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Thread: "The Trade" Arbitration #'s

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    "The Trade" Arbitration #'s

    Bill Ladson, of Nationals.MLB.com, reports the Washington Nationals and 2B Felipe Lopez have exchanged arbitration figures. Lopez is looking for a $4.1 million salary, while the Nationals countered with a $3.7 million offer.

    Bill Ladson, of Nationals.MLB.com, reports the Washington Nationals and OF Austin Kearns have exchanged arbitration figures. Kearns is looking for a $4.25 million salary, while the Nationals countered with a $3.65 million offer.

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: "The Trade" Arbitration #'s

    Quote Originally Posted by Red Rover View Post
    Bill Ladson, of Nationals.MLB.com, reports the Washington Nationals and 2B Felipe Lopez have exchanged arbitration figures. Lopez is looking for a $4.1 million salary, while the Nationals countered with a $3.7 million offer.

    Bill Ladson, of Nationals.MLB.com, reports the Washington Nationals and OF Austin Kearns have exchanged arbitration figures. Kearns is looking for a $4.25 million salary, while the Nationals countered with a $3.65 million offer.
    I can't imagine that the Nats would go to arbitration with they're that close on both guys....
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: "The Trade" Arbitration #'s

    Neither is worth that much, imo

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: "The Trade" Arbitration #'s

    Interesting. I still think we can agree that:

    1.) We could have gotten more in return in terms of talent

    and

    2.) We could've spent the money saved more wisely than on Alex Gonzalez and Mike Stanton

    That said, the salary savings of over $7 Mil has quite a bit of value (even if misappropriated) and should be considered as we consider the return we got in the deal.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: "The Trade" Arbitration #'s

    If that money saved helps us get Aaron Harang to a LTC, then it was worth it.... Now Wayne just needs to make it happen.

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    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: "The Trade" Arbitration #'s

    Well since FeLo will be playing 2B, and ESPN has him listed as one, let's look at the top 10 2B in the NL:
    Code:
    RK PLAYER        TEAM	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
    1 Chase Utley	PHI	658	131	203	40	4	32	102	15	4	63	.309	.379	.527	.906
    2 Jamey Carroll	COL	463	84	139	23	5	5	36	10	12	56	.300	.377	.404	.781
    3 Ray Durham	SFO	498	79	146	30	7	26	93	7	2	51	.293	.360	.538	.898
    4 Jose Vidro	WAS	463	52	134	26	1	7	47	1	0	41	.289	.348	.395	.744
    5 Orlando Hudson	ARI	579	87	166	34	9	15	67	9	6	61	.287	.354	.454	.809
    6 Dan Uggla	FLA	611	105	172	26	7	27	90	6	6	48	.282	.339	.480	.818
    7 Josh Barfield	SDG	539	72	151	32	3	13	58	21	5	30	.280	.318	.423	.741
    8 Brandon Phillips CIN	536	65	148	28	1	17	75	25	2	35	.276	.324	.427	.751
    9 Felipe Lopez CIN/WAS	617	98	169	27	3	11	52	44	12	81	.274	.358	.381	.739
    10 Marcus Giles	ATL	550	87	144	32	2	11	60	10	5	62	.262	.341	.387	.729
    There is a lot of youth on that list, so it's hard to say if FeLo is worth the money. Durham and Vidro both made 7 mil last year. Though FeLo had the worst SLG of the top 10 2B (sorted by BA) his OBP was 4th best in the NL for 2B. Ahead of Uggla, Giles, Hudson and Brandon Phillips. He also had nearly twice as many SB's as the next highest total for the position. Given his service time, I'd say he's worth the money. And if he can return to the 15-20 HR numbers, with his SB prowess, he might be one of the better players at the 2B position, if he can handle the switch defensively.

    Which I think he can.
    Last edited by TRF; 01-18-2007 at 04:06 PM.
    Suck it up cupcake.

