I think it's worth the attempt to make this trade because if we get the 2005 Saarloos in either 2007 or 2008, then he'll be a solid #3 starter, and that would make giving up the potential of a Shafer, who has a chance to be better than Saarloos.Originally Posted by Bill
Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."
Nice projection... For Aaron Harang, though the IP's are a little low for Harang.
wait, did you mean Saarloos?
BWAH hahahahaha.
not even in his best year. not even if he got permission from the league to take steroids and HGH.
BTW, the K's, BB's and HR's you don't care about are what result in QS's, OPSA, and even IP to a degree.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
Here's a pretty glaring one:
Ramirez' OPS in 2006 vs RH's was a horrid .817 and against LH's an astronomical .847 ......that was fun to watch.
Saarloos' OPS in 2005 vs RH's was a respectable .753 for someone who started 26 games, and against LH's was an impressive .716 ....that is something fun to watch!
Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."
Make your own predictions right now for IP, ERA, QS's, and OPSA, and we'll look at things at the end of the year and compare. It should be fun.
Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."
Actually I have two quibbles with this statement.
First, Ramirez was horrible in August. He was very respectable in the 16 starts preceeding that. In fact, he was a large reason that the Reds were competitive up to August.
Ramirez thru July '06:
ERA: 4.25; FIP: 3.85; K/9: 6.1; BB/9: 1.9; GB%:43; FB%: 34; LD%: 23.3; HR/FB: 9.5; 10 QS in 16 starts
Second, Ramirez was not worse than Milton.
Ramirez '06:
ERA: 5.37; xFIP: 4.67; K/9:5.97; BB/9: 2.51; GB%:44; FB%:33; LD%:23; HR/FB:13.5;
Milton '06:
ERA:5.19; xFIP: 5.56; K/9: 5.31; BB/9: 2.48; GB%:31; FB%:50; LD%:19; HR/FB:11.2 ;
In fact, even though Elizardo hit a wall in August, overall he was a more effective pitcher.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
In a park that suppresses HR's at age 27.
EZ pitches in a veritable wind tunnel. and had better K rates at age 23. long term, short term, if EZ's arm is ok by ST, it isn't even close. Sarrloos is on a decline, and couldn't K Adam Dunn. Now that is saying something.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
Impossible to make projections about a # 5 starter, especially with Narron at the helm.
I'll project this, If EZ is healthy there is no way Saarloos beats him out for a rotation spot.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
Back up your opinions with predictions.
Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."
oh yes. You think Jerry is going to cut Saarloos if it's even close? EZ can be sent down, I don't know about Saarloos. Does he have any options left?
"My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton
The only significant number there is the ERA and Ramirez' was worse. But wer'e talking about a couple of pitchers with very bad numbers.
Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."
Im sure it wouldnt be to hard for Saarloos to K Adam Dunn.
You bring up a great point. Pecota pretty much thinks the same for for Ramirez, Belisle, Lohse and Milton though Ramirez has the highest improve rate and Milton the lowest. On the other hand, Pecota hates Saarloos predicting he is almost all downside (collapse and attrition are both higher than his improve while his breakout is really, really low).
Take a soft-tossing guy with no out pitch who relies upon his control yet has walked more guys than he has struck out over the last three years and guess what kind of upside you'd think Saarloos has.... that's what Pecota thinks....he's not long for the league.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Saarloos couldn't K me. yes, he's that bad.
Ok, but it's a silly exercise.
Assuming EZ is healthy, and if he is, he's a much better option than Saarloos, and he wins the #5 slot outright I see him as posting the following:
26 Starts, 14 QS, 170 IP 4.30ish ERA
With his K rate that would put him around 130K's. Saarloos ever post a season with more than 55?
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
Let's have some fun, jojo. Screw Pecota! Let's see what you project.
Make a prediction on IP and OPS and ERA for next year.
High IP means he beat out others in Spring Training and outperformed them.
Lower OPS means he kept runners off the bases and kept from advancing the ones who were on towards home.
Lower ERA means he kept from bunching all of his numbers into one inning and spread out the hits and that he made pitches when it counted.
Don't be afraid to stick your neck out. Have fun and make a prediction and we'll look back it at the end of the year and laugh.
Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."
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