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Thread: Reds trade for A's pitcher Saarloos

  1. #196
    Member Eric_Davis's Avatar
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    Re: Reds trade for A's pitcher Saarloos

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Well, truthfully, i'm not that interested in what an opponents OPS is against a given pitcher nor do I really care about ERA. Concerning IP, I have no idea. But I can tell you how I think things will out. Here's what I'd guess the opening day rotation will be:

    1. Harang
    2. Arroyo
    3. Lohse
    4. Milton
    5. Ramirez

    Maybe Ramirez gets 100 innings until Homer gets called up. If EZ sucks, then the innings will be split between him and whatever turd Narron favors at the moment. Maybe Saarloos has the edge as favored turd because the Reds seem to favor using him out of the pen too.
    Sometimes, stats can get way too complicated. If opponents aren't getting on base, and they aren't hitting it hard when they do (that's OPS), and they aren't scoring a lot of runs (that's ERA), then a pitcher is doing his job.

    Who cares about the rest of the stats?
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

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  3. #197
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: Reds trade for A's pitcher Saarloos

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_Davis View Post
    Sometimes, stats can get way too complicated. If opponents aren't getting on base, and they aren't hitting it hard when they do (that's OPS), and they aren't scoring a lot of runs (that's ERA), then a pitcher is doing his job.

    Who cares about the rest of the stats?
    Everyone should care.

    You should understand the reason why opponents aren't getting on base or scoring runs. Is it because of the pitcher striking out batters and not walking anyone? Or is it because he's been giving up screaming liners that happen to be hit right at fielders? Is the pitcher doing his job, or is he just getting lucky?

    You're looking at the end result, but you also need to understand the means by which that result was achieved.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  4. #198
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Reds trade for A's pitcher Saarloos

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool View Post
    Everyone should care.

    You should understand the reason why opponents aren't getting on base or scoring runs. Is it because of the pitcher striking out batters and not walking anyone? Or is it because he's been giving up screaming liners that happen to be hit right at fielders? Is the pitcher doing his job, or is he just getting lucky?

    You're looking at the end result, but you also need to understand the means by which that result was achieved.
    darn tootin'!

    And looking at Saarloos over the past two seasons, I'd say the man has sacrificed a few chickens before starts. Even Jimmy Haynes had better peripherals in 2002, Haynes dream season.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  5. #199
    Member CTA513's Avatar
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    Re: Reds trade for A's pitcher Saarloos

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool View Post
    Maybe if Dunn were blindfolded and spotted Saarloos a strike...
    Dunn is 1 for 4 with 2 Ks against him.
    Dunn must have been blindfolded when he went against Saarloos.

  6. #200
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: Reds trade for A's pitcher Saarloos

    Quote Originally Posted by CTA513 View Post
    Dunn is 1 for 4 with 2 Ks against him.
    Dunn must have been blindfolded when he went against Saarloos.
    Hyperbole.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  7. #201
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    Re: Reds trade for A's pitcher Saarloos

    Quote Originally Posted by IslandRed View Post
    I generally give a lot of weight to defense-independent pitching stats, but Saarloos' ERA has consistently beaten the xFIPs you're showing. When a guy has a pretty consistent history of allowing fewer runs than peripherals or defense-independent measures say he should, I look for reasons why. What I found with Saarloos are two things, one marginal and one noteworthy:

    1. While his home-run rate is nothing special, suggesting his mistakes get crushed, as a groundball pitcher his overall extra-base hit rate seems to be lower than the typical guy in his class. Not a ton lower, but a little lower.

    2. Saarloos is better with runners on than with the bases empty. Not just a little better, a lot better. That's not normal at all. The typical MLB hurler is slightly better (about 30 OPS points, roughly) with the bases empty; from 2004-2006, Saarloos was better with runners on to the tune of 80 OPS points. DIPS, xFIP, etc. are blunt tools that assume the distribution of events is random, and in most cases that assumption is good enough. But there are such things as pitchers who are better or worse than the average bear at pitching out of trouble, and Saarloos appears to be one of the better ones.

    Pretty excellent post. Especially vis. the point: DIPS, xFIP.

  8. #202
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Reds trade for A's pitcher Saarloos

    IslandRed's post to me at least suggests Saarloos might make a good reliever. He's not by any means a good starter.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  9. #203
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    Re: Reds trade for A's pitcher Saarloos

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    IslandRed's post to me at least suggests Saarloos might make a good reliever. He's not by any means a good starter.
    Simply put, this team needs innings like Mr. Furley needs silk kerchiefs. Doesn't matter where they come from, really.

  10. #204
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Reds trade for A's pitcher Saarloos

    Quote Originally Posted by IslandRed View Post
    I generally give a lot of weight to defense-independent pitching stats, but Saarloos' ERA has consistently beaten the xFIPs you're showing. When a guy has a pretty consistent history of allowing fewer runs than peripherals or defense-independent measures say he should, I look for reasons why. What I found with Saarloos are two things, one marginal and one noteworthy:

    1. While his home-run rate is nothing special, suggesting his mistakes get crushed, as a groundball pitcher his overall extra-base hit rate seems to be lower than the typical guy in his class. Not a ton lower, but a little lower.

    2. Saarloos is better with runners on than with the bases empty. Not just a little better, a lot better. That's not normal at all. The typical MLB hurler is slightly better (about 30 OPS points, roughly) with the bases empty; from 2004-2006, Saarloos was better with runners on to the tune of 80 OPS points. DIPS, xFIP, etc. are blunt tools that assume the distribution of events is random, and in most cases that assumption is good enough. But there are such things as pitchers who are better or worse than the average bear at pitching out of trouble, and Saarloos appears to be one of the better ones.
    Great post.

  11. #205
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Reds trade for A's pitcher Saarloos

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    You do if they're under 6' tall and lacking a dominant fastball.

    I'd like to see the Reds get something out of EZ while there are still people out there who think he can be an effective starter.
    I think EZ's value will be determined by what we get via trade.

    He's worth more to us not wearing a uniform in the Reds organization than he is wearing a RiverBats jersey.

  12. #206
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    Re: Reds trade for A's pitcher Saarloos

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    I think EZ's value will be determined by what we get via trade.

    He's worth more to us not wearing a uniform in the Reds organization than he is wearing a RiverBats jersey.
    I agree.

    But I'm in the same camp as it relates to H. Bailey. I don't think his value will ever be higher than it is at this very moment.

  13. #207
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    Re: Reds trade for A's pitcher Saarloos

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Simply put, this team needs innings like Mr. Furley needs silk kerchiefs. Doesn't matter where they come from, really.
    Oh, he can give you innings. not quality ones though. And there isn't much to suggest he can. He's the worst kind of #5 starter. His 2006 season looked a lot like Jose Lima's 2005 season minus the sparkling 4.27 K/9

    Anyone here clamoring for Lima Time?
    Suck it up cupcake.

  14. #208
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    Re: Reds trade for A's pitcher Saarloos

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Oh, he can give you innings. not quality ones though. And there isn't much to suggest he can. He's the worst kind of #5 starter. His 2006 season looked a lot like Jose Lima's 2005 season minus the sparkling 4.27 K/9

    Anyone here clamoring for Lima Time?
    I'm thinking he'll help most as a reliever/swing starter. A la Jared Fernandez.

  15. #209
    All dyslexics must untie!
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    Re: Reds trade for A's pitcher Saarloos

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    Seems to me there was another farm system guy (not Wagner) who was part of a trade that went on to do nothing somewhere else (after people said we let a gem get away).
    Michael Neu?
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