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Thread: Wayne Krivsky's "Plan"

  1. #31
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Wayne Krivsky's "Plan"

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    The way things are currently, I get the feeling that the Reds are merely planning to tread water in 2006 capitalizing on a week division to give the average fan the impression that they are competitive; enough to not suffer a huge attendance drop while position themselves to really compete in 2008. Whether this will work or not is anybody's guess but the Reds certainly will have to acquire some significant pieces between now and 2008 if that is to become a reality.
    It seems like that's the plan every year: tread water and then maybe something good will happen the next season. It's got a glaring fatal flaw in it though, namely that if you don't add meaningful talent you won't be getting better now or in the future.

    So I don't think it's much of a guess as to whether this will work. It won't.
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  3. #32
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Wayne Krivsky's "Plan"

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    It seems like that's the plan every year: tread water and then maybe something good will happen the next season. It's got a glaring fatal flaw in it though, namely that if you don't add meaningful talent you won't be getting better now or in the future.

    So I don't think it's much of a guess as to whether this will work. It won't.
    With the free agent market for pitching being what it is and being stuck with a fragile Griffey, who makes a trade of Freel for pitching risky, I'm just not sure what the Reds really could do, aside from burning the whole thing down or trading the few good prospects they have to try and complete next year. I really think the Reds should have picked up another OF on the FA market and packaged Freel with some prospects to try and land a starter. In the end I think this is where not having Kearns really hurts the Reds. Whether they'll be able to compete in 2008 really is going to hinge on whether Bailey, Votto, & Bruce are able to contribute, which is obviously a longshot.
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  4. #33
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Wayne Krivsky's "Plan"

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    With the free agent market for pitching being what it is and being stuck with a fragile Griffey, who makes a trade of Freel for pitching risky, I'm just not sure what the Reds really could do, aside from burning the whole thing down or trading the few good prospects they have to try and complete next year. I really think the Reds should have picked up another OF on the FA market and packaged Freel with some prospects to try and land a starter. In the end I think this is where not having Kearns really hurts the Reds. Whether they'll be able to compete in 2008 really is going to hinge on whether Bailey, Votto, & Bruce are able to contribute, which is obviously a longshot.
    I agree with you about putting Freel on the block, why it hurts not having Kearns (and Lopez) to deal at this moment and the enormity of the 2008 longshot.

    I'm surprised the team didn't shop Jr. Now that he's got the broken wrist, he's not going anywhere. I doubt they'll treat Weathers like a sign and trade, but that's what I'd recommend. Perhaps Hatteberg or Ross would have had a market.

    We could spin maybes all day. My general point though is theory doesn't matter. They haven't found compelling players for now or compelling youngsters for later. I could get behind either of those things. I could even get behind a mix of both. I just can't get behind neither.

    I agree they're in tough spot, but I'm fresh out of sympathy for it. I'd rather watch them strive and fail than continue this numbing slide into obliviion.
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  5. #34
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    Re: Wayne Krivsky's "Plan"

    WayneK's plan was about winning now and if I am not mistaking his belief that the Reds could win now was one of the reasons that Cast liked him so much. Changing strategy from DanO's plan (to win long-term by building a farm) was short-sighted and has doomed this team for many more years of losing. I'm not saying that DanO was a good GM because he wasn't but I did like the strategy of building the farm. JimBo made dumb trades to try and win when we couldn't instead of breaking the team down and going for it long-term. DanO wouldn't pull the trigger on a tear down and that has hurt us long-term. WayneK actually deserves credit for believing that this team could "win now." He was right but then doomed us with a trade that hurt us last year and is continuing to do so this offseason because we don't have any depth anywhere. (except old relievers)

    I personally hope that if we don't win this year or at least stay in the race all season we crash quickly and leave no doubt about what needs to be done. I am frankly tired of losing and I believe that trying to be competitive instead of trying to win the world series is killing us. Build a winner not a "competitive" team!
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  6. #35
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Re: Wayne Krivsky's "Plan"

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    It's also the same infertile middle ground the Reds have been plowing for the past six years.



