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Thread: Projecting the Reds 2007 Record/ZiPS

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  1. #1
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    Projecting the Reds 2007 Record/ZiPS

    As we sit and wait, not so patiently, for the Reds to make roster improvements for the upcoming season. I thought I'd take a look at what kind of record we might expect from the Reds for this upcoming season with their current roster. I used Dan Szymborski's ZIPS projections from the Baseball Think Factory site, http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/ , for the projection. The following are the results.

    Pyth. WP W L
    .475 77 85
    Code:
    Name                BA  OBP  SLG   AB  RC
    Dunn,Adam         .259 .382 .536  556 114
    Phillips,Brandon  .266 .320 .405  511  66
    Hatteberg,Scott   .270 .360 .398  460  66
    Encarnacion,Edwin .275 .351 .489  454  78
    Gonzalez,Alex     .245 .293 .390  449  51
    Freel,Ryan        .265 .361 .376  441  60
    Griffey Jr. ,Ken  .270 .342 .506  423  73
    Denorfia,Chris    .287 .353 .440  418  65
    Conine,Jeff       .266 .333 .394  406  53
    Castro,Juan       .240 .277 .351  262  25
    Moeller,Chad      .206 .266 .314  223  19
    Ross,Dave         .234 .326 .482  197  31
    Valentin,Javier   .256 .326 .446  195  28
    Hamilton,Josh     .261 .305 .412  165  21
    Keppinger,Jeff    .286 .338 .360   50   6
    Pitchers          .142 .164 .204  309  10
    Totals            .254 .330 .417 5519 759
    					
    					
    Name               ERA   G  GS  INN   R
    Arroyo,Bronson    3.86  34  32  212 100
    Harang,Aaron      4.03  33  33  210 103
    Milton,Eric       4.96  31  31  178 107
    Lohse,Kyle        4.96  35  27  167 101
    Santos,Victor     5.08  26  20  124  77
    Belisle,Matt      4.95  42  13  109  66
    Majewski,Gary     4.21  69   1   77  39
    Coffey,Todd       4.04  70   0   69  34
    Weathers,David    5.35  66   0   69  45
    Stanton,Mike      3.71  68   0   68  30
    Shackelford,Brian 4.81  62   0   58  34
    Cormier,Rheal     4.89  68   0   57  34
    Bray,Bill         4.79  42   0   47  27
    Totals            4.53 646 157 1445 797
    The current Reds roster projects to about a 77-85 season. That's actually better than I was expecting. A similar projection before last season produced about a 84-78 record. It'll be interesting to see how any upcoming moves affect the projection. Here's hoping we see some positive moves made before the season starts, or I fear it's going to be a long disappointing season for us Reds fans.
    Last edited by Joseph; 02-02-2007 at 04:51 PM. Reason: added coding
    Later,

    Tom

    "One thing about Adam is he wants to play every day. He's played hurt the last couple of years. A lot of people get on him about a lot of different things, but he plays. A whole lot of people look at what he can't do instead of what he does do for us." - Jerry Narron on Adam Dunn.

  2. #2
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    Re: Projecting the Reds 2007 Record

    90-72 great season with the playoffs in the air.
    Harang-18-9 3.27 era
    Arroyo- 16-13 3.89 eradicates
    Milton-14-12 4.79 era
    Lohse-12-12 4.24 era
    pitcher to be acquired(im thinking Lieber,because cincy and the phils to trade alot.the reds do have extra BP arms)
    12-10 4.89 era
    Dunn 270 48 115
    Griffey 280 33 103
    EE 310 28 95
    BP 290 18 62
    A Gonzalez 255 21 75
    Hatte 287 13 61
    Ross 245 17 55
    Add someone else to the OF and were set.
    A man can dream cant he,lol.

  3. #3
    part of BBN jmac's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting the Reds 2007 Record

    Quote Originally Posted by fewfirstchoice View Post
    90-72 great season with the playoffs in the air.
    Harang-18-9 3.27 era
    Arroyo- 16-13 3.89 eradicates
    Milton-14-12 4.79 era
    Lohse-12-12 4.24 era
    pitcher to be acquired(im thinking Lieber,because cincy and the phils to trade alot.the reds do have extra BP arms)
    12-10 4.89 era
    Dunn 270 48 115
    Griffey 280 33 103
    EE 310 28 95
    BP 290 18 62
    A Gonzalez 255 21 75
    Hatte 287 13 61
    Ross 245 17 55
    Add someone else to the OF and were set.
    A man can dream cant he,lol.
    I can easily see EE doing those #'s and Dunn doing the power aspect.

