PECOTA Answers Six Questions About the NL Central

[gonelong]

PECOTA Answers Six Questions About the NL Central

Wednesday, January 24, 2007
3:08:00 AM EST PECOTA Answers Six Questions About the NL Central
Baseball Prospectus released its PECOTA projections for the 2007 season this week. PECOTA is an acronym for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, and for my money they're the best in the projection business because they utilize such a comprehensive variety of factors in their predictions ... everything from minor and major league track record to handedness and body type.
In honor of one of my favorite releases of the year, I'll cruise around baseball's six divisions answering a series of questions with the PECOTA database. One note of caution, PECOTA is notoriously conservative with stats like ERA, HR, Wins and some of the more basic metrics, so if your favorite player's stat line is a little less than what you expect, don't be alarmed.

Let's look at the NL Central.

[1-5 removed by gonelong for brevity]

6. Where should Homer Bailey start the season?
Phillip Hughes is the top pitching prospect in baseball, followed closely by Bailey. Though Cincy's pitching has improved with the Bronson Arroyo trade and the development of Aaron Harang, they could sure use a potential ace. Bailey is projected to toss 129 innings, with 119 Ks, 66 BB, a 1.46 WHIP and a 4.64 ERA. The Reds can probably afford to wait on Bailey, who's only 21 and doesn't project to be a real impact arm quite yet. He's also projected to allow 18 taters. Wayne Krivsky should wait a little while longer, he'll be worth it.

Hmmm ... If the kid can pull that off it'd be interesting. That WHIP is a bit scary though.

GL

[DannyB]

Is that projection for the Reds or Bats?

[dougdirt]

Reds

[terminator]

Forget waiting. Get him up here in 2007 and let him get that year of experience. Then in 2008 we still have Harang, Arroyo, an "experienced" Bailey and Milton's money to spend.

[Bigredfan#1]

I would not trade Bailey for Hughes!! Hughes is good but I think Bailey will be a more dominant pitcher!!!!

[dougdirt]

Hughes has more polish right now, and is probably more ready to succeed in the majors due to his better control. Bailey however will be the better pitcher by 2008 thanks to his better fastball and better curve.

[dougdirt]

While we are at it.... I think the projection of 4.6bb/9 and 1.26HR/9 is a little out there considering he went 3.24bb/9 and 0.45HR/9 last season. I get where PECOTA comes from, but it just seems a little off in my mind.

[Heath]

Forget waiting. Get him up here in 2007 and let him get that year of experience. Then in 2008 we still have Harang, Arroyo, an "experienced" Bailey and Milton's money to spend.

I'd rather save Bailey until '08, get rid of Miltie's cash and then go bonkers.

[edabbs44]

I'd rather save Bailey until '08, get rid of Miltie's cash and then go bonkers.

Milty's cash couldn't even afford Meche this season...I don't see bonkers happening anytime soon.

[jmcclain19]

While we are at it.... I think the projection of 4.6bb/9 and 1.26HR/9 is a little out there considering he went 3.24bb/9 and 0.45HR/9 last season. I get where PECOTA comes from, but it just seems a little off in my mind.

Justin Verlander's minor league rate stats
1.98BB/9, 10.36K/9, 6.17H/9, 0.30HR/9, 0.91WHIP

Justin Verlander's major league rate stats
2.96BB/9, 5.97K/9, 9.21H/9, 1.00HR/9, 1.35WHIP

Pretty much a dead on comparison for the "If Homer Bailey threw 120IP for the Reds in 2007" PECOTA line.

[HumnHilghtFreel]

Forget waiting. Get him up here in 2007 and let him get that year of experience. Then in 2008 we still have Harang, Arroyo, an "experienced" Bailey and Milton's money to spend.

At what point in this year would you like to bring him up though? You've got to figure the way his arm is going to be nursed with a strict IP count he wouldn't get a "full season" of work. Do you bring him up immediately and then have to make a decision to shut him down late in the year. Or do you put him in AAA and bring him up midway and stick him in the pen or something like that?

[terminator]

JMHO, make him the 5th starter from the start and put him on a strict pitch count. Give him all of the off days you would give a bad fifth starter. Let the long reliever (Belisle?) cover the extra innings in his short games. If by some miracle they make the playoffs then sit him down and just use Harang, Arroyo and your next best pitcher. Most teams only use three or four pitchers in the playoff series anyway. (Milton's a free agent in 2009. If he's pitching well run him and his arm out there every day. )

I'd get him up here in 2007, because he's going to need a year of experience before we see if he'll really be a star. If we wait until 2008, then he'll be "ready" in 2009 and Harang and Arroyo might be gone.

[Redsland]

(Milton's a free agent in 2009.

Whoa, whoa, whoa!

Milton is a free agent after this season. THIS ONE!

Whew. Now I feel better.

[westofyou]

PECOTA would have hated Gary Nolan in 1967

[terminator]

Whoa, whoa, whoa!

Milton is a free agent after this season. THIS ONE!

Whew. Now I feel better.

Okay, fair enough. That was one scary typo.