As we sit and wait, not so patiently, for the Reds to make roster improvements for the upcoming season. I thought I'd take a look at what kind of record we might expect from the Reds for this upcoming season with their current roster. I used Dan Szymborski's ZIPS projections from the Baseball Think Factory site, http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/ , for the projection. The following are the results.
Pyth. WP W L
.475 77 85
Code:
Name BA OBP SLG AB RC
Dunn,Adam .259 .382 .536 556 114
Phillips,Brandon .266 .320 .405 511 66
Hatteberg,Scott .270 .360 .398 460 66
Encarnacion,Edwin .275 .351 .489 454 78
Gonzalez,Alex .245 .293 .390 449 51
Freel,Ryan .265 .361 .376 441 60
Griffey Jr. ,Ken .270 .342 .506 423 73
Denorfia,Chris .287 .353 .440 418 65
Conine,Jeff .266 .333 .394 406 53
Castro,Juan .240 .277 .351 262 25
Moeller,Chad .206 .266 .314 223 19
Ross,Dave .234 .326 .482 197 31
Valentin,Javier .256 .326 .446 195 28
Hamilton,Josh .261 .305 .412 165 21
Keppinger,Jeff .286 .338 .360 50 6
Pitchers .142 .164 .204 309 10
Totals .254 .330 .417 5519 759
Name ERA G GS INN R
Arroyo,Bronson 3.86 34 32 212 100
Harang,Aaron 4.03 33 33 210 103
Milton,Eric 4.96 31 31 178 107
Lohse,Kyle 4.96 35 27 167 101
Santos,Victor 5.08 26 20 124 77
Belisle,Matt 4.95 42 13 109 66
Majewski,Gary 4.21 69 1 77 39
Coffey,Todd 4.04 70 0 69 34
Weathers,David 5.35 66 0 69 45
Stanton,Mike 3.71 68 0 68 30
Shackelford,Brian 4.81 62 0 58 34
Cormier,Rheal 4.89 68 0 57 34
Bray,Bill 4.79 42 0 47 27
Totals 4.53 646 157 1445 797
The current Reds roster projects to about a 77-85 season. That's actually better than I was expecting. A similar projection before last season produced about a 84-78 record. It'll be interesting to see how any upcoming moves affect the projection. Here's hoping we see some positive moves made before the season starts, or I fear it's going to be a long disappointing season for us Reds fans.