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Thread: Projecting the Reds 2007 Record/ZiPS

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    Projecting the Reds 2007 Record/ZiPS

    As we sit and wait, not so patiently, for the Reds to make roster improvements for the upcoming season. I thought I'd take a look at what kind of record we might expect from the Reds for this upcoming season with their current roster. I used Dan Szymborski's ZIPS projections from the Baseball Think Factory site, http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/ , for the projection. The following are the results.

    Pyth. WP W L
    .475 77 85
    Code:
    Name                BA  OBP  SLG   AB  RC
    Dunn,Adam         .259 .382 .536  556 114
    Phillips,Brandon  .266 .320 .405  511  66
    Hatteberg,Scott   .270 .360 .398  460  66
    Encarnacion,Edwin .275 .351 .489  454  78
    Gonzalez,Alex     .245 .293 .390  449  51
    Freel,Ryan        .265 .361 .376  441  60
    Griffey Jr. ,Ken  .270 .342 .506  423  73
    Denorfia,Chris    .287 .353 .440  418  65
    Conine,Jeff       .266 .333 .394  406  53
    Castro,Juan       .240 .277 .351  262  25
    Moeller,Chad      .206 .266 .314  223  19
    Ross,Dave         .234 .326 .482  197  31
    Valentin,Javier   .256 .326 .446  195  28
    Hamilton,Josh     .261 .305 .412  165  21
    Keppinger,Jeff    .286 .338 .360   50   6
    Pitchers          .142 .164 .204  309  10
    Totals            .254 .330 .417 5519 759
    					
    					
    Name               ERA   G  GS  INN   R
    Arroyo,Bronson    3.86  34  32  212 100
    Harang,Aaron      4.03  33  33  210 103
    Milton,Eric       4.96  31  31  178 107
    Lohse,Kyle        4.96  35  27  167 101
    Santos,Victor     5.08  26  20  124  77
    Belisle,Matt      4.95  42  13  109  66
    Majewski,Gary     4.21  69   1   77  39
    Coffey,Todd       4.04  70   0   69  34
    Weathers,David    5.35  66   0   69  45
    Stanton,Mike      3.71  68   0   68  30
    Shackelford,Brian 4.81  62   0   58  34
    Cormier,Rheal     4.89  68   0   57  34
    Bray,Bill         4.79  42   0   47  27
    Totals            4.53 646 157 1445 797
    The current Reds roster projects to about a 77-85 season. That's actually better than I was expecting. A similar projection before last season produced about a 84-78 record. It'll be interesting to see how any upcoming moves affect the projection. Here's hoping we see some positive moves made before the season starts, or I fear it's going to be a long disappointing season for us Reds fans.
    Last edited by Joseph; 02-02-2007 at 05:51 PM. Reason: added coding
    Later,

    Tom

    "One thing about Adam is he wants to play every day. He's played hurt the last couple of years. A lot of people get on him about a lot of different things, but he plays. A whole lot of people look at what he can't do instead of what he does do for us." - Jerry Narron on Adam Dunn.


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