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Thread: The 37 year old ballplayer

  1. #16
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: The 37 year old ballplayer

    Suppose for a moment that Jr. bucks the odds. He has a healthy 2007 AND 2008. He puts on a power display, 40-45 HR's both years. That would give him close to 650 career HR's Would you pick up his 2009 option?

    Remember, baseball isn't a vacuum. IF Jr. were to accomplish this, it puts him in spitting distance of 700 HR's There is some good long term PR to be gained from letting him finish his career in red. Similar but different to letting Larkin retire a Red. The media begins to follow him around, and even though Jr.'s rep with the press is rocky, it ain't Bonds' rocky.

    Now of course I fully expect a half a dozen posts telling me Jr. won't be healthy for the next two years. Please remember I did say "Suppose."
    Suck it up cupcake.

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  3. #17
    Tired of talk. Win! Joseph's Avatar
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    Re: The 37 year old ballplayer

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Quite the gamble, in MLB history 20,740 players have had at 300 PA's or more in a season, only 611 of them were 37 or older. That's .029%, the house wins most of those bets.
    Looks like the Freel vs Denorfia debate won't rage on too long.

    Championships for MY teams in my lifetime:
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  4. #18
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: The 37 year old ballplayer

    Here's an interesting look ...
    Code:
    Hall of Fame Center Fielders
    Career vs. Age 37 Season
    
                Career     Age 37                       Age 37
    Player       OPS+    Season OPS+   % Difference   Season PA
    
    Ashburn      111        DNP            DNP           DNP
    Averill      133        102        23.31% lower      425
    Cobb         167        125        25.15% lower      726
    Combs        126        DNP            DNP           DNP
    DiMaggio     155        DNP            DNP           DNP
    Duffy        122        148        21.31% higher      59
    Hamilton     141        DNP            DNP           DNP
    Mantle       172        DNP            DNP           DNP
    Mays         156        157         0.60% higher     573
    Puckett      124        DNP            DNP           DNP
    Roush*       126        DNP            DNP           DNP
    Snider       140         75        46.43% lower      189
    Speaker      158        166         5.06% higher     518
    Waner**       99        DNP            DNP           DNP
    Wilson       144        DNP            DNP           DNP
    
    Griffey      141        ???            ???           ???
    
    * Edd Roush had 400 PAs in his age 38 season.
    ** Lloyd Waner had 33 PAs in his age 38 season and 20 PAs in his age 39 season.
    Of 15 Hall of Fame center fielders, nine didn't even play during their age 37 season, and seven of them were already retired. Of the six that did play, only Willie Mays and Tris Speaker had seasons that compared favorably with the rest of their respective careers. Ty Cobb had a very fine season, but it was well below his earlier established level of play. Earl Averill was an average hitter at age 38, Duke Snider was hanging on during the final season of his career, and Hugh Duffy had only 59 plate appearances.
    Barry Larkin - HOF, 2012

    Put an end to the Lost Decade.

  5. #19
    Score Early, Score Often gonelong's Avatar
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    Re: The 37 year old ballplayer

    With the availability of trainers, nutrition, supplements, etc. I don't know that 37 now is anything like 37 a few decades back.

    In Jr's case his legs are 55 so that probably doesn't apply to him at this stage.

    GL

  6. #20
    For a Level Playing Field RedFanAlways1966's Avatar
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    Re: The 37 year old ballplayer

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792
    Of 15 Hall of Fame center fielders, nine didn't even play during their age 37 season, and seven of them were already retired. Of the six that did play, only Willie Mays and Tris Speaker had seasons that compared favorably with the rest of their respective careers. Ty Cobb had a very fine season, but it was well below his earlier established level of play. Earl Averill was an average hitter at age 38, Duke Snider was hanging on during the final season of his career, and Hugh Duffy had only 59 plate appearances.
    I remember stating this same sort of thing back when Barry Larkin was about 37 and was angry b/c the REDS were looking to replace him at SS (or make him a not-full-time player). Strange how these things tend to come back from time to time.
    Small market fan... always hoping, but never expecting.