    If that's his plan, then he's ignoring steps two and three. Dependent on whether Jr. plays CF this year, he might be ignoring a big part of step one as well. Mostly what I see is not trading prospects and filling holes with short-term veterans. If that's all it amounts to, then it's doomed to failure. The parts of any plans you might want to dream up that aren't getting attention are the parts that make the team significantly better or that bring in compelling young players -- aka the meaningful stuff.

    RL, I don't really buy into the notion that veterans today = kids tomorrow. We've been hearing that for years and I don't see the kids. If Krivsky wants young talent then he could be trading for it today with the vets he's already got.
    1.

    Pitching staff one year ago ( from memory )-
    Harang
    Milton
    Dave Williams
    Claussen
    Paul Wilson

    Weathers
    Rick White
    Hammond
    Coffey
    Belisle

    Pitching staff now -
    Harang
    Arroyo
    Lohse
    Milton
    EZ / Belisle / Bailey waiting in the wings

    Weathers
    Stanton
    Bray
    Majik
    Coffey
    Cormier

    This 2007 staff is MUCH better than the 2006 version

    2. How many every day major leagurers do you think are hanging around in AAA or pitching long relief? To say Krisky is failing at trying to find value on the cheap is an odd opinion.
    .

  7. #36
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Wayne Krivsky's "Plan"

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    1.

    Pitching staff one year ago ( from memory )-
    Harang
    Milton
    Dave Williams
    Claussen
    Paul Wilson

    Weathers
    Rick White
    Hammond
    Coffey
    Belisle

    Pitching staff now -
    Harang
    Arroyo
    Lohse
    Milton
    EZ / Belisle / Bailey waiting in the wings

    Weathers
    Stanton
    Bray
    Majik
    Coffey
    Cormier

    This 2007 staff is MUCH better than the 2006 version

    2. How many every day major leagurers do you think are hanging around in AAA or pitching long relief? To say Krisky is failing at trying to find value on the cheap is an odd opinion.
    1. The Reds pitching other than Arroyo really isn't much better. Bailey, Ramirez and Belisle were already here and Wk didn't do anything to get them. Lohse is going to be a very expensive guy who really has no track record of success. As for the pen, WK has overpaid in $ or talent or both for Cormier, Stanton, Weathers, Majik and Bray. Is the pitching improved? Yes. At the cost should it be improved? Yes, it should be improved a lot more than it actually is IMO.


    2. There are a number of pitchers in baseball who I think are undervalued languishing in long relief or mop-up type duty (similar to the Arroyo situation last spring) who would be better options than the Lohse, Milton, Ramirez contingent (though I'm ok giving Ramirez another shot and well Milton is basically already paid for). Without looking at all the rosters I can name Wil Ledezma, Kevin Correia, Ryan Madson, Aaron Heilman, Carlos Marmol and whoever the odd man out in Fla is.

    Similarly there are some bullpen candidates in the same boat who IMO were preferable to signing Weathers and hanging on to Cormier. Some names include Geoff Geary, Brian Bruney, Mike Wuertz, Frank Francisco, Manny DelCarmen and the Reds own Brad Salmon, Jon Coutlangus, Brian Shackelford, Calvin Medlock and David Shafer.

    As for the RH 1B, WK passed on Josh Phelps, JR House, Jayson Werth and the more expensive options like Aubrey Huff and Craig Wilson. Chris Shelton is a guy who could be available in trade. All whom I would prefer to Conine.

    No one is asking for the Reds to Trade Freel for Brandon Webb or Carlos Zambrano or to dump Milton and get Delmon Young back. But department store prices for well used stuff that you should be getting at goodwill not only is no more thrifty than spending big money on the questionable starting pitchers in this year's market, but it still leaves you with an unsettled situation even if these guys do ok temporarily for a year or so.
    Last edited by mth123; 01-06-2007 at 09:17 PM.

  8. #37
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Re: Wayne Krivsky's "Plan"

    mth -

    1. i know you wish Krisky had gone after some of these pitchers rather than
    Stanton/Weathers/etc but the 2007 staff is clearly better than the staff Krisky inherited.

