Reds trade for A's pitcher Saarloos

[jojo]

Let's make some predictions, but let's keep it simple. I don't care about walks, strikeouts, HR's...

How many innings pitched, quality starts, OPS, and where will his ERA finish (I know, ERA is not that important)?

Is there a way to bookmark this thread to come back to it in October?

Here's mine:

181 innings pitched

15 quality starts (6+ innings with 3 or fewer earned runs)

752 OPS

3.92 ERA

Chone, Marcel and Pecota all wonder what you've been drinking...

[blumj]

Im sure it wouldnt be to hard for Saarloos to K Adam Dunn.

Oh, he has, twice, in only 4 ABs. No BBs, too. And he's gotten Bellhorn 4 times in 12 ABs, also no BBs. Something to build on? Or not.

[Eric_Davis]

Saarloos couldn't K me. yes, he's that bad.



Ok, but it's a silly exercise.

Assuming EZ is healthy, and if he is, he's a much better option than Saarloos, and he wins the #5 slot outright I see him as posting the following:

26 Starts, 14 QS, 170 IP 4.30ish ERA

So, those are EZ's predictions. That's alright. So, you're predicting that Saarloos won't pitch well enough to earn a starter's spot and will thus pitch in the 75-95 inning area, and because he won't pitch well enough, that his ERA will be between 4.70-4.99, and that he won't have any QS's. Does that sound about right? It's just for fun. Let's hope they both do very well.

[IslandRed]

Assuming EZ is healthy, and if he is, he's a much better option than Saarloos, and he wins the #5 slot outright I see him as posting the following:

26 Starts, 14 QS, 170 IP 4.30ish ERA

I think most of us could agree that if Krivsky knew Ramirez was healthy and expected him to improve to the numbers you posted, he probably wouldn't have dealt for Saarloos. So the question becomes, does he know there's a health issue that keeps us from counting on him, or some other reason he believes he won't take that step forward in effectiveness? Or is he just wrong?

[Eric_Davis]

Chone, Marcel and Pecota all wonder what you've been drinking...

True, Jojo, I'm being very optimistic. I'll give you that. But, I'm also hoping that my optimism is based on his 2005 numbers and that the numbers from 2006 were his "Sophomore slump". Pecota's numbers uses computers only. I feel that his third season of being a starter will be at least as good as his first season as a starter.

As TRF noted, he does have to prove it in Spring Training to the managers, and I think he will.

[TRF]

So, those are EZ's predictions. That's alright. So, you're predicting that Saarloos won't pitch well enough to earn a starter's spot and will thus pitch in the 75-95 inning area, and because he won't pitch well enough, that his ERA will be between 4.70-4.99, and that he won't have any QS's. Does that sound about right? It's just for fun. Let's hope they both do very well.

My hope is he's bounced to AAA in ST. He's got zero upside. There isn't anything he does on a mound that warrants consideration as a starter. He's going to get a neck strain watching balls leave the park, and he'll kill the pen in the process.

My real hope is EZ comes to camp completely healed. While in ST, Soto (brought back to work with pitchers again) helps EZ get a little movement on his FB. See, Ramirez can still develop. Saarloos doesn't have a whole lot more to develop. Age in this case is a factor.

[Caveat Emperor]

In fact, even though Elizardo hit a wall in August, overall he was a more effective pitcher.

The $64,000 question is: "Exactly what type of wall did Elizardo hit?"

If it was a fatigue and workload wall, then that is something that can be overcome through additional experience and mileage on the arm. If it was a competitive gap wall (one time through the league showed them everything they needed to know), then there is far less of a chance that it can be overcome.

My hunch is that it is a little bit of A and B. EZ's big knock in the minors was that he didn't have any really great pitches and lacked the ability to throw a put-away pitch with any great regularity. His fastball is serviceable, but not the fireball with movement that you'd like to see out of a guy with his diminished stature. I think the more time he spent in the bigs, the more those flaws became apparent.

I'd like to see the kid succeed, but I've been pretty low on him since I watched him pitch in the minors after the trade, and I really haven't seen anything that makes me think he is anything better than borderline #4/#5. His numbers weren't particularly special or awe-inspiring last season, so I really don't see the justification for the love he gets around here.

[jojo]

Let's have some fun, jojo. Screw Pecota! Let's see what you project.

Make a prediction on IP and OPS and ERA for next year.

High IP means he beat out others in Spring Training and outperformed them.

