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Thread: College vs High School ?

  1. #16
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: College vs High School ?

    The Reds arent going to trade Bailey though, so what it does to his "stock" does not matter at all. The Reds would be absolutely stupid to trade him. They wont get back enough in return to make the trade worth it for them.

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  3. #17
    Smells Like Teen Spirit jmcclain19's Avatar
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    Re: College vs High School ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    People are banking on Homer as an unequivocal sure thing; that's a very scary notion.
    I'm just quoting this again because it's worth repeating. Several times. At the top of your voice.

    TINSTAAPP

    I keep reading all the Homer Hype and all I see is "Ty Howington" over and over and over again.

    For fun

    Ty Howington at the before the begining of the 2002 season
    20 years old
    Just finished up AA
    259.0IP, 234H, 113ER, 139BB, 248K, 1.44WHIP, 1.78K/BB, 8.62K/9

    Homer Bailey before the begining of the 2007 season
    20 years old
    Just finished up AA
    254.2IP, 202H, 95ER, 115BB, 290K, 1.24WHIP, 2.52K/BB,
    10.24K/9
    Homer has better basic stats, but let's not forget that history so quickly.

  4. #18
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: College vs High School ?

    jmcclain, there is such a thing. there always has been and always will be. But if we want to make examples, I will point to Verlander, Justin. Every prospect is 1 injury away from being in big trouble. Sure, pitchers are more brittle with their arms.... but plenty of guys dont get hurt while pitching and are just fine. If you were a fan of another team with less bad luck of blowing out arms, and yes, it is bad luck becuase no one can simply cause it to happen to so many, then you would be less likely to yell tinstaapp....but instead, thanks to Howington, Gruler and the likes there of, it seems nice and easy to yell it to the masses.

  5. #19
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: College vs High School ?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    jmcclain, there is such a thing. there always has been and always will be. But if we want to make examples, I will point to Verlander, Justin. Every prospect is 1 injury away from being in big trouble. Sure, pitchers are more brittle with their arms.... but plenty of guys dont get hurt while pitching and are just fine. If you were a fan of another team with less bad luck of blowing out arms, and yes, it is bad luck becuase no one can simply cause it to happen to so many, then you would be less likely to yell tinstaapp....but instead, thanks to Howington, Gruler and the likes there of, it seems nice and easy to yell it to the masses.
    I tend to agree.... all signs point to Bailey most likely being an exceptional starter in the majors...... As it happens, the Reds need those.

    You don't trade that potential when its most likely a half season or less from debuting.....because pitchers get hurt or his trade value might decrease if he experiences his first struggles as a pro..... you only trade that for a deal that is too good to pass up.

    Lets get real....Bailey is probably the top pitching prospect in the country right now.... there are some questions about his command...but nobody has suggested those will prevent him from developing.... he's not overrated and there's nothing in his mechanics to suggest he's more likely to get hurt than any other pitcher....

  6. #20
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: College vs High School ?

    I've concluded over the years that Howington... well, I don't want to say he was a mirage, but "overhyped" is fair, I think. Being lefthanded and a Cincinnati Reds pitching prospect with talent will do that. When I look at the record, particularly the peripherals, Bailey's better than Howington at the current stage and I don't think it's all that close.

    Could he get hurt? Of course. But if TINSTAAPP, then every great pitcher was at one point a non-prospect. If you want an ace and can't or won't spend $15+ million a year to get one, you'll have to get guys with the potential to be one and then roll the dice.
    Not all who wander are lost

  7. #21
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    Re: College vs High School ?

    I'm not worried about Bailey getting hurt. Really I'm not. I'm worried that his command problems will get him killed when he comes to the majors. At 21 I hope he can recover. The Reds haven't exactly been the kind of organization to nursemaid their prospects back from the thousand-yard stare they get from their initial MLB shellings.


    (I know, this is a new regime, blah, blah, blah...I'll believe it when I see it).

    Seriously, though, what separates a guy like Bailey from a prospect like Hirsh? I would really not like to see Bailey endure what happened to Hirsh--it takes a special kind of resilient to bounce back from that kind of drubbing.

    Honestly, I'd love to turn a Bailey into two Haren/Harang level pitchers if I could; gives you more options/flexibility. As it is, if Bailey fails, this organization is sent back to the stone ages. Again.
    Last edited by Falls City Beer; 01-08-2007 at 11:07 PM.

