Bryan Smith; Homer Bailey>Phil Hughes