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Thread: Centerfield possibilities if KGJ moves to right

  1. #31
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    Re: Centerfield possibilities if KGJ moves to right

    I dont think the Reds need to go chasing after any out fielders they have good enough out fielders in Dunn,Grif,freel, and denorfiea. If it was up to me i would try to trade dunn for some releif help in the closer role.

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  3. #32
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Centerfield possibilities if KGJ moves to right

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    Deno made the adjustments and Larson didn't.
    Larson just didn't have the ability. He was atrocious defensively and a free swinger at the plate. He got exposed at the major league level.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  4. #33
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    Re: Centerfield possibilities if KGJ moves to right

    Quote Originally Posted by DaReds22 View Post
    I dont think the Reds need to go chasing after any out fielders they have good enough out fielders in Dunn,Grif,freel, and denorfiea. If it was up to me i would try to trade dunn for some releif help in the closer role.
    yeah, that would be great. Where would the Reds get offense from?
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

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    Re: Centerfield possibilities if KGJ moves to right

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I just downloaded them today M2. I'm not sure if weight means is the same as the 50% PECOTA, but apparently it REALLY likes Votto and Deno shows up pretty solid as well.
    BP's systems have a long and storied tradition of over estimating what young players can do. It date's back to Gary Huckaby's systems. It's .....It's part of their theology. That's not to say that Votto and Deno can't play, because they darn well can. It's just something to be aware of. PECOTA tends to inflate younger players on the cusp of real playing time. Where it's usually better than other systems is catching the older player who is very likely to crater. That's what seperates BP's methodology from the linear weights guys. I don't think Nate has changed it much.
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    Re: Centerfield possibilities if KGJ moves to right

    Quote Originally Posted by DaReds22 View Post
    I dont think the Reds need to go chasing after any out fielders they have good enough out fielders in Dunn,Grif,freel, and denorfiea. If it was up to me i would try to trade dunn for some releif help in the closer role.
    Yes, they do need OF's. Griffey is 37 and cannot stay healthy. Dunn is high priced and if his stats continue to drop for the third straight year the Reds won't be able to justify paying over 12 million a year for him so this season will be it. Freel is 31 years old and injury prone. Denorfia is unproven at the Major League level. The Reds are in real trouble in the OF. It might have been better if they had loaded up on OF's instead of relievers in the offseason.

  7. #36
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Centerfield possibilities if KGJ moves to right

    I'm just terrified by the fact that Bernie Williams, Steve Finley, and Darin Erstad are all out there on the market to tempt Wayne.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

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    Re: Centerfield possibilities if KGJ moves to right

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Option #1: Denorfia
    That would just make too much sense.

    It seems many have already given up on Denorfia, even after he finished the 2006 campaign on fire.

    Some even prefer Norris Hopper over Denorfia. Boggles the mind.

  9. #38
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    Re: Centerfield possibilities if KGJ moves to right

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    and after about another 20 or so he got it going. If Narron had not gone overboard who knows how it might have turned out.

    Denorfia has never gotten a chance to show what he can do, it would be silly to not give him that opportunity now, especially since it isn't like the Reds are loaded in the OF.
    Exactly.
    Many forget Deno started hitting much better with the more AB's he got.
    Plus Deno/Freel are the reds only legitimate leadoff hitters as of right now and I sure would rather see one of them rather than the reds having gone after ....say pierre.

  10. #39
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Centerfield possibilities if KGJ moves to right

    Larson wasn't a top notch defensive CF. When you're a mediocre defending 3B, you darn well better hit. If Deno can put up a .750 OPS, he becomes a league average or better CF immediately. I don't think people are saying that Deno is the greatest CF ever or that we should pencil him in to CF for the next 5 years. But given the current roster, not giving him a real significant chance to be the everyday guy is just a poor use of talent.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  11. #40
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Centerfield possibilities if KGJ moves to right

