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Thread: Reds acquire Saarloos, sign Bellhorn

  1. #46
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    Re: Reds acquire Saarloos, sign Bellhorn

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Yep, there was a whole chapter in Moneyball devoted to how Beane gives away quality starters...
    In 9 seasons under Beane's leadership the A's have won exactly one playoff series. That is the same number as the Twins under GM Terry Ryan and they have the same number of Division Titles as the Twins do too. No World Series wins or even appearances for Billy Beane. Billy Beane can compete pretty well with the higher payroll teams but winning is another story. He is also not doing anything that other teams aren't doing. There are other mid to lower payroll teams that are competing as well as the A's. I guess what I'm trying to say is until Billy Beane actually wins something I don't much care what he has to say. Terry Ryan is every bit as good a GM as Beane.

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  3. #47
    Matt's Dad RANDY IN INDY's Avatar
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    Re: Reds acquire Saarloos, sign Bellhorn

    I think a lot of his success, or lack of, will be a result of who he follows in the rotation if, indeed, he does win a starting job.
    Talent is God Given: be humble.
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    Re: Reds acquire Saarloos, sign Bellhorn

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I'm as stoked about this as its humanly possible to be stoked about a guy who has walked more guys than he's struck out over his last three years as a pro while posting stellar xFIPS as 6.19 and 5.75..... woohoooo!!!!!!!!!!

    wow! cool! yaaaaaahhhhhhh! Get ready for a cartwheel.....



    Ouch! (bottom jaw just hit the floor)......

    Yep, there was a whole chapter in Moneyball devoted to how Beane gives away quality starters...

    Seriously, he's much closer to back end fodder that will be sweating to beat out Elizardo as the number 5 placeholder until Homer shows up in July. This gives the Reds some depth...think Linvingston, Elizardo....Saarloos....
    Opp!!! Use of the rolleyes!!! Jojo sarcasm is a phase, not a way of life.
    "Don't trust any statistics you did not fake yourself."--Winston Churchill

  5. #49
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    Re: Reds acquire Saarloos, sign Bellhorn

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Yep, there was a whole chapter in Moneyball devoted to how Beane gives away quality starters...
    :harang:
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

  6. #50
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Reds acquire Saarloos, sign Bellhorn

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Yep, there was a whole chapter in Moneyball devoted to how Beane gives away quality starters...
    Didn't he let Harrang and Bonderman slip through his fingers?

    And no, I'm not saying Saarloos is either one of them. But Beene hasn't been perfect in deciding which pitchers to let walk.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

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    Re: Reds acquire Saarloos, sign Bellhorn

    Quote Originally Posted by Handofdeath View Post
    In 9 seasons under Beane's leadership the A's have won exactly one playoff series. That is the same number as the Twins under GM Terry Ryan and they have the same number of Division Titles as the Twins do too. No World Series wins or even appearances for Billy Beane. Billy Beane can compete pretty well with the higher payroll teams but winning is another story. He is also not doing anything that other teams aren't doing. There are other mid to lower payroll teams that are competing as well as the A's. I guess what I'm trying to say is until Billy Beane actually wins something I don't much care what he has to say. Terry Ryan is every bit as good a GM as Beane.
    Thats an interesting take.... 825 wins in 9 yrs is the picture of overrated...
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  8. #52
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds acquire Saarloos, sign Bellhorn

    I'm all for picking up cheap longshots like Saarloos. But he walks too many (3.93/9 last year), gives-up too many HR (1.41/9 in Oakland's pitching paradise), doesn't K enough (3.86/9 last year) and allows too many baserunners (WHIPs of 1.60, 1.40 and 1.66 the last 3 years running).

    If they could have gotten Saarloos for DFAs like Harris or Olmedo ok, or a minor league journeyman like Michael Gosling or Eric Junge ok, or as a token return in a Salary Dump for say a Milton or Cormier ok. But for this team to trade a young cheap minor leaguer with options and a chance to play a role for cheap for a few years is too much to pay.

    Saarloos will struggle to make the team IMO. Bad Deal.
    Last edited by mth123; 01-23-2007 at 10:23 PM.

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    Re: Reds acquire Saarloos, sign Bellhorn

    Does anyone outside of me think this is a precursor to a bigger move? Saarloos was supposively Oaklands numbers five starter, or a very good case at making this..

