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Thread: Wayne Krivsky's "Plan"

  1. #1
    Puffy's Daddy Red Leader's Avatar
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    Wayne Krivsky's "Plan"

    I must admit. I had one foot off the wagon.

    When Wayne Krivsky was hired last year, I was excited. I thought he was a good choice, the best choice of those that they were considering actually. Then came the WMP trade that landed Bronson Arroyo. The Brandon Phillips trade that I was so glad was made. Tony Womack set free early on, another move I was happy about. The momentum was picking up. We stayed in contention. Then, "the trade" happened. Austin Kearns, gone. Felipe Lopez, gone. Ryan Wagner, gone. I thought to myself...what is he doing? What does he know that I don't? How is this going to work? It didn't. We lost Guardado, our closer for a brief time. Welcome Rheal Cormier, Scott Schoeneweis, Ryan Franklin, et al. What is he doing now? We started losing games and falling out of contention. "Well, that didn't work out," was my thinking. "Everybody who takes risks runs the risk of making a bad decision," I thought to myself still drinking the lemonade. The season ended. We finished 80-82, 3.5 games out of 1st place. The offseason comes. I'm excited to see Wayne Krivsky shape the Reds in his mold. "What's he going to do." Alex Gonzalez, signed to be the SS (Ok....). David Weathers resigned (ok, understandable...). Mike Stanton signed (uh, ok....). Jason LaRue traded (good job, a little salary relief, no more 3rd catcher). Chad Moeller signed (so much for that no more 3rd catcher thing and why?). Josh Hamilton traded for in the Rule V (good choice). We still need a RH bat to platoon with Hatteberg. Big hopes. Then, Jeff Conine. My mojo hit the floor. What? Jeff Conine?. All hope was drained. There would be no "big move" this offseason. The "big move" I had hoped for. The F.A. pitcher, the trade for an above average arm to stick in our rotation. I had one foot off of the wagon.

    Then, today, reading through the posts here on Redszone, I had a thought. What if Wayne Krivsky's plan is in motion, but we're just not looking through the clouds to see it? Hey, wait, there is some hope. The Hatteberg / Conine tandem at 1B is only signed though 2007. Joey Votto should be ready to take over full time in 2008, and he has no one blocking him. Brandon Phillips had a pretty darned good year last year. He's still young, and he's got 2B to himself. Alex Gonzalez is a pretty darn good defensive player. Your SS should be a leader by example on the field. He's signed there for 3 years. There's no one in the minors that could challenge him for at least 1/2 of that contract. Edwin Encarnacion had a pretty good 1st year last year. There's no one blocking him either, not really anyone behind him forcing him to move either. Adam Dunn wasn't traded. He's still here. We're going to need him this year for sure. Griffey in CF worries me, but he's still here as well, and if they move him to RF, things start to look better. Ryan Freel and Chris Denorfia in RF (maybe switching to CF). Not bad. A David Ross / Javier Valentin platoon behind the plate isn't the worst thing ever (although I still can't defend the Moeller signing, it is pretty temporary, and there's nothing stopping us from DFA'ing him). As for the pitching. Harang and Arroyo are great. I don't like Milton, Lohse, or any candidates for the 5th spot, except Homer Bailey. Milton and Lohse are likely gone after this year, and Homer will be ready to step in as the #3 in 2008. The bullpen is a little better, if not older. Many of those names will likely change over the next couple years as well. We've got some talent in the minors to replace them.

    The thing that jumped out to me, though, is that we let several F.A.'s go this year. Aurilia, Schoeneweis, Clayton, Franklin, and Jason Johnson to name some. I'm fairly convinced that DanO would have tried to retain some of those players, Krivsky let them walk. As a result, we picked up some draft picks as compensation. Maybe Krivsky had the foresight to let those guys walk knowing that it would be a waste of money to retain them. Maybe he knew that they wouldn't be able to pull a big name in free agency. Maybe his "plan" is to actually acquire talent in the upcoming amateur draft to continue to restock the farm system. Maybe we'll actually draft players in those slots that should have been drafted earlier, but weren't because of signability concerns. Maybe that's where Wayne Krivsky is deciding to spend his money? If it is, I think that's a smart move. We have a lot of high picks in the upcoming draft. If we'd be able to use each of those picks to choose 1st round type talent, our farm system could instantly become one of the better systems in baseball. We have Bailey and Bruce as nearly "sure things" not far away. We have Votto, who should be an above average regular in the near future. We have some bullpen arms and talent at the lower levels. If Krivsky spends the money on the draft and improves the minor league system, rather that frivilously spending money on F.A's to improve the major league team for "next year," we could be in pretty good shape in the near future. Krivsky also has the opportunity to move several of the "older" or "average" players we have on our current roster. Weathers, Cormier, Lohse, Milton, Valentin, Conine, Hatteberg, Freel, Denorfia, Stanton, all those guys will have a market most likely come trade deadline 2007. That could help replenish the farm system as well.

