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Thread: Bryan Smith; Homer Bailey>Phil Hughes and why

  1. #1
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Bryan Smith; Homer Bailey>Phil Hughes and why

    Bryan Smith, who recently wrote SI.coms top 75 prospects list had this to say to response of an email he recieved
    How can you rank Homer Bailey ahead of Phillip Hughes. Looking at their statistics side by side, Hughes' numbers are better in every respect. And if you say that it's the stuff that defines the greater prospect, the difference in stuff between Hughes and Bailey is minimal with Bailey having slightly more velocity although Hughes has a heavier ball. Further, if it is stuff that defines the prospect than I'm certain you can find a myriad of prospects who have the same stuff as Bailey and Hughes. The key than must be the marriage between stuff and control that translates into success and therefore the better prospect. Isn't that the embodiment of Phillip Hughes? The remarkable maturity (pitching knowledge), super stuff, and superior control all combine to create one of the best pitching prospects we've ever seen. The part of that equation that Homer Bailey holds is super stuff and improving control. Taking into account the previous argument, you can only conclude that Phillip Hughes is indeed the better pitching prospect.
    Bryans response
    By a power of about eight million, this type of question (dealing with these two prospects) was the most popular I received, speaking to the fabulous intensity of Yankee fans. Still, its funny, because the difference between the two players is totally negligible. Both prospects are generational, both are top tier, and both project as aces in the Major Leagues (the only two in the minors). So, I don't really think the individual ranking is important, but I will do Bailey the hnor of defending him, since he was ultimately my choice.

    As far as "stuff" goes, I disagree with the question, I don't think you can find other stuff like Bailey's or Hughes' in the minor leagues. Someone like Jason Neighborgall might have impressive raw stuff, but it doesn't compare to these two players, as he has no idea where it is going. Say what you will about Homer Bailey's command, but it hardly had an adverse effect on his performance in 2006. In the end, I decided to label the Reds prospect with the minors best stuff, and I again, I disagree with the e-mail about how he labels their fastballs. I would not say that Hughes has more life than Bailey, but instead more sink, as Bailey's exploding four-seamer has plenty of life. I love Hughes' two-seamer, however, so the fastball difference is about as negligible as their overall ranking.

    But, again, why Bailey? What overcomes Hughes' edge in command? Two things: breaking ball and health. Now, let me remind, I'm not claiming Hughes is poor in either category at all. His curveball is fantastic, but my reports of Bailey's hook were phenomenal. The pitch might be a 75 on the 20-80 scouting scale soon, and it should generate a lot of swings-and-misses at the Major League level. While Hughes is long removed from past shoulder soreness, he is still more susceptible for future injury than Bailey.

    Now listen: I believe Philip Hughes will not only pitch in the Majors in 2007, but I believe he'll start admirably in the playoffs. I believe he will anchor the Yanks' rotation for years to come. And I also believe the same for Homer Bailey's, who has enough star power to reinvigorate the city of Cincinnati.

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    GO XAVIER! toledodan's Avatar
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    Re: Bryan Smith; Homer Bailey>Phil Hughes and why

    great article. the nice thing about homer bailey its not just reds fans that pimp him as the second coming. almost everyone that has seen him agree he's that good. my heart says start him opening day but my head tells me let him take his time to get here.
    there's nothing like bowling a 300 game! 13 now and retired.


    Ricky henderson has a higher OBP than C. patterson and he's retired. C. Trent 6-14-2008

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    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: Bryan Smith; Homer Bailey>Phil Hughes and why

    I just hope the Reds resist the urge to call him up until June, and when they do treat him as a fifth starter. Limit his innings at Louisville. I don't want to see them abuse that prized arm. My ultimate fear is that the Reds use him like Justin Verlander, and let him pitch to many important innings, especially if they serendipidiously wind up in another playoff race, while also trying to stay above .500 like last year. Narron had no qualms about abusing Harang, Arroyo, and especially Ramirez (even though that was probably because he didn't really care for Ramirez). I think he would be tempted to abuse Homer, and Homer is the kind of guy that will run a high pitch count anyway.