    Something about this move screams "more to come", excuse me for being pumped before but if Saarloos comes back to the NL (He original pitched for Houston) and knocks half a run or a full run off his era due to the pretty timid division he'd be pitching in.. Doesn't this still qualify as a good trade for the Reds? We got a young, decent arm for 1.2 million dollars. He might not be Pedro circa 2000, but is he better than running out a under-devolped Bailey, an always injured Belisle or Victor "Please hit me" Santos?

    So he's failed in the american league, don't you think switching back and facing weaker competition might help him? Im not saying he's going to perform a miracle and win the Cy young, but league average is a plus expecially for 1.2 mill in todays market?

    But hey, we can always sign more over-aged relievers and Conine.
    "For every moment of triumph, for every instance of beauty, many souls must be trampled."
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  10. #54
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    Re: Reds acquire Saarloos, sign Bellhorn

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    Didn't he let Harrang and Bonderman slip through his fingers?
    Harang was sent to Cincy for Guillen who helped Oakland to 103 wins that year where he had an OPS of 1.116 for them in the postseason....

    As for Bonderman, several teams have been fooled by Pena and it's not exactly like they let him go at a time pitching was a weakenss in their organisation. If a GM can go 9 years and only be criticized for 1 arm that got away, I bet he sleeps well at night.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Reds acquire Saarloos, sign Bellhorn

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Thats an interesting take.... 825 wins in 9 yrs is the picture of overrated...
    I don't recall using the "overrated." Moneyball is a great read but to treat him as some genius that has accomplished more than he actually has is wrong. I have no problem with his methods or anything like that but the fact is he has not made it to the World Series and doesn't deserve the worship that some give him.

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    Re: Reds acquire Saarloos, sign Bellhorn

    Quote Originally Posted by Handofdeath View Post
    I don't recall using the "overrated." Moneyball is a great read but to treat him as some genius that has accomplished more than he actually has is wrong. I have no problem with his methods or anything like that but the fact is he has not made it to the World Series and doesn't deserve the worship that some give him.
    paraphrased: "I'm not saying he's overrated, it's just that people who don't think he's overrated, think too highly of him."

    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  13. #57
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: Reds acquire Saarloos, sign Bellhorn

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    If they could have gotten Saarloos for DFAs like Harris or Olmedo ok, or a minor league journeyman like Michael Gosling or Eric Junge ok, or as a token return in a Salary Dump for say a Milton or Cormier ok. But for this team to trade a young cheap minor leaguer with options and a chance to play a role for cheap for a few years is too much to pay.
    Now, I'm not all that impressed with Saarloos either, but I disagree with your premise here. Shafer's probably just as long a shot to be anything more than Just Another Bullpen Guy as Saarloos is to hold down a rotation spot on merit, and if I'm going to roll the dice, I'll take the starter at $1.2 million over the reliever at $400,000 every time. The marginal cost of finding starting pitchers is just so much higher.
    For those who believe, no proof is necessary. For those who don't believe, no proof is possible

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    Re: Reds acquire Saarloos, sign Bellhorn

    Quote Originally Posted by Dracodave View Post
    Does anyone outside of me think this is a precursor to a bigger move?
    Everything Krivsky does is a precursor to a bigger move. Until he goes dumpster-diving again. And again. And again.

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    Re: Reds acquire Saarloos, sign Bellhorn

    Yeah, Shafer is overvalued on these boards while Medlock is undervalued. Medlock has a better physical upside in the pen(why he was moved there) and a better breaking pitch. Shafer is just a spare part that figures to be a long reliever if he makes it while Medlock may be a setup man at some point.

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    Re: Reds acquire Saarloos, sign Bellhorn

    Quote Originally Posted by IslandRed View Post
    Now, I'm not all that impressed with Saarloos either, but I disagree with your premise here. Shafer's probably just as long a shot to be anything more than Just Another Bullpen Guy as Saarloos is to hold down a rotation spot on merit, and if I'm going to roll the dice, I'll take the starter at $1.2 million over the reliever at $400,000 every time. The marginal cost of finding starting pitchers is just so much higher.
    #5 starters aren't that rare or difficult to pick up.....
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner


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