    So, my "hope" for the Reds is back. I'm back on board the Wayne-wagon. I'll give Wayne a pass until the draft to see who he picks. After that, I'll wait to see what he does at the deadline. If we end up taking a real good player with our first pick and then take 4-5th round talent with our next 2 picks early on, I'll know I was misled. If we're out of it and he sells some of our marketable players for a bag of balls, I'll know I've been duped. And then, I'll jump off the wagon and go post on jmmclain's "firejerrynarron.com" and "firewaynekrivsky.com" sites.
    Last edited by Red Leader; 01-05-2007 at 03:30 PM.
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  3. #2
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Wayne Krivsky's "Plan"

    Good post Red Leader. If I can summarize your take on WK's plan:

    (not in any order of importance)
    1.) Don't block prospects with inferior major leaguers signed long term.
    2.) Keep the team as competitive as possible in the short term with low risk veterans filling out the roster.
    3.) Continue to improve the overall talent level of the minor league system.

    To me, that still leaves a number of questions:
    - Is there a next phase which includes significant FA signings?
    - At what point do we transition to that phase?
    - Does Jr. slide over to RF?
    - Where are Arroyo, Harang, and Dunn in 2009?
    - Will the payroll expand as the talent level at the major league level expands?

    I get the feeling that WK can keep us above 70 wins while he restocks the minor leagues. My concern is that he may not be bold enough to convert that prospect core in to a 90+ game winner. His ability to supplement the existing roster with the correct pieces still concerns me.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  4. #3
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    Re: Wayne Krivsky's "Plan"

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Good post Red Leader. If I can summarize your take on WK's plan:

    (not in any order of importance)
    1.) Don't block prospects with inferior major leaguers signed long term.
    2.) Keep the team as competitive as possible in the short term with low risk veterans filling out the roster.
    3.) Continue to improve the overall talent level of the minor league system.

    To me, that still leaves a number of questions:
    - Is there a next phase which includes significant FA signings?
    - At what point do we transition to that phase?
    - Does Jr. slide over to RF?
    - Where are Arroyo, Harang, and Dunn in 2009?
    - Will the payroll expand as the talent level at the major league level expands?

    I get the feeling that WK can keep us above 70 wins while he restocks the minor leagues. My concern is that he may not be bold enough to convert that prospect core in to a 90+ game winner. His ability to supplement the existing roster with the correct pieces still concerns me.
    Another question: does he plan on getting far more aggressive in acquiring high-end minor league talent? How?

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    Re: Wayne Krivsky's "Plan"

    To me, that still leaves a number of questions:
    - Is there a next phase which includes significant FA signings?
    - At what point do we transition to that phase?
    - Does Jr. slide over to RF?
    - Where are Arroyo, Harang, and Dunn in 2009?
    - Will the payroll expand as the talent level at the major league level expands?
    - Nope, seriously why should we have an ounce of faith in this phase ever coming to fruition? We were misled this offseason and it will continue.
    - Never will happen
    - Nope, we all know Narron will not move him.
    - Arroyo is a BoSock, Harang gets a 3-year extension, Dunn is a FA and signs with Houston. Bruce fills in at RF and Freel moves over to LF.
    - This is the biggest question of all. Will Castelinni go with the current flow or will he sell out?

  6. #5
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Wayne Krivsky's "Plan"

    I had this same thought process a little while back.

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=53039

  7. #6
    Puffy's Daddy Red Leader's Avatar
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    Re: Wayne Krivsky's "Plan"

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    To me, that still leaves a number of questions:
    - Is there a next phase which includes significant FA signings?
    - At what point do we transition to that phase?
    - Does Jr. slide over to RF?
    - Where are Arroyo, Harang, and Dunn in 2009?
    - Will the payroll expand as the talent level at the major league level expands?

    I get the feeling that WK can keep us above 70 wins while he restocks the minor leagues. My concern is that he may not be bold enough to convert that prospect core in to a 90+ game winner. His ability to supplement the existing roster with the correct pieces still concerns me.
    I don't know the answer to those questions. We're going to have to wait to find out. I would hope that Griffey moving to RF would be the first answer we see. As far as the significant F.A. signings, not sure that will ever happen, and I think Krivsky know that, to some extent. That's probably why he decided to go this route--there is no "quick fix." As far as Arroyo, Harang, and Dunn, I think that depends on the continued developement of our current prospects. If Bailey takes the 5th spot in this year's rotation and performs well, maybe we'll see Harang or Arroyo traded for a core of good prospects which would further bolster the farm system. If Bruce continues to tear up the minor leagues, maybe we'll see a trade of Adam Dunn for a good package of players. Personally, if it was me, I'd look to sign Harang long term and then trade Arroyo and Dunn down the road. Trading those two could bring us a good haul of talent. Krivsky identifying good prospects to get in return scares me somewhat, though. He's got to win me over on a "larger scale" trade before I'll truly believe he can do it. Last year's "Exhibit A" was a nightmare.
    'When I'm not longer rapping, I want to open up an ice cream parlor and call myself Scoop Dogg.'
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  8. #7
    Member DannyB's Avatar
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    Re: Wayne Krivsky's "Plan"

    I fell thru the floorboard of the Wayne Wagon when Juan came back

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    Re: Wayne Krivsky's "Plan"

    - Does Jr. slide over to RF?
    That's going to tell me everything I need to know. If Junior is taking a goodly share of his spring training innings in center....