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Larson wasn't a top notch defensive CF. When you're a mediocre defending 3B, you darn well better hit. If Deno can put up a .750 OPS, he becomes a league average or better CF immediately. I don't think people are saying that Deno is the greatest CF ever or that we should pencil him in to CF for the next 5 years. But given the current roster, not giving him a real significant chance to be the everyday guy is just a poor use of talent.
    Right. Besides, IMHO, replacing a below average CF who's being paid $12.5M/yr with a league average one who's making under $400K/yr represents a huge upgrade at a premium position. Pecota projects Denorfia to have about .064 more OPS than the major league average CFer from '06. His glove is probably at least league average there as well. Denorfia has the potential to be a 3 win centerfielder. At his salary and considering the blackhole in centerfield last year, that would be a big deal.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Centerfield possibilities if KGJ moves to right

    I'm comfortable with Denorfia playing CF and hitting at the top of the order, with Freel getting some games at CF (20-30) and even Griffey playing there 10-15 games. This means that Denorfia can concentrate on his fielding and getting on base, both of which are skills he can command. I don't expect him to hit 20+ HRs like he did in the minors, but if he can OPS over 775, that is acceptable for a few years, until a better talent can be brought in.

  13. #42
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    Re: Centerfield possibilities if KGJ moves to right

    The thread title I know aleady asks us to assume Junior will move, which is good for the purpose of debate. But should we factor his "blessing" in on this discussion?

    Would Junior leave his all-century post... for Deno?

    I just don't see it. And believe you me, this is not about what should be. I personally think it would be best for everyone for Junior to shift to right. Or at least be open to that. But this isn't about that. It's about what Junior would do. Or what the Reds FO will ask him to do.

    And I'm just not sure. I think it would take an MLB-proven centerfielder to persuade Junior to move. It would be, in his mind, a slap in his proud face to be asked to move for anyone less.
    I have a love-hate relationship with Albert Pujols. Mostly hate.

  14. #43
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    Re: Centerfield possibilities if KGJ moves to right

    Quote Originally Posted by I(heart)Freel View Post
    The thread title I know aleady asks us to assume Junior will move, which is good for the purpose of debate. But should we factor his "blessing" in on this discussion?

    Would Junior leave his all-century post... for Deno?

    I just don't see it. And believe you me, this is not about what should be. I personally think it would be best for everyone for Junior to shift to right. Or at least be open to that. But this isn't about that. It's about what Junior would do. Or what the Reds FO will ask him to do.

    And I'm just not sure. I think it would take an MLB-proven centerfielder to persuade Junior to move. It would be, in his mind, a slap in his proud face to be asked to move for anyone less.
    My problem is Jr still saying the "someone better" like there is none better in house.
    Did Jr not see all the Freel highlights from last year and Deno had a few as well.
    Common sense would tell a 37 year old that someone younger could cover more ground.I am a Jr fan but this baffles me unless it is merely a face-saving move on his part.If that is the case, I think i would use the "moving to preserve my career" line.

  15. #44
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    Re: Centerfield possibilities if KGJ moves to right

    Quote Originally Posted by jmac View Post
    My problem is Jr still saying the "someone better" like there is none better in house.
    Did Jr not see all the Freel highlights from last year and Deno had a few as well.
    Common sense would tell a 37 year old that someone younger could cover more ground.I am a Jr fan but this baffles me unless it is merely a face-saving move on his part.If that is the case, I think i would use the "moving to preserve my career" line.
    I think KGJ knows that Deno and Freel can cover the outfield better than he can, atleast I hope he does. IMO he is saying anyone better because neither of these guys have extended CF playing time under their belt. He can get away with saying this because who knows how either will fair playing there for a full season. I think that he feels that with his deserved reputation as one of the best of all time that he would move to right if a top level centerfielder were to replace him. I mean think about it, a guy with his achievments, injuries aside, would have to be having a hard time moving positions to be replaced by a platoon player or a guy who has had little major league experience or success. Not to say that I don't think it's the right move, but there have been situations in the past when guys have refused to move positions with far better or shall I say proven replacements waiting in the wings.

  16. #45
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Centerfield possibilities if KGJ moves to right

    Quote Originally Posted by dfs View Post
    BP's systems have a long and storied tradition of over estimating what young players can do. It date's back to Gary Huckaby's systems...................PECOTA tends to inflate younger players on the cusp of real playing time.
    What makes you say this? I'd love to hear your thoughts...
    Last edited by jojo; 01-22-2007 at 03:33 PM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner


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