    2. Honestly relief pitching and finding a 5th starter who can keep an ERA under 5.00 is often a crapshoot.

    Geoff Geary, Brian Bruney, Mike Wuertz, Frank Francisco, Manny DelCarmen , Brad Salmon, Jon Coutlangus, Brain Shackelford, Calvin Medlock, David Shafer,
    Wil Ledezma, Kevin Correia, Ryan Madson, Aaron Heilman, Carlos Marmol,
    EZ, Belsile,Stanton,Weathers,Cormier,etc,etc,etc are all candidates for someone's 5th starter slot or middle relief.

    3. The fact that Wayne didn't acquire Bailey is irrelevant in deciding whether or not the current Reds pitching staff is an improvement over the one Wayne inherited

    4. I predict Lohse will have a very good year then get a big free agent contract ( hopefully not from the Reds ). The guy will magically get his act together then cash in for $30M plus. He will be worth the $6M the Reds will pay him this year. I really don't understand the hatred for Lohse on Redszone.
    He will likely only be here for 2007.

    5. " As for the RH 1B, WK passed on Josh Phelps, JR House, Jayson Werth and the more expensive options like Aubrey Huff and Craig Wilson. Chris Shelton is a guy who could be available in trade. All whom I would prefer to Conine. "

    Votto is 1/2 season or less away.
    I actually prefer Conine to all of your choices other than Wilson ( and Wilson who is a free agent has shown no interest in coming to the Reds or accepting a part time role ).

    6. " No one is asking for the Reds to Trade Freel for Brandon Webb or Carlos Zambrano or to dump Milton and get Delmon Young back. But department store prices for well used stuff that you should be getting at goodwill not only is no more thrifty than spending big money on the questionable starting pitchers in this year's market, but it still leaves you with an unsettled situation even if these guys do ok temporarily for a year or so."

    Actually I think Wayne did an ok job shopping in the Sax 5th Ave style free agent market this year. All the pitchers got 2 year deals and AG got 3 years.
    Beats the you know what out of the Zito/Soriano/Suppan/etc contracts.

    The only contracts i saw and said 'man i wish the Reds had got him' were Justin Speier and Jason Schmidt. Again, these guys were free to sign with any team and didn't want to play for the Reds.
    .

  9. #38
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Wayne Krivsky's "Plan"

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    mth -

    1. i know you wish Krisky had gone after some of these pitchers rather than
    Stanton/Weathers/etc but the 2007 staff is clearly better than the staff Krisky inherited.

    2. Honestly relief pitching and finding a 5th starter who can keep an ERA under 5.00 is often a crapshoot.

    Geoff Geary, Brian Bruney, Mike Wuertz, Frank Francisco, Manny DelCarmen , Brad Salmon, Jon Coutlangus, Brain Shackelford, Calvin Medlock, David Shafer,
    Wil Ledezma, Kevin Correia, Ryan Madson, Aaron Heilman, Carlos Marmol,
    EZ, Belsile,Stanton,Weathers,Cormier,etc,etc,etc are all candidates for someone's 5th starter slot or middle relief.

    3. The fact that Wayne didn't acquire Bailey is irrelevant in deciding whether or not the current Reds pitching staff is an improvement over the one Wayne inherited

    4. I predict Lohse will have a very good year then get a big free agent contract ( hopefully not from the Reds ). The guy will magically get his act together then cash in for $30M plus. He will be worth the $6M the Reds will pay him this year. I really don't understand the hatred for Lohse on Redszone.
    He will likely only be here for 2007.

    5. " As for the RH 1B, WK passed on Josh Phelps, JR House, Jayson Werth and the more expensive options like Aubrey Huff and Craig Wilson. Chris Shelton is a guy who could be available in trade. All whom I would prefer to Conine. "

    Votto is 1/2 season or less away.
    I actually prefer Conine to all of your choices other than Wilson ( and Wilson who is a free agent has shown no interest in coming to the Reds or accepting a part time role ).

    6. " No one is asking for the Reds to Trade Freel for Brandon Webb or Carlos Zambrano or to dump Milton and get Delmon Young back. But department store prices for well used stuff that you should be getting at goodwill not only is no more thrifty than spending big money on the questionable starting pitchers in this year's market, but it still leaves you with an unsettled situation even if these guys do ok temporarily for a year or so."