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    Re: "The Trade" Arbitration #'s

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I can't imagine that the Nats would go to arbitration with they're that close on both guys....
    That's Jim Bowden over there. He'll go after any little win he can get.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

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    Re: "The Trade" Arbitration #'s

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Well since FeLo will be playing 2B, and ESPN has him listed as one, let's look at the top 10 2B in the NL:
    Code:
    RK PLAYER        TEAM	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
    1 Chase Utley	PHI	658	131	203	40	4	32	102	15	4	63	.309	.379	.527	.906
    2 Jamey Carroll	COL	463	84	139	23	5	5	36	10	12	56	.300	.377	.404	.781
    3 Ray Durham	SFO	498	79	146	30	7	26	93	7	2	51	.293	.360	.538	.898
    4 Jose Vidro	WAS	463	52	134	26	1	7	47	1	0	41	.289	.348	.395	.744
    5 Orlando Hudson	ARI	579	87	166	34	9	15	67	9	6	61	.287	.354	.454	.809
    6 Dan Uggla	FLA	611	105	172	26	7	27	90	6	6	48	.282	.339	.480	.818
    7 Josh Barfield	SDG	539	72	151	32	3	13	58	21	5	30	.280	.318	.423	.741
    8 Brandon Phillips CIN	536	65	148	28	1	17	75	25	2	35	.276	.324	.427	.751
    9 Felipe Lopez CIN/WAS	617	98	169	27	3	11	52	44	12	81	.274	.358	.381	.739
    10 Marcus Giles	ATL	550	87	144	32	2	11	60	10	5	62	.262	.341	.387	.729
    There is a lot of youth on that list, so it's hard to say if FeLo is worth the money. Durham and Vidro both made 7 mil last year. Though FeLo had the worst SLG of the top 10 2B (sorted by BA) his OBP was 4th best in the NL for 2B. Ahead of Uggla, Giles, Hudson and Brandon Phillips. He also had nearly twice as many SB's as the next highest total for the position. Given his service time, I'd say he's worth the money. And if he can return to the 15-20 HR numbers, with his SB prowess, he might be one of the better players at the 2B position, if he can handle the switch defensively.

    Which I think he can.
    I'm sure he can make the switch but will he be any good? He's horrible in the field, at least at SS and I think the power he showed in 2005 was an aberration and helped along by a pretty good offensive team. If he can continue to get BB's and hit like last year, the Nationals have themselves a pretty good leadoff hitter. The question is how will he do defensively?

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    Re: "The Trade" Arbitration #'s

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    And if he can return to the 15-20 HR numbers, with his SB prowess, he might be one of the better players at the 2B position, if he can handle the switch defensively.

    Which I think he can.
    I'm not sure that anyone can expect FeLo to put up GABP numbers in Wash.

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    Re: "The Trade" Arbitration #'s

    Quote Originally Posted by FutureRedsGM View Post
    I'm not sure that anyone can expect FeLo to put up GABP numbers in Wash.
    He does play on the road too, if I remember correctly. All he needs to do is manage 4-5 HR's at home, 8-10 on the road. plus the steals and OBP.

    And I think he'll be fine defensively at 2B.

    He's going to be very good at 2B for a long time IMO.
    Suck it up cupcake.

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    Re: "The Trade" Arbitration #'s

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    He does play on the road too, if I remember correctly. All he needs to do is manage 4-5 HR's at home, 8-10 on the road. plus the steals and OBP.

    And I think he'll be fine defensively at 2B.

    He's going to be very good at 2B for a long time IMO.
    Per MLB.com

    One day after it was revealed that the Nationals are close to sending second baseman Jose Vidro to the Mariners for outfielder Chris Snelling and right-hander Emiliano Fruto, pending physicals, Felipe Lopez said he will make the switch from shortstop to second base for Washington in 2007.
    Lopez, 26, made the decision last week after talking to general manager Jim Bowden on the phone and manager Manny Acta in a face-to-face meeting in Orlando. It was Bowden who explained to Lopez that Cristian Guzman has no experience at second base and that Lopez was the logical choice to make a position switch.

    Lopez has played 12 games at second base during his career, and there are people in the front office and scouts around the league who feel that he is a far superior second baseman and third baseman than he is a shortstop.

    The last time Lopez played second base was in 2005 with the Reds. The plan is for Barry Larkin, Bowden's special advisor, to tutor Lopez at the position during Spring Training.