  7. #21
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: The 37 year old ballplayer

    Quote Originally Posted by gonelong View Post
    With the availability of trainers, nutrition, supplements, etc. I don't know that 37 now is anything like 37 a few decades back.

    In Jr's case his legs are 55 so that probably doesn't apply to him at this stage.

    GL
    True, 15% of the 611 37 year old players have played since the strike, 47% of them had an above average RCAP

    Check out #54 and #58 for the RCAP
    Code:
    AT BATS                       YEAR     AB       BPA      OBA      SLG      AGE     RCAP    
    1    Paul Molitor             1996      660     .493     .390     .468       39        3   
    2    Craig Biggio             2004      633     .505     .337     .469       38       -4   
    3    Steve Finley             2004      628     .514     .333     .490       39        6   
    4    Craig Biggio             2005      590     .510     .325     .468       39       11   
    5    Luis Gonzalez            2006      586     .481     .352     .444       38      -14   
    6    Omar Vizquel             2006      579     .450     .361     .389       39        7   
    7    Otis Nixon               1997      576     .437     .337     .318       38      -11   
    8    Omar Vizquel             2005      568     .418     .341     .350       38        0   
    9    Eddie Murray             1996      566     .443     .327     .417       40      -30   
    10   Rafael Palmeiro          2003      561     .564     .359     .508       38       11   
    11   Rafael Palmeiro          2004      550     .488     .359     .436       39       -2   
    12   Craig Biggio             2006      548     .442     .306     .422       40      -13   
    13   Rickey Henderson         1998      542     .537     .376     .347       39       10   
    14   Paul Molitor             1997      538     .467     .351     .435       40        0   
    15   Tony Phillips            1997      534     .476     .392     .391       38        6   
    16   Paul Molitor             1995      525     .487     .350     .423       38       -8   
    17   Fred McGriff             2002      523     .533     .353     .505       38        8   
    18   Jeff Conine              2004      521     .451     .340     .432       38      -14   
    19   Steve Finley             2003      516     .553     .363     .500       38       14   
    20   Brett Butler             1995      513     .476     .377     .376       38       15   
    21   Paul O'Neill             2001      510     .503     .330     .459       38       -4   
    22   Barry Larkin             2002      507     .408     .305     .367       38      -10   
    T23  Paul Molitor             1998      502     .405     .335     .382       41      -24   
    T23  Gary Gaetti              1997      502     .416     .305     .404       38      -22   
    25   Wade Boggs               1996      501     .438     .389     .389       38        3   
    26   Edgar Martinez           2003      497     .537     .406     .489       40       26   
    27   Andres Galarraga         2000      494     .540     .369     .526       39        1   
    28   Jeff Conine              2006      489     .422     .325     .399       40      -16   
    29   Edgar Martinez           2004      486     .424     .342     .385       41      -15   
    30   Cal Ripken               2001      477     .356     .276     .361       40      -17   
    31   Chili Davis              1999      476     .502     .366     .445       39        2   
    32   Edgar Martinez           2001      470     .601     .423     .543       38       47   
    33   Kenny Lofton             2006      469     .475     .360     .403       39        2   
    34   Frank Thomas             2006      466     .587     .381     .545       38       18   
    35   Tony Gwynn               1998      461     .505     .364     .501       38       17   
    36   Harold Baines            1997      452     .488     .375     .458       38       10   
    37   Otis Nixon               1998      448     .435     .361     .344       39       -8   
    38   Rickey Henderson         1999      438     .585     .423     .466       40       24   
    39   Eddie Murray             1995      436     .533     .375     .516       39       17   
    40   Wade Boggs               1998      435     .431     .348     .400       40        1   
    41   Gary Gaetti              1998      434     .521     .356     .495       39        9   
    T42  Harold Baines            1999      430     .547     .387     .533       40       12   
    T42  Julio Franco             1997      430     .431     .369     .360       38      -12   
    44   Moises Alou              2005      427     .557     .400     .518       38       26   
