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Thread: Reds acquire Saarloos, sign Bellhorn

  1. #136
    Member Cedric's Avatar
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    Re: Reds acquire Saarloos, sign Bellhorn

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Since xFIP does the best job of isolating just the pitcher's performance from the rest of the noise on the field, being ranked the 4th best qualified starter in the majors by that metric is domination.....
    Man you love those experimental stats.

    I'll take my stats and you take yours.

    We got Ian Snell as the 20th best pitcher in the majors by your metric. Was he dominant now also?
    Last edited by Cedric; 01-26-2007 at 12:03 AM.
    This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.

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  3. #137
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    Re: Reds acquire Saarloos, sign Bellhorn

    Quote Originally Posted by Cedric View Post
    Man you love those experimental stats.

    I'll take my stats and you take yours.

    We got Ian Snell as the 20th best pitcher in the majors by your metric. Was he dominant now also?
    Ian Snell would be a GREAT addition to the Reds rotation....
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  4. #138
    Member Cedric's Avatar
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    Re: Reds acquire Saarloos, sign Bellhorn

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Ian Snell would be a GREAT addition to the Reds rotation....
    Sure. But that's not what we were discussing. I hope you didn't take it that way. I would do cart wheels for Felix Hernandez or Ian Snell considering our rotation and it's near future.

    I was just disagreeing with a simple point about said pitcher. I think everyone agrees that the Reds could do well in having Felix Hernandez on this staff.
    This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.

  5. #139
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    Re: Reds acquire Saarloos, sign Bellhorn

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Based upon what criteria?
    Based on not only his poor performances (again, strikeouts do not make a good pitching performance), but also the number of quality performances he had, which was less than Milton.

    Did you even watch him pitch last year other than an occasional ESPN highlight?
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

  6. #140
    Member Eric_Davis's Avatar
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    Re: Reds acquire Saarloos, sign Bellhorn

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    BABIP is a lousy metric to measure a pitcher by.... essentially hits/innings is basically saying the same thing in a round about way....by the same token, whip is meaningless because of the hits component and ERA....well shame on you.....

    He was 4th in xFIP, 6th in GB%, and 12th in K/G....in the majors..... he is already a great pitcher.....


    GB% ???? Who cares? It's absolutely meaningless!!!!!!

    K/G ????? Who cares? It's absolutely meaningless if you don't prevent the other batters from scoring runs.

    You need to put all your stats in a bag and bury them and remember that the team that scores the most runs wins the game.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

  7. #141
    Member Eric_Davis's Avatar
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    Re: Reds acquire Saarloos, sign Bellhorn

    Last year Felix Hernandez was ordered by management, as I'm sure you know based on how much time you seem to spend learning about these players, to eliminate one of his best pitches so that he wouldn't develop arm problems at an early age. Consequently, while he was learning to develop his location better and his change-up better, he would get shelled by poor pitching during this learning process. His fastball would still get a number of people out, but nobody's fastball can get a Major Leaguer out if that's all he has. His #1 pitch was removed from his arsenal. He had a good year for a starter, consequently, not the great one that you are saying he had. He was also much better than his ERA showed. While he's going to turn out to be one of the 10 best pitchers in baseball, possibly top 5, last year's performance was not the dominating performance that you suggest.
    Last edited by Eric_Davis; 01-26-2007 at 12:38 AM.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

  8. #142
    Member Eric_Davis's Avatar
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    Re: Reds acquire Saarloos, sign Bellhorn

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Since xFIP does the best job of isolating just the pitcher's performance from the rest of the noise on the field, being ranked the 4th best qualified starter in the majors by that metric is domination.....

    According to who? Certainly not anyone who watched Hernandez pitch last year.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

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    Re: Reds acquire Saarloos, sign Bellhorn

    Quote Originally Posted by Cedric View Post
    Sure. But that's not what we were discussing. I hope you didn't take it that way. I would do cart wheels for Felix Hernandez or Ian Snell considering our rotation and it's near future.