    Coddle thy pitchers
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Bryan Smith; Homer Bailey>Phil Hughes and why

    I would imagine even at the Major League level, Homer will be on a strict pitch count. I doubt his pitch count is any higher than 105 pitches this season.

  6. #5
    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: Bryan Smith; Homer Bailey>Phil Hughes and why

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I would imagine even at the Major League level, Homer will be on a strict pitch count. I doubt his pitch count is any higher than 105 pitches this season.
    I fully expect that, I guess I am looking at total innings. That study that was on here after the world series about young pitchers and the detrimental affects of rapidly increasing innings pitched per season was certainly scary.
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

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    Member Topcat's Avatar
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    Re: Bryan Smith; Homer Bailey>Phil Hughes and why

    Damn that DanO for taking a HS pitcher in the 1st round
    2006 Redzone mock Draftee's- 1(st) Daniel Bard(redsox), 1(st sup)( Jordan Walden (Angels), 2(nd) rd.- Zach Britton(Orioles), 3(rd) Blair Erickson(Cardinals), 3(rd) Tim Norton( Yankees),(cuz its a Tim Hortons thing

    Pain heals. Chicks dig scars. Glory... lasts forever.

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Bryan Smith; Homer Bailey>Phil Hughes and why

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    I fully expect that, I guess I am looking at total innings. That study that was on here after the world series about young pitchers and the detrimental affects of rapidly increasing innings pitched per season was certainly scary.
    I would say that Homer is on pace to throw about 175-180 innings next season. He threw 138.2 in the regular season and he threw 2 innings in All-Star games, so lets just go with 140 innings. Usually you want to add about 30 innings per year with young players, so with pitch counts I would say that 170 innings for Bailey next year seems to be the target.

  9. #8
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Bryan Smith; Homer Bailey>Phil Hughes and why

    Baily will most probably be babied this year. However wouldn't you want him pitching on every 5th day. As a #5 starter that can vary. Esp if you have an effective rotation the #5 starter may go a few weeks inbetween starts. I can forsee him coming up in june and pitching every fifth day about 5-6 inning each start.

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    Member icehole3's Avatar
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    Re: Bryan Smith; Homer Bailey>Phil Hughes and why

    I agree bucksfan, he must pitch every fifth day and Narron should be closely watched handling him. What he did to Ramirez was inexcusable.

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    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Bryan Smith; Homer Bailey>Phil Hughes and why

    I hope they consider the approach the Red Sox took with Lester last year. They started him at AAA with a strict and low pitch count with the thought that it would keep his innings down and allow him to finish the year with an arm which was not overworked and with the big club. It seemed to be working until the cancer was developed.

  12. #11
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Bryan Smith; Homer Bailey>Phil Hughes and why

    No matter what I read, I just can't get rid of the feeling in my stomach that Homer Bailey = Kerry Wood v2.0. He's gonna come up, dominate, get injured, and fall off the map in the course of about 4 years.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  13. #12
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Bryan Smith; Homer Bailey>Phil Hughes and why

    RMR, you worry to much.

  14. #13
    Moderator Tommyjohn25's Avatar
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    Re: Bryan Smith; Homer Bailey>Phil Hughes and why

    I am absolutely BURSTING at the seams to see this kid pitch every day for the Reds. I am willing to wager that the first day the ball is put into his hand for the big club, it will be the most watched Reds game since at least 1999, probably 1995.
    Benzinger backing and calling! And the 1990 world championship series belongs to the Cincinnati Reds!

  15. #14
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Bryan Smith; Homer Bailey>Phil Hughes and why

    From Will Carroll's chat today:

    Nick (Omaha): Do you like Homer Bailey or Phillip Hughes better for this year and as a 3-yr keeper?

    Will Carroll: Hughes on both counts. Bailey is special, but young pitchers with his mechanics scare the bleep out of me.

  16. #15
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    Re: Bryan Smith; Homer Bailey>Phil Hughes and why

    Yes Carroll, watching Hughes throw would scare the bleep out of me. No wonder he has already had some major shoulder soreness.


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