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Thread: Reds trade for A's pitcher Saarloos

  1. #166
    Member Eric_Davis's Avatar
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    Re: Reds trade for A's pitcher Saarloos

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill View Post
    ED, I am quite aware of trade dynamics. My point was that the A's liked Neu as well, a similar soft-tosser that got results as a minor leaguer. Neu put up fairly good numbers for the A's- for one year- and then fell off the face of the earth. The very same could happen with Shafer or he could have a longer go at it.

    Regardless, Saarloos will not improve the Reds rotation but rather improve its depth at mediocrity. Is that worth the potential higher upside you speak of in the player traded. Yes, if Shafer is Mike Neu, but either way Saarloos is not the pitcher the Reds needed to add to the rotation to make any difference in the upcoming season.
    I think it's worth the attempt to make this trade because if we get the 2005 Saarloos in either 2007 or 2008, then he'll be a solid #3 starter, and that would make giving up the potential of a Shafer, who has a chance to be better than Saarloos.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

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  3. #167
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Reds trade for A's pitcher Saarloos

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_Davis View Post
    Let's make some predictions, but let's keep it simple. I don't care about walks, strikeouts, HR's...

    How many innings pitched, quality starts, OPS, and where will his ERA finish (I know, ERA is not that important)?

    Is there a way to bookmark this thread to come back to it in October?

    Here's mine:

    181 innings pitched

    15 quality starts (6+ innings with 3 or fewer earned runs)

    752 OPS

    3.92 ERA
    Nice projection... For Aaron Harang, though the IP's are a little low for Harang.

    wait, did you mean Saarloos?


    BWAH hahahahaha.

    not even in his best year. not even if he got permission from the league to take steroids and HGH.

    BTW, the K's, BB's and HR's you don't care about are what result in QS's, OPSA, and even IP to a degree.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  4. #168
    Member Eric_Davis's Avatar
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    Re: Reds trade for A's pitcher Saarloos

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    What numbers? name one thing Sarrloos did in 2005 better than EZ did in 2006? Other than ERA and W's (the first is deceiving, the second is a team dependent stat) name one thing he did better.
    Here's a pretty glaring one:

    Ramirez' OPS in 2006 vs RH's was a horrid .817 and against LH's an astronomical .847 ......that was fun to watch.

    Saarloos' OPS in 2005 vs RH's was a respectable .753 for someone who started 26 games, and against LH's was an impressive .716 ....that is something fun to watch!
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

  5. #169
    Member Eric_Davis's Avatar
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    Re: Reds trade for A's pitcher Saarloos

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Nice projection... For Aaron Harang, though the IP's are a little low for Harang.

    wait, did you mean Saarloos?


    BWAH hahahahaha.

    not even in his best year. not even if he got permission from the league to take steroids and HGH.

    BTW, the K's, BB's and HR's you don't care about are what result in QS's, OPSA, and even IP to a degree.
    Make your own predictions right now for IP, ERA, QS's, and OPSA, and we'll look at things at the end of the year and compare. It should be fun.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

  6. #170
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    Re: Reds trade for A's pitcher Saarloos

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_Davis View Post
    That makes no sense. Ramirez' 2006 was horrible. It was worse than Milton's and worse than Lohse'.
    Actually I have two quibbles with this statement.

    First, Ramirez was horrible in August. He was very respectable in the 16 starts preceeding that. In fact, he was a large reason that the Reds were competitive up to August.

    Ramirez thru July '06:
    ERA: 4.25; FIP: 3.85; K/9: 6.1; BB/9: 1.9; GB%:43; FB%: 34; LD%: 23.3; HR/FB: 9.5; 10 QS in 16 starts

    Second, Ramirez was not worse than Milton.

    Ramirez '06:
    ERA: 5.37; xFIP: 4.67; K/9:5.97; BB/9: 2.51; GB%:44; FB%:33; LD%:23; HR/FB:13.5;

    Milton '06:
    ERA:5.19; xFIP: 5.56; K/9: 5.31; BB/9: 2.48; GB%:31; FB%:50; LD%:19; HR/FB:11.2 ;

    In fact, even though Elizardo hit a wall in August, overall he was a more effective pitcher.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  7. #171
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Reds trade for A's pitcher Saarloos

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_Davis View Post
    Here's a pretty glaring one:

    Ramirez' OPS in 2006 vs RH's was a horrid .817 and against LH's an astronomical .847 ......that was fun to watch.

    Saarloos' OPS in 2005 vs RH's was a respectable .753 for someone who started 26 games, and against LH's was an impressive .716 ....that is something fun to watch!
    In a park that suppresses HR's at age 27.

    EZ pitches in a veritable wind tunnel. and had better K rates at age 23. long term, short term, if EZ's arm is ok by ST, it isn't even close. Sarrloos is on a decline, and couldn't K Adam Dunn. Now that is saying something.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  8. #172
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    Re: Reds trade for A's pitcher Saarloos

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_Davis View Post
    Make your own predictions right now for IP, ERA, QS's, and OPSA, and we'll look at things at the end of the year and compare. It should be fun.
    Impossible to make projections about a # 5 starter, especially with Narron at the helm.