    45   Steve Finley             2006      426     .454     .320     .394       41       -5   
    46   Rickey Henderson         2000      420     .453     .368     .305       41      -13   
    47   Tony Gwynn               1999      411     .487     .381     .477       39        6   
    48   Jeff Kent                2006      407     .522     .385     .477       38       19   
    T49  Tony Phillips            1999      406     .523     .362     .433       40        7   
    T49  Steve Finley             2005      406     .408     .271     .374       40      -13   
    51   Rickey Henderson         1997      403     .528     .400     .342       38        8   
    52   Benito Santiago          2003      401     .431     .329     .424       38        2   
    53   Andres Galarraga         2001      399     .476     .326     .459       40       -7   
    T54  Barry Bonds              2003      390     .818     .529     .749       38      112   
    T54  Devon White              2001      390     .529     .343     .459       38       13   
    56   Joe Carter               1998      388     .476     .304     .461       38       -8   
    57   Rickey Henderson         2001      379     .488     .366     .351       42      -15   
    58   Barry Bonds              2004      373     .882     .609     .812       39      147   
    59   Rafael Palmeiro          2005      369     .481     .339     .447       40        2   
    T60  Kenny Lofton             2005      367     .509     .392     .420       38       15   
    T60  Barry Bonds              2006      367     .647     .454     .545       41       37   
    62   Ken Caminiti             2001      356     .450     .312     .407       38      -10   
    63   Wade Boggs               1997      353     .454     .373     .397       39       13   
    64   Tim Wallach              1996      352     .404     .297     .369       38      -15   
    T65  Matt Stairs              2006      348     .463     .328     .420       38      -18   
    T65  Todd Zeile               2004      348     .395     .319     .356       38      -28   
    67   Barry Larkin             2004      346     .432     .352     .419       40        7   
    68   Moises Alou              2006      345     .561     .352     .571       39       13   
    T69  B.J. Surhoff             2004      343     .448     .365     .420       39        2   
    T69  Brett Butler             1997      343     .409     .363     .324       40       -2   
    71   Randy Velarde            2001      342     .475     .356     .424       38        7   
    72   Julio Franco             2002      338     .420     .357     .382       43      -11   
    73   Jeff Conine              2005      335     .435     .374     .403       39       -4   
    74   Cal Ripken               1999      332     .556     .368     .584       38       22   
    75   Edgar Martinez           2002      328     .555     .403     .485       39       20   
    76   Reggie Sanders           2006      325     .439     .304     .425       38      -23   
    77   Tim Raines               1998      321     .474     .395     .383       38        2   
    78   Julio Franco             2004      320     .472     .378     .441       45       -3   
    79   B.J. Surhoff             2003      319     .442     .353     .404       38        1   
    80   Larry Walker             2005      315     .545     .384     .502       38       12   
    T81  Cal Ripken               2000      309     .460     .310     .453       39       -2   
    T81  Mark McLemore            2003      309     .378     .318     .314       38      -12   
    83   Ruben Sierra             2004      307     .476     .296     .456       38      -10   
    84   B.J. Surhoff             2005      303     .357     .282     .356       40      -11   
    85   Willie McGee             1997      300     .458     .347     .420       38        0   
    86   Mark Grace               2002      298     .457     .351     .386       38      -10   
    87   Fred McGriff             2003      297     .462     .322     .428       39       -7   
    T88  Harold Baines            1998      293     .451     .369     .451       39       -3   
    T88  Jim Eisenreich           1997      293     .405     .345     .372       38       -4   
    T90  Wade Boggs               1999      292     .404     .377     .377       41        1   
    T90  Andres Galarraga         2002      292     .437     .344     .394       41      -10   
    92   Harold Baines            2000      283     .463     .338     .417       41      -13   
    93   Tom Lampkin              2002      281     .436     .313     .367       38        3   
    94   Gary Gaetti              1999      280     .364     .260     .339       40      -28
    Last edited by westofyou; 01-10-2007 at 01:26 PM.