    Actually I think Wayne did an ok job shopping in the Sax 5th Ave style free agent market this year. All the pitchers got 2 year deals and AG got 3 years.
    Beats the you know what out of the Zito/Soriano/Suppan/etc contracts.

    The only contracts i saw and said 'man i wish the Reds had got him' were Justin Speier and Jason Schmidt. Again, these guys were free to sign with any team and didn't want to play for the Reds.
    1. Again the 2007 staff is better, but that is like saying driving an unreliable junker is better than walking. While its true, it isn't an endorsement of the plan if new car prices were paid for that junker.

    2. But WK isn't going after guys who could be acquired and turn into answers for below market value for multiple years. He's content with Lohse, Weathers, Cormier, and Stanton who are overpriced, likely to suck, and only temporary band aids anyway. I thought this thread was an evaluation of Wayne's plan. Seems to me that the plan to use Lohse is no answer even if he pitches well.

    3. Again, this is about Wayne's plan. The fact that WK didn't acquire Bailey is very much pertinent to evaluating WK's plan. He gets no credit for Bailey.

    4. The hatred for Lohse is due to the fact that he has been a major league starter for 5 years and generally has not been very good. He's a guy to take a flyer on with a minor league contract or signed for the minimum. Paying him $6 Million with his track record while telling the fan base that nothing will be done to address the rotation because the cost is too high doesn't sit well.

    5. I agree that Votto is the answer long term. But he will need a RH partner for at least the first couple years and Conine doesn't hit LH any better than Hatteberg. Take a shot with a young guy who could be an asset. If he fails you still have Votto and Hat and will be no worse off than with Conine and you'd save money.

    6. He has wasted $25 Million on Junk.
    Last edited by mth123; 01-06-2007 at 10:00 PM.

  10. #39
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    Re: Wayne Krivsky's "Plan"

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    1. Again the 2007 staff is better, but that is like saying driving an unrreliable junker is better than walking. While its true, it isn't an endorsement of the plan if new car prices were paid for that junker.

    2. But WK isn't going after guys who could be acquired and turn into answers for below market value for multiple years. He's content with Lohse, Weathers, Cormier, and Stanton who are overpriced, likely to suck, and only temporary band aids anyway. I thought this thread was an evaluation of Wayne's plan. Seems to me that the plan to use Lohse is no answer even if he pitches well.

    3. Again, this is about Wayne's plan. The fact that WK didn't acquire Bailey is very much pertinent to evaluating WK's plan. He gets no credit for Bailey.

    4. The hatred for Lohse is due to the fact that he has been a major league starter for 5 years and generally has not been very good. He's a guy to take a flyer on with a minor league contract or siged for the minimum. Paying him $6 Million with his track record while telling the fan base that nothing will be done to address the rotation doesn't sit well.

    Good responses. Don't you love the bait and switch?

  11. #40
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    Re: Wayne Krivsky's "Plan"

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    As for the pen, WK has overpaid in $ or talent or both for Cormier, Stanton, Weathers, Majik and Bray. Is the pitching improved? Yes. At the cost should it be improved? Yes, it should be improved a lot more than it actually is IMO.
    Very good point. I'm thinking if WK had a mulligan he would use it on "The Trade"

    Also, a team full of overpaid, old timers as stop gaps has been the Pittsburg Pirates/Kansas City Royals plan of recent years and you see where that gets you.
    Last edited by Newman4; 01-06-2007 at 10:10 PM.
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  12. #41
    GOREDSGO32
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    Re: Wayne Krivsky's "Plan"

    "The Trade" has been beaten to death - and so far, and possibly for any possible scenerio, it looks like we've been screwed plain and simple. Kearns and Lopez, if they had to be traded, could have been traded for more by any team I think - and even right now, if they stayed in the offseason right now - they could have gotten us a very solid starter or two. It's just bad all around.