    I'll project this, If EZ is healthy there is no way Saarloos beats him out for a rotation spot.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  9. #173
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    Re: Reds trade for A's pitcher Saarloos

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Impossible to make projections about a # 5 starter, especially with Narron at the helm.

    I'll project this, If EZ is healthy there is no way Saarloos beats him out for a rotation spot.

    Back up your opinions with predictions.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

  10. #174
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    Re: Reds trade for A's pitcher Saarloos

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Impossible to make projections about a # 5 starter, especially with Narron at the helm.

    I'll project this, If EZ is healthy there is no way Saarloos beats him out for a rotation spot.
    oh yes. You think Jerry is going to cut Saarloos if it's even close? EZ can be sent down, I don't know about Saarloos. Does he have any options left?
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  11. #175
    Member Eric_Davis's Avatar
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    Re: Reds trade for A's pitcher Saarloos

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Actually I have two quibbles with this statement.

    First, Ramirez was horrible in August. He was very respectable in the 16 starts preceeding that. In fact, he was a large reason that the Reds were competitive up to August.

    Ramirez thru July '06:
    ERA: 4.25; FIP: 3.85; K/9: 6.1; BB/9: 1.9; GB%:43; FB%: 34; LD%: 23.3; HR/FB: 9.5; 10 QS in 16 starts

    Second, Ramirez was not worse than Milton.

    Ramirez '06:
    ERA: 5.37; xFIP: 4.67; K/9:5.97; BB/9: 2.51; GB%:44; FB%:33; LD%:23; HR/FB:13.5;

    Milton '06:
    ERA:5.19; xFIP: 5.56; K/9: 5.31; BB/9: 2.48; GB%:31; FB%:50; LD%:19; HR/FB:11.2 ;

    In fact, even though Elizardo hit a wall in August, overall he was a more effective pitcher.
    The only significant number there is the ERA and Ramirez' was worse. But wer'e talking about a couple of pitchers with very bad numbers.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

  12. #176
    Member CTA513's Avatar
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    Re: Reds trade for A's pitcher Saarloos

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Sarrloos is on a decline, and couldn't K Adam Dunn. Now that is saying something.
    Im sure it wouldnt be to hard for Saarloos to K Adam Dunn.

  13. #177
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    Re: Reds trade for A's pitcher Saarloos

    Quote Originally Posted by gonelong View Post
    Just wondering, what is the breakout and regression chances of those same pitchers per PECOTA.

    GL
    You bring up a great point. Pecota pretty much thinks the same for for Ramirez, Belisle, Lohse and Milton though Ramirez has the highest improve rate and Milton the lowest. On the other hand, Pecota hates Saarloos predicting he is almost all downside (collapse and attrition are both higher than his improve while his breakout is really, really low).

    Take a soft-tossing guy with no out pitch who relies upon his control yet has walked more guys than he has struck out over the last three years and guess what kind of upside you'd think Saarloos has.... that's what Pecota thinks....he's not long for the league.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  14. #178
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    Re: Reds trade for A's pitcher Saarloos

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_Davis View Post
    The only significant number there is the ERA
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  15. #179
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    Re: Reds trade for A's pitcher Saarloos

    Quote Originally Posted by CTA513 View Post
    Im sure it wouldnt be to hard for Saarloos to K Adam Dunn.
    Saarloos couldn't K me. yes, he's that bad.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_Davis View Post
    Back up your opinions with predictions.
    Ok, but it's a silly exercise.

    Assuming EZ is healthy, and if he is, he's a much better option than Saarloos, and he wins the #5 slot outright I see him as posting the following:

    26 Starts, 14 QS, 170 IP 4.30ish ERA

    With his K rate that would put him around 130K's. Saarloos ever post a season with more than 55?
    Suck it up cupcake.

  16. #180
    Member Eric_Davis's Avatar
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    Re: Reds trade for A's pitcher Saarloos

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    You bring up a great point. Pecota pretty much thinks the same for for Ramirez, Belisle, Lohse and Milton though Ramirez has the highest improve rate and Milton the lowest. On the other hand, Pecota hates Saarloos predicting he is almost all downside (collapse and attrition are both higher than his improve while his breakout is really, really low).

    Take a soft-tossing guy with no out pitch who relies upon his control yet has walked more guys than he has struck out over the last three years and guess what kind of upside you'd think Saarloos has.... that's what Pecota thinks....he's not long for the league.
    Let's have some fun, jojo. Screw Pecota! Let's see what you project.

    Make a prediction on IP and OPS and ERA for next year.

    High IP means he beat out others in Spring Training and outperformed them.

    Lower OPS means he kept runners off the bases and kept from advancing the ones who were on towards home.

    Lower ERA means he kept from bunching all of his numbers into one inning and spread out the hits and that he made pitches when it counted.

    Don't be afraid to stick your neck out. Have fun and make a prediction and we'll look back it at the end of the year and laugh.

    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."


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