  8. #22
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Re: The 37 year old ballplayer

    The problem is that the Reds, as a small market team, can't just eat Griffey's contract and acquire someone better. The Yankees, Red Sox, etc would do this but the Reds can't.

    If I were the Reds Griffey would play RF vs righties and rest vs lefties.
    He was terrible vs lefties in 2006.
    He would be replaced in blow outs and in late innings defensively.
    This way you could maximize whatever value he has left.
    .

  9. #23
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: The 37 year old ballplayer

    I have no problem with Junior playing RF. He can't play CF though.
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

  10. #24
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    Re: The 37 year old ballplayer

    Quote Originally Posted by redsupport View Post
    any wager with griffey is going to lose, he should have quit already, he has dragged the team down its nadir


    Sorry, but I'm happy he hasn't retired.

    No matter what I'm doing when the game is on, I stop everything and watch Griffey hit.

    I want to be able to enjoy that for a few more years.

  11. #25
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    Re: The 37 year old ballplayer

    At this point, isn't it worth it if someone justs picks up his contract and we get nothing in return? Heck, i was thought we were there 2 years ago when Atlanta was looking at him. If a team offers to just carry the contract then you got to let him go and thank heavens you got some freedom to move financially (all this is based upon Mr. Griffey allowing for a trade).

    Many folks have said it, but i think M2 was the first. Reds aren't serious about winning until Griffey is moved from CF. He's the pink elaphant in the room.

  12. #26
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    Re: The 37 year old ballplayer

    Quite frankly, I want Jr on this team. I need Jr. on this team. I just don't want him in CF. I want him in LF or 1B

  13. #27
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: The 37 year old ballplayer

    I dont want to see JR traded.... I just dont want to see him in CF anymore.

  14. #28
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: The 37 year old ballplayer

    IMHO, there is tremendous pressure on Griffey's bat in '07.

    Here are mlb positional averages for 2006:
    LF: .276/.348/.456 OPS: .804
    CF: .267/.332/.425 OPS: .757
    RF: .277/.345/.458 OPS: .803

    Griffey:
    '06: .252/.316/.486 OPS: .802

    Griffey has morphed into one of the worst defensive center fielders in the game today due in part to deteriorated range. Few now argue that he should remain in center field. This is a valid concern because while, even with Griffey's better than average offensive numbers for a CFer, he really was approximately replacement level in '06 when factoring in his defense (VORP=16 and there isn't a defensive metric among the gold standards that thought he was better than -16 runs defensively). WOW. That sucks to even consider.

    Unfortunately, moving Griffey to a corner in '07 probably won't be the boom most may be assuming. Given the higher offensive standards at the corner positions, Griffey's '06 would've made him simply average offensively as a corner outfielder. Even though those positions are easier to play than center, it's still difficult to envision Griffey being league average at either position defensively-especially given the wear and tear he'll endure over the course of the season. Considering both his offense and defense, Griffey has to have a serious rebound with the bat just to be league average-even if he changes positions. The chances of him being significantly better than a league average corner outfielder aren't promising IMHO given the way the defensive shift emasculated his BABIP and OBP last season. In fact things in '07 could turn really ugly.

    Even best case scenario, he will be dramatically overpaid for his production. To be considered a good deal for the Reds, Griffey needs to be a 4 win player. Given his defense, there is absolutely no way his bat could be reasonably expected to be good enough for him to reach that level if he stays in center. Playing a corner he probably needs a VORP of 50-60 to compensate for his glove (i.e. Griffey of '05 needs to return). Thats alot to ask of a 37 year old body that is showing obvious signs of becoming increasingly fragile.

    Griffey's defense isn't going to get better. Its vital that the Reds find a way to maximize his bat. IMHO, given the payroll they have committed to him, it's imperative that Griffey both moves to first base against traditional national league opponents to save his body and hide his glove and that he DH's during interleague play. If Griffey has to play in the outfield, i'd strongly consider a platoon situation where Freel gets the majority of at bats versus lefties.
    Last edited by jojo; 01-11-2007 at 09:33 PM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner


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