  8. #22
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: College vs High School ?

    I don't know. What did Hirsh endure that was historically bad? He got knocked around some, but most pitchers do upon entering MLB, including the ones who turn out to be good. 44 innings isn't nearly enough to write off a guy with talent or pronounce him permanently shell-shocked. If they're good, they settle down and adjust, and Hirsh appeared to be doing that already -- his September was much better than his August.

    Not saying Bailey will dominate immediately. He won't. But I don't see any reason for believing he's any more likely to get Reith Syndrome than anyone else.
    Not all who wander are lost

  9. #23
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    Re: College vs High School ?

    Bailey's better than Howington at the current stage and I don't think it's all that close.

    Could he get hurt? Of course. But if TINSTAAPP, then every great pitcher was at one point a non-prospect. If you want an ace and can't or won't spend $15+ million a year to get one, you'll have to get guys with the potential to be one and then roll the dice.
    Agree 100%.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  10. #24
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    Re: College vs High School ?

    Quote Originally Posted by IslandRed View Post
    I don't know. What did Hirsh endure that was historically bad? He got knocked around some, but most pitchers do upon entering MLB, including the ones who turn out to be good. 44 innings isn't nearly enough to write off a guy with talent or pronounce him permanently shell-shocked. If they're good, they settle down and adjust, and Hirsh appeared to be doing that already -- his September was much better than his August.

    Not saying Bailey will dominate immediately. He won't. But I don't see any reason for believing he's any more likely to get Reith Syndrome than anyone else.
    We've heard this, though, for every arm the Reds have had over the last decade: "If he's good enough, he'll weather it."

    But really, that's not been the case with the Reds. It seems that with the Reds, the young arm comes up, gets kicked around (Reith, Wagner), and the Reds have no way to help them. That's my problem. Yeah, the Braves, the Astros, the Marlins, the A's, have all successfully gotten pitchers over that first rough patch.

    I'm just not sold that 1) the Reds can help him adjust for the bounceback and 2) Bailey has slam-dunk, can't-miss ability that will transcend the need for very intense on-the-job training. The kid has thrown 68 very good innings at AA. That's it.

    And as far as the Reds having turned the corner on player development: I'll believe it when I see it.

  11. #25
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: College vs High School ?

    Aaron Harang wasnt exactly the best pitcher ever his first 2 season....the second of which spent with the Reds, posting a 5.07 ERA over that stretch...he bounced back just fine with Reds instruction.

  12. #26
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: College vs High School ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    And as far as the Reds having turned the corner on player development: I'll believe it when I see it.
    Well, obviously. : Your reflex judgment on every pitcher in the Reds' system seems to be "trade him before we can screw him up" for whatever we can get as long as it's someone fully developed. That's sort of tough to argue against in terms of the Reds' historic failure to develop pitchers. But that's something we have to change if the Reds are ever going to sustain success, and if we're not even going to try the war is already lost.
    Not all who wander are lost

  13. #27
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    Re: College vs High School ?

    Quote Originally Posted by IslandRed View Post
    Well, obviously. : Your reflex judgment on every pitcher in the Reds' system seems to be "trade him before we can screw him up" for whatever we can get as long as it's someone fully developed. That's sort of tough to argue against in terms of the Reds' historic failure to develop pitchers. But that's something we have to change if the Reds are ever going to sustain success, and if we're not even going to try the war is already lost.
    I guess.

    Though to be fair, I didn't have this "kneejerk" reaction with Harang or Claussen. I thought both would be solid contributors (one was, one wasn't); it's just that the hype surrounding both never reached "can't miss" fever pitch.

    It's obviously not the end of the world if Bailey stays with the team; he certainly could be great. But he could also never in a million years have this degree of tradeability again; in fact, a rough year at Louisville means the Reds are down to exactly three trading chips, who are essentially untradeable (Dunn, Arroyo, Harang).

    Just trying to optimize the return the Reds get at any given point. And I'm not even near ready to consider Bailey a bird in the hand. Not even close. If the Reds could turn Bailey into two close-to-the-majors starters, I'm all over that deal.

  14. #28
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: College vs High School ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Just trying to optimize the return the Reds get at any given point.
    Fair enough.
    Not all who wander are lost


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