    But this post breaks it down simply: Krivsky is donig a good job of changing the formula of this team, that has been like this for YEARS. Terrible pitching, league leaders in bad fundamentals: strikeouts, batting average, and worst fielding percentage. Say what you want - we definately could have gotten more for those two players, Kearns and Lopez, and probably wouldn't have fared worse with them in the lineup. But not having them to strikeout and have horrible errors is a way of changing the chemistry of the team. Old Royce Clayton added nothing to the team, he is slow and probably not even as good as fielder as Lopez in his old age with range and stuff, but the fact that he is a known veteran great infielder over his career showed that Krivsky is trying to change the makeup of this team.

    Kearns/Lopez are players, plain and simple. So are Bray/Majeski. They are all just PLAYERS. At the end of this coming year, or the next coming year, one or both these guys, Kearns/Lopez would have been up for free agency and gone anyway. That's not the end of the world that they are gone - sure we could have got SOMETHING better I'm sure, but any trade would be mostly short term players. The bigger fish to fry is drafting talent, building up the minor leagues well, getting plenty of picks and young talent to make this a consistent team. It's been a horrible trade so far, but it does accomplish one thing: changing the makeup of the team for the long run. A small market team like the Reds simply CAN NOT be a winner and consistent when things like batting average, strikeouts, and fielding percentage are all among the worst in baseball - not to mention ERA in years past. The strategy has to change, and I applaud Krivsky for doing that, even if the trade was terrible, I think he is doing that.

  13. #42
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Wayne Krivsky's "Plan"

    Quote Originally Posted by GOREDSGO32 View Post
    "The Trade" has been beaten to death - and so far, and possibly for any possible scenerio, it looks like we've been screwed plain and simple. Kearns and Lopez, if they had to be traded, could have been traded for more by any team I think - and even right now, if they stayed in the offseason right now - they could have gotten us a very solid starter or two. It's just bad all around.
    I really don't want to get into "the trade v.765" discussions, but since the cost of starting pitching (and pitching in general) has continued to rise the concept that we could could trade Lopez and Kearns for two "solid" starters if we had only waited is laughable.

    I'm thinking you'd have to give up both of them and perhaps a quality prospect to convience any team right now to trade one true stud starter, let alone two. And what team out there has so many stud starters laying around that they'd be willing to trade one?

    So we could trade them for a less than stud starter who *projects* to be good one day (read: prospect). And if we traded the both of them for a "could be good one day" pitcher (or even two "could be good one day" pitchers) don't see that as any different whatsoever than trading them for 2 middle relievers and misc. component pieces.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  14. #43
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    Re: Wayne Krivsky's "Plan"

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    I'm thinking you'd have to give up both of them and perhaps a quality prospect to convience any team right now to trade one true stud starter, let alone two.
    I agree you couldn't get a "stud" starter for Lopez/Kearns, but I don't think a #3 type is out of the question.
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  15. #44
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    Re: Wayne Krivsky's "Plan"

    Quote Originally Posted by Newman4 View Post
    I agree you couldn't get a "stud" starter for Lopez/Kearns, but I don't think a #3 type is out of the question.
    A typical #3 pitcher has a ERA in the 4's. (see Redsmanricks research in the thread in ORG).

    Would this board melt down if we traded two position players for 1 starting pitcher with an ERA in the 4's? That's an honest question, I don't know the answer (although, it certinaly did over trading those same two position players for two reliefe pitchers and 3 misc. parts.).

    Here's a blurb from RMR's research...

    - 4 teams had a sub-3.00 ERA out of their #1 starter (FLA, HOU, LAA, MIN)
    - 2 teams had a sub-3.50 ERA out of their #2 starter (FLA, HOU)
    - 4 teams had sub-4.00 ERA out of their #3 starter (DET, FLA, LAA)
    - 3 teams had a sub-4.50 ERA out of their #4 starter (DET, LAA, SD)
    - 1 team had a sub-5.00 ERA out of their #5 starter (DET)
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

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    Re: Wayne Krivsky's "Plan"

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    Would this board melt down if we traded two position players for 1 starting pitcher with an ERA in the 4's? That's an honest question, I don't know the answer (although, it certinaly did over trading those same two position players for two reliefe pitchers and 3 misc. parts.)
    Some on the board would have the melt down in question regardless if Kearns was traded because of the hometown factor and you're probably right about fit being thrown over a trade of both for a #3. But, I think at this point most people would be much more happy with the results of the trade.
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