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Thread: Projecting the Reds 2007 Record/ZiPS

  1. #16
    Tired of talk. Win! Joseph's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting the Reds 2007 Record

    Code:
    2007 ZiPS Projections 
    -------------------------------------------------------------
    Player      W   L   G  GS   IP    H   ER  HR  BB  SO   ERA
    -------------------------------------------------------------
    Saarloos    6   9  29  20  130  144   75  18  58  62  5.19
    Here are Saarloos' projections for the year, and no, I have no idea if these ZiPS are effective methods.

    Championships for MY teams in my lifetime:
    Cincinnati Reds - 75, 76, 90
    Chicago Blackhawks - 10, 13
    University of Kentucky - 78, 96, 98, 12
    Cincinnati Bengals - None
    Chicago Bulls - 91, 92, 93, 96, 97, 98

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  3. #17
    Tired of talk. Win! Joseph's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting the Reds 2007 Record

    Some 2006 ZiPS

    Code:
    Name               P    AVG   OBP   SPC   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
    Dunn*              lf  .254  .388  .560 157 548 105 139 31  1 45 110 114 174  5  2 
    Griffey*           cf  .280  .359  .548 108 403  65 113 24  0 28  78  48  80  0  1 
    Encarnacion        3b  .262  .327  .449 140 485  67 127 31  0 20  73  44 108 11  5 
    LaRue              c   .246  .336  .430 113 374  42  92 25  1 14  54  34 105  1  1 
    Freel              2b  .270  .364  .366 116 415  65 112 20  4  4  33  55  65 32 11 
    Denorfia           cf  .256  .327  .389 148 512  76 131 21  4 13  57  53 110  7  6

    Championships for MY teams in my lifetime:
    Cincinnati Reds - 75, 76, 90
    Chicago Blackhawks - 10, 13
    University of Kentucky - 78, 96, 98, 12
    Cincinnati Bengals - None
    Chicago Bulls - 91, 92, 93, 96, 97, 98

  4. #18
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting the Reds 2007 Record/ZiPS

    Quote Originally Posted by tomd63 View Post
    As we sit and wait, not so patiently, for the Reds to make roster improvements for the upcoming season. I thought I'd take a look at what kind of record we might expect from the Reds for this upcoming season with their current roster. I used Dan Szymborski's ZIPS projections from the Baseball Think Factory site, http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/ , for the projection. The following are the results.

    Pyth. WP W L
    .475 77 85
    Code:
    Name                BA  OBP  SLG   AB  RC
    Dunn,Adam         .259 .382 .536  556 114
    Phillips,Brandon  .266 .320 .405  511  66
    Hatteberg,Scott   .270 .360 .398  460  66
    Encarnacion,Edwin .275 .351 .489  454  78
    Gonzalez,Alex     .245 .293 .390  449  51
    Freel,Ryan        .265 .361 .376  441  60
    Griffey Jr. ,Ken  .270 .342 .506  423  73
    Denorfia,Chris    .287 .353 .440  418  65
    Conine,Jeff       .266 .333 .394  406  53
    Castro,Juan       .240 .277 .351  262  25
    Moeller,Chad      .206 .266 .314  223  19
    Ross,Dave         .234 .326 .482  197  31
    Valentin,Javier   .256 .326 .446  195  28
    Hamilton,Josh     .261 .305 .412  165  21
    Keppinger,Jeff    .286 .338 .360   50   6
    Pitchers          .142 .164 .204  309  10
    Totals            .254 .330 .417 5519 759
    					
    					
    Name               ERA   G  GS  INN   R
    Arroyo,Bronson    3.86  34  32  212 100
    Harang,Aaron      4.03  33  33  210 103
    Milton,Eric       4.96  31  31  178 107
    Lohse,Kyle        4.96  35  27  167 101
    Santos,Victor     5.08  26  20  124  77
    Belisle,Matt      4.95  42  13  109  66
    Majewski,Gary     4.21  69   1   77  39
    Coffey,Todd       4.04  70   0   69  34
    Weathers,David    5.35  66   0   69  45
    Stanton,Mike      3.71  68   0   68  30
    Shackelford,Brian 4.81  62   0   58  34
    Cormier,Rheal     4.89  68   0   57  34
    Bray,Bill         4.79  42   0   47  27
    Totals            4.53 646 157 1445 797
    The current Reds roster projects to about a 77-85 season. That's actually better than I was expecting. A similar projection before last season produced about a 84-78 record. It'll be interesting to see how any upcoming moves affect the projection. Here's hoping we see some positive moves made before the season starts, or I fear it's going to be a long disappointing season for us Reds fans.
    Does that take defense into effect at all?


    Code:
    Name               P    AVG   OBP   SPC   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
    Dunn*              lf  .254  .388  .560 157 548 105 139 31  1 45 110 114 174  5  2 
    Griffey*           cf  .280  .359  .548 108 403  65 113 24  0 28  78  48  80  0  1 
    Encarnacion        3b  .262  .327  .449 140 485  67 127 31  0 20  73  44 108 11  5 
    LaRue              c   .246  .336  .430 113 374  42  92 25  1 14  54  34 105  1  1 
    Freel              2b  .270  .364  .366 116 415  65 112 20  4  4  33  55  65 32 11 
    Denorfia           cf  .256  .327  .389 148 512  76 131 21  4 13  57  53 110  7  6
    [/QUOTE]
    That shows how meaningless this really is.
    "The guy I think could be really good in center is Adam Dunn. If someone asked me if Dunn could be a center fielder for the next 10 years, if he started working on it, no one could explain to me why he couldnít do it." - Brad Kullman

  5. #19
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting the Reds 2007 Record

    Quote Originally Posted by Joseph View Post
    What I find interesting looking over these ZiPS is that we do not project to have even ONE league average reliever for 2007. Couple that with only 2 league average or better starters, and it's going to be a loooooooong season.
    Yep, and we traded two above league-average position players to get no league average relievers. Sorry about beating a dead horse, but it's true.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  6. #20
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    Re: Projecting the Reds 2007 Record/ZiPS

    I really think the Reds will breakthrough and make the playoffs. I think Harang is good for at least 15 wins, and I'm hoping Bronson gets at least 12. I think the x-factor in the rotation will be Milton though. He looked much better towards the end of last year.

  7. #21
    Miami Redhawks Redhook's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting the Reds 2007 Record/ZiPS

    Quote Originally Posted by Redleg39 View Post
    I really think the Reds will breakthrough and make the playoffs. I think the x-factor in the rotation will be Milton though. He looked much better towards the end of last year.
    It would probably take 20 wins from Milton for the Reds to get into the playoffs this year. Could happen. I could also win the U.S. Open at Oakmont this year. Really, I could.
    "....the two players I liked watching the most were Barry Larkin and Eric Davis. I was suitably entertained by their effortless skill that I didn't need them crashing into walls like a squirrel on a coke binge." - dsmith421

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