PECOTA Answers Six Questions About the NL Central
Hmmm ... If the kid can pull that off it'd be interesting. That WHIP is a bit scary though.Wednesday, January 24, 2007
3:08:00 AM EST PECOTA Answers Six Questions About the NL Central
Baseball Prospectus released its PECOTA projections for the 2007 season this week. PECOTA is an acronym for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, and for my money they're the best in the projection business because they utilize such a comprehensive variety of factors in their predictions ... everything from minor and major league track record to handedness and body type.
In honor of one of my favorite releases of the year, I'll cruise around baseball's six divisions answering a series of questions with the PECOTA database. One note of caution, PECOTA is notoriously conservative with stats like ERA, HR, Wins and some of the more basic metrics, so if your favorite player's stat line is a little less than what you expect, don't be alarmed.
Let's look at the NL Central.
[1-5 removed by gonelong for brevity]
6. Where should Homer Bailey start the season?
Phillip Hughes is the top pitching prospect in baseball, followed closely by Bailey. Though Cincy's pitching has improved with the Bronson Arroyo trade and the development of Aaron Harang, they could sure use a potential ace. Bailey is projected to toss 129 innings, with 119 Ks, 66 BB, a 1.46 WHIP and a 4.64 ERA. The Reds can probably afford to wait on Bailey, who's only 21 and doesn't project to be a real impact arm quite yet. He's also projected to allow 18 taters. Wayne Krivsky should wait a little while longer, he'll be worth it.