  4. #4
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    Re: Projecting the Reds 2007 Record

    Quote Originally Posted by fewfirstchoice View Post
    90-72 great season with the playoffs in the air.
    Harang-18-9 3.27 era
    Arroyo- 16-13 3.89 eradicates
    Milton-14-12 4.79 era
    Lohse-12-12 4.24 era
    pitcher to be acquired(im thinking Lieber,because cincy and the phils to trade alot.the reds do have extra BP arms)
    12-10 4.89 era
    Dunn 270 48 115
    Griffey 280 33 103
    EE 310 28 95
    BP 290 18 62
    A Gonzalez 255 21 75
    Hatte 287 13 61
    Ross 245 17 55
    Add someone else to the OF and were set.
    A man can dream cant he,lol.
    I actually don't think that's too unrealistic. Except for Jr having 103 RBI's. He would have to average 1 RBI for every game played and even in his prime...

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    Re: Projecting the Reds 2007 Record

    The really big thing that has to happen if the Reds hope to improve this year is for Harang & Arroyo to repeat there good seasons and that's not a given only the stars have one good year after another and i think Harang is there but if Arroyo slumps then we're in big trouble.If both repeat there good years we still need another starter to step up and win 15 and Conine has to produce like Aurilia did.GO CINCY!!!!

  6. #6
    Member Superdude's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting the Reds 2007 Record

    How much longer do we have Arroyo and Harang locked up? With the market the way it is, projections like this make dealing Arroyo for prospects sound like a nice idea.

  7. #7
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    Re: Projecting the Reds 2007 Record

    If JR can stay healthy all season long he still has the talent to be a outstanding BB player.HE has proofed this over the last 2 seasons,he plasy well when healthy.
    I also expect EE to put up or close to the #'s I posted.If Dunn has those power #'s his average will also raise around the 270's.But if the rest of the guys put up #'s like I hope the Reds will have a big season in 07.

  8. #8
    Member dunner13's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting the Reds 2007 Record

    I think our record is going to mostly depend on how milton, lohse and bailey do. If milton and lohse can be at least average starters and bailey can have an impact then 85 wins should be within reach. And with the central being so even right now, 85 might get you in.

  9. #9
    Senor Votto Degenerate39's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting the Reds 2007 Record

    I don't think you can predict wins. You never know what can happen. Who would have thought that we would have close to a 500 record this year?
    Most Vottomatic Player

  10. #10
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    Re: Projecting the Reds 2007 Record

    Quote Originally Posted by degenerate10 View Post
    I don't think you can predict wins. You never know what can happen. Who would have thought that we would have close to a 500 record this year?
    Me. (And a bunch of other folks--check the archives).

  11. #11
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    Re: Projecting the Reds 2007 Record

    We Will Win Our Division This Year.we Need To Put Griffey In Right Field And Freel In Center To Cover Alot More Territory.

  12. #12
    Tired of talk. Win! Joseph's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting the Reds 2007 Record

    What I find interesting looking over these ZiPS is that we do not project to have even ONE league average reliever for 2007. Couple that with only 2 league average or better starters, and it's going to be a loooooooong season.

    Championships for MY teams in my lifetime:
    Cincinnati Reds - 75, 76, 90
    Chicago Blackhawks - 10, 13
    University of Kentucky - 78, 96, 98, 12
    Cincinnati Bengals - None
    Chicago Bulls - 91, 92, 93, 96, 97, 98

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    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting the Reds 2007 Record

    Quote Originally Posted by Joseph View Post
    What I find interesting looking over these ZiPS is that we do not project to have even ONE league average reliever for 2007. Couple that with only 2 league average or better starters, and it's going to be a loooooooong season.
    Yep, and we traded two above league-average position players to get no league average relievers. Sorry about beating a dead horse, but it's true.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  14. #14
    15 game winner Danny Serafini's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting the Reds 2007 Record

    Anyone else scared by the fact that it predicted more ABs for Chad Moeller than any other catcher?

  15. #15
    Tired of talk. Win! Joseph's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting the Reds 2007 Record

    These projections also see Adam Dunn hitting 40 HRs with 98 RBI, for what its worth.

    Yes DS, very scared that Moeller has the most ABs.

    Championships for MY teams in my lifetime:
    Cincinnati Reds - 75, 76, 90
    Chicago Blackhawks - 10, 13
    University of Kentucky - 78, 96, 98, 12
    Cincinnati Bengals - None
    Chicago Bulls - 91, 92, 93, 96, 97, 98


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