospects... Why?

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    He won his rep with a metal bat and had foot work that made David Klingler look like Rudolf Nureyev.
    Question WOY if he had such bad footwork and the metal bat was so important to him why was he able to hit in AAA so well? I never got to see to much of him since his Reds experience was very limmited due to all his injuries.

    I think his biggest problem was the injuries (yes I know he had other issues) and not just the ones at the MLB but the injury his first year in the minors. I believe it was a knee injury that happened sliding that cost him most of a season. Position players coming out of college are on such a tight schedule to get to the majors before getting to old that missing a season puts them behind the 8-ball.

  16. #15
    Your killin' me Smalls! StillFunkyB's Avatar
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    Re: Failed Reds prospects... Why?

    I think there is a lot of luck involved as well.

    Take Mike Piazza for example. They guy was a "pity" pick by/for Lasorda. He then turns out to become the all time HR hitting catcher in MLB history.
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