    I was just disagreeing with a simple point about said pitcher. I think everyone agrees that the Reds could do well in having Felix Hernandez on this staff.

    Concerning Hernandez vs. Snell, there's a big difference between #4 and #21 concerning "dominant". That being said, invoking Snell's name in no way invalidates xFIP... it really should actually be an eye opener for those who love ERA....

    Here's Felix's company in '06:
    1. Webb
    2. Santana
    3. Carpenter
    4. F. Hernandez
    5. Halladay

    Here's Snell's:
    18. Bedard
    19. Haren
    20. Westbrook
    21. Snell
    22. Millwood
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  10. #144
    Member Eric_Davis's Avatar
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    Re: Reds acquire Saarloos, sign Bellhorn

    Jojo, you're right. I'll take back what I said about Milton pitching better than Hernandez, as Milton was average and Hernandez was very good (between a #1 and a #2). But, Milton did have more quality starts pulling out enough from his ability to put together 14 good outings.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

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    Re: Reds acquire Saarloos, sign Bellhorn

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_Davis View Post
    Jojo, you're right. I'll take back what I said about Milton pitching better than Hernandez, as Milton was average and Hernandez was very good (between a #1 and a #2). But, Milton did have more quality starts pulling out enough from his ability to put together 14 good outings.
    Think about it though......QS is just as flawed as ERA....you're evaluating his performance based upon the number of runs he gives up..... it's just not very compelling to me...
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  12. #146
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    Re: Reds acquire Saarloos, sign Bellhorn

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_Davis View Post
    According to who? Certainly not anyone who watched Hernandez pitch last year.
    Actually.... I haven't heard anyone who has watched a majority of his starts say anything other than he's excellent
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  13. #147
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    Re: Reds acquire Saarloos, sign Bellhorn

    Quote Originally Posted by Dracodave View Post
    I've been clamoring that fact for days.

    Saarlos is 27, which is roughly the age Harrang put it together. Am I saying we're looking at 3.76 era from Kirk this year? No, but what I am saying is can Kirk better himself for us? Yes, will he? Thats (the now infamous) Mr. Poles job to help with.
    I've thought about this angle with Saarloos after you and others brought it up. I think it's a fair point to consider.

    However, here's the thing about age and upside....age isn't enough, you have to be young and have a skill set that suggests there is something to *put together*... Compare Harang and Saarloos. There is an absolutely huge difference between Harang's peripherals and Saarloos' at age 26/27.

    I think Pecota's projections for Saarloos really illustrates just how unlinked age and upside in and of themselves can be:

    breakout (i.e. chance his performance will improve 20% or greater):13%
    improve (chance his performance will improve at all): 32%
    collapse (chance his performance will decrease by at least 25%): 36%
    attrition (chance his playing time will decrease by at least 50% over previous levels for any reason): 39%

    Pecota isnt destiny of course, but it's pretty much screaming a stint in middle relief as Saarloos makes his way to the stadium exit and then out of the league...

    Saarloos has one overriding skill....he has a high GB%. That's not nearly enough to enable him to be as effective a starter as some have suggested he will be. I'm not sure that's enough to allow him to ultimately be a consistent contributor out of the bullpen.

    To me, Saarloos is a less attractive starter than EZ because while EZ really has no stuff, he can K enough batters and induce enough GB while not walking many to give decent quality innings as a #5/swingman. Saarloos is probably a better bet than EZ out of the pen, because while he can't control his stuff, it does do stuff and his ability to induce grounders could be leveraged into the rally killing double play in the 6th or 7th innings.

    I don't know... if the Reds need a swing man who can also be effective out of the pen, i'd give the edge to the one who's likely to be better in the part of that role which requires the most innings (i.e. EZ)

    All of this being said, Saarloos probably has a better chance of making the roster.... he costs $1.2M and EZ costs <$400K. I doubt Krivsky took on payroll just to improve the depth at Louisville.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner


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