Lower OPS means he kept runners off the bases and kept from advancing the ones who were on towards home.

Lower ERA means he kept from bunching all of his numbers into one inning and spread out the hits and that he made pitches when it counted.

Don't be afraid to stick your neck out. Have fun and make a prediction and we'll look back it at the end of the year and laugh.

Well, truthfully, i'm not that interested in what an opponents OPS is against a given pitcher nor do I really care about ERA. Concerning IP, I have no idea. But I can tell you how I think things will out. Here's what I'd guess the opening day rotation will be:

1. Harang
2. Arroyo
3. Lohse
4. Milton
5. Ramirez

Maybe Ramirez gets 100 innings until Homer gets called up. If EZ sucks, then the innings will be split between him and whatever turd Narron favors at the moment. Maybe Saarloos has the edge as favored turd because the Reds seem to favor using him out of the pen too.

[jojo]

True, Jojo, I'm being very optimistic. I'll give you that. But, I'm also hoping that my optimism is based on his 2005 numbers and that the numbers from 2006 were his "Sophomore slump". Pecota's numbers uses computers only. I feel that his third season of being a starter will be at least as good as his first season as a starter.

As TRF noted, he does have to prove it in Spring Training to the managers, and I think he will.

But in a way that's like arguing that the Reds should've signed Franklin because if he posted numbers similar to his '03 season, Franklin would be the Reds #3 starter.....

[TRF]

I think most of us could agree that if Krivsky knew Ramirez was healthy and expected him to improve to the numbers you posted, he probably wouldn't have dealt for Saarloos. So the question becomes, does he know there's a health issue that keeps us from counting on him, or some other reason he believes he won't take that step forward in effectiveness? Or is he just wrong?

Could be any of the three honestly. but if EZ isn't healthy, I'd rather see Victor Santos than Saarloos.

[Johnny Footstool]

Im sure it wouldnt be to hard for Saarloos to K Adam Dunn.

Maybe if Dunn were blindfolded and spotted Saarloos a strike...

[TRF]

The $64,000 question is: "Exactly what type of wall did Elizardo hit?"

If it was a fatigue and workload wall, then that is something that can be overcome through additional experience and mileage on the arm. If it was a competitive gap wall (one time through the league showed them everything they needed to know), then there is far less of a chance that it can be overcome.

My hunch is that it is a little bit of A and B. EZ's big knock in the minors was that he didn't have any really great pitches and lacked the ability to throw a put-away pitch with any great regularity. His fastball is serviceable, but not the fireball with movement that you'd like to see out of a guy with his diminished stature. I think the more time he spent in the bigs, the more those flaws became apparent.

I'd like to see the kid succeed, but I've been pretty low on him since I watched him pitch in the minors after the trade, and I really haven't seen anything that makes me think he is anything better than borderline #4/#5. His numbers weren't particularly special or awe-inspiring last season, so I really don't see the justification for the love he gets around here.

What I liked was that he really seemed to take to what Soto was teaching. He has very good control, he just needs a little wrinkle on his FB.

Well, truthfully, i'm not that interested in what an opponents OPS is against a given pitcher nor do I really care about ERA. Concerning IP, I have no idea. But I can tell you how I think things will out. Here's what I'd guess the opening day rotation will be:

1. Harang
2. Arroyo
3. Lohse
4. Milton
5. Ramirez

Maybe Ramirez gets 100 innings until Homer gets called up. If EZ sucks, then the innings will be split between him and whatever turd Narron favors at the moment. Maybe Saarloos has the edge as favored turd because the Reds seem to favor using him out of the pen too.

If EZ can get a little movement on his FB I think he outperforms Milton and Lohse. Now is that saying a lot? no. But then I hope it ends up saying a lot.

[Eric_Davis]

But in a way that's like arguing that the Reds should've signed Franklin because if he posted numbers similar to his '03 season, Franklin would be the Reds #3 starter.....

That's three years removed with many other seasons surrounding it...nothing even similar.

[Eric_Davis]

TRF and Jojo...your writing did make me laugh. I'm not being facetious. I really mean it was well written and I liked the humor.

[jojo]

If EZ can get a little movement on his FB I think he outperforms Milton and Lohse. Now is that saying a lot? no. But then I hope it ends up saying a lot.

Pecota thinks Lohse and EZ could be twins in '07 and it thinks Milton might be their baby sister.....

I was more predicting what Narron might do with the rotation....