    Acta also asked Lopez about playing second and Lopez said he would do anything to help the team win -- except for playing left field or catcher.

    "I have no problem playing second base," Lopez said by phone late Tuesday afternoon. "I played there before. I just have to go to Spring Training and work at it. I haven't played there in a long time. It should not be hard. Of course, I would like to be at short, but due to circumstances, I don't mind playing second."

    The visit from Acta gave Lopez the feeling that his new boss wants to win in 2007, not in two or three years.

    "There is a lot of talent on the team, and we should play as a team and work on the fundamentals," Lopez said. "We should have a chance to win, instead of waiting because of a rebuilding year."

    Lopez also will be the leadoff hitter, replacing Alfonso Soriano, who signed a $136 million contract with the Cubs. Last season, Lopez batted second most of the time and hit .274 with 11 home runs, 52 RBIs and 44 stolen bases. He set career highs in walks (81), runs (98) and stolen bases. Lopez believes he will be a solid leadoff hitter.



    Complete coverage >
    "Hitting leadoff will not be a big transition for me. I was getting on base hitting second behind Soriano," Lopez said. "I'm going to treat it the same -- just get on base like I did last year and score a lot of runs.

    "I'm looking to improve, however. I want to cut down on the strikeouts. Even though I walked a lot, I want to put the ball in play a lot more and be aggressive."

    In other news, Vidro will have his physical on Friday and the trade between the Nationals and Mariners will become official that same day.


    Maybe with Larkin tutoring he'll have a chance to be pretty good.

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    Re: "The Trade" Arbitration #'s

    Wouldn't it have been better for us offensively if we kept Lopez switched him to 2nd base and Phillips to shortstop?
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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: "The Trade" Arbitration #'s

    Quote Originally Posted by degenerate10 View Post
    Wouldn't it have been better for us offensively if we kept Lopez switched him to 2nd base and Phillips to shortstop?
    But then we wouldn't have Gary Majewski, the carass of Royce Clayton, and the who knows what he'll ever do Daryl Thompson!
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: "The Trade" Arbitration #'s

    Quote Originally Posted by degenerate10 View Post
    Wouldn't it have been better for us offensively if we kept Lopez switched him to 2nd base and Phillips to shortstop?

    Yes. But that kind of thought tends to get ridiculed around here, so good luck with the musing. Rest assured you are not alone...

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: "The Trade" Arbitration #'s

    Here's my take on Lopez's worth/value:

    Based upon Pecota projections, Lopez should be good for about 82 RC in '07. Only 6 second baseman had more than 82 RC in the majors during '06. Estimating his VORP as a second baseman, it's roughly projected to be 25 (Pecota projects him with a VORP of 32 as a SS so I had to do some tweaking for him as a second baseman so for rough justice don't trust my spreadsheet and lets say its somewhere between 25-32).

    Assuming Lopez wins his arbitration case, that makes him a 2.5-3 win player (before considering defense) for $4.1M. I don't know how his defense will be at second, but my guess is he won't be league average. The fielding bible suggests his biggest weakness is to his right so the switch to second means his range will be exposed in the hole up the middle. None of the *gold standard * defensive systems liked Lopez at short last year (PMR:-17 runs and UZR= -21 runs). The general consensus was that he was one of the worst defensive shortstops in the majors. Second base is farther left on the defensive spectrum but only just to the left so it's not like he is moving to firstbase. Maybe a decent rough estimate is that Lopez is a -10 defender at second given his weakness toward the hole (think Adam Kennedy, Jeff Kent, or Rickie Weeks with the leather). So basically Lopez would be somewhere around a 2 win player given the sum of his bat and glove. That would make him a $2M/win player which makes him a good value (current going rate is $2.5 to 3M/win).

    I don't get why Bowden would nickel and dime Lopez in arbitration. I would've guessed that he would try to buy out his arb eligible years rather than argue with Lopez in an arbitration hearing. Maybe its the Boras factor?

    Lopez is a value even if he wins his arb hearing. However, depending upon his future raises, '07 might be the last season this can be said about him.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner


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