    I fell thru the floorboard of the Wayne Wagon when Juan came back
    I can squint crosseyed at his moves and say..."well, Ok, it's not what I would have done, but it's a direction" till I get to the Conine move. That's just wacked. Giving warm bodies up for waiver bait is moving backwords.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

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    Puffy 3:16 Puffy's Avatar
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    Re: Wayne Krivsky's "Plan"

    I've never been on the Wayne bandwagon - was one of the few who didn't want him hired to begin with. And he's done nothing to make me change my mind. Arroyo and phillips notwithstanding.

    If his plan is as you say and if it works I will eat my crow with some hot sauce, but i've said from the beginning the Twins model only works if you have a Johan Santana at the front end (before that they won because they were in a putrid division and were never a threat in the playoffs - just a tuneup for whoever was lucky enough to face them in round one) and a joe nathan at the back end.
    "I came here to kick ass and chew bubble gum... and I'm all out of bubble gum."
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  11. #10
    You're soaking in it! MartyFan's Avatar
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    Re: Wayne Krivsky's "Plan"

    I'm still drinking the KoolAide...I like SPECIAL K but I do question some of the moves, THE TRADE not being one of them.
    "Sometimes, it's not the sexiest moves that put you over the top," Krivsky said. "It's a series of transactions that help you get there."

  12. #11
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Wayne Krivsky's "Plan"

    I'd like to think Wayne's goal is to put together a younger, more dynamic team. Yet to do that the Reds need a lot more young talent than what they've got on hand. If the Reds had spent this offseason bringing in young players rather than geezers, I'd be able to buy into the notion that a sensible rebuild is underway.

    Unfortunately, I don't see the new twentysomethings who'd justify that sort of outlook.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  13. #12
    part of BBN jmac's Avatar
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    Re: Wayne Krivsky's "Plan"

    Quote Originally Posted by Puffy View Post
    but i've said from the beginning the Twins model only works if you have a Johan Santana at the front end (before that they won because they were in a putrid division and were never a threat in the playoffs - just a tuneup for whoever was lucky enough to face them in round one) and a joe nathan at the back end.
    When people talk of the Twins and A's style of ball....as you said , they have had the pitching. Just think of some of the guys the A's have run out there over the last few years.....hudson..zito..mulder...lilly..harden..ha ran..blanton etc.
    Maybe not all #1's yet each one gave you a legitimate chance to win.The reds definitely arent there this year but who knows about the wood's and cueto's of the world.
    The bullpen situation is the one that really bothers me about this current team. Last season we needed a closer so bad we went out and got one but now we are relying on a guy who we didnt have enough confidence in "last year" as a closer. So it appears the problem is still there.
    Maybe WK is banking on a youngster or two excelling in ST.

    One more point on the pitching aspect:
    I think the reds would be dangerous in a short series with Harang and BA.
    It's getting enough wins from the 3-5 that will tell the tale.

  14. #13
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Wayne Krivsky's "Plan"

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I'd like to think Wayne's goal is to put together a younger, more dynamic team. Yet to do that the Reds need a lot more young talent than what they've got on hand. If the Reds had spent this offseason bringing in young players rather than geezers, I'd be able to buy into the notion that a sensible rebuild is underway.

    Unfortunately, I don't see the new twentysomethings who'd justify that sort of outlook.
    I think Reds Leader makes an interesting point that by collecting FA's like mad gives us two things. Short term use on the playing field (the quality of that play can be debated) along with draft picks for the long term.

    It's the middle ground between burn it down and spend aditional $80,000,000 on payroll.

    How much we can get in trade for the Mike Stanton's of the team is debatable. We could probably get a prospect for him assuming he's not injured. The quality of that prospect is also debatable.
    Last edited by Ltlabner; 01-05-2007 at 07:00 PM.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

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    Re: Wayne Krivsky's "Plan"

    I have a mole in the Reds office, here was a plan on Wayne's white board last summer:

    Step 1. Collect Underpants
    Step 2. ????????
    Step 3. World Series.......and then total world domination

  16. #15
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Wayne Krivsky's "Plan"

    His plan is to:

    improve the defense

    improve the pitching

    try to pick up value on the cheap ( ie Phillips, Ross, Gill, Lohse )

    don't trade the stud prospects

    fill in the holes on the current roster with vets signed to short contracts

    I am ok with this plan. I don't agree with all the moves ( castro? ) but I bet even the best GM in history can't find someone who agrees with every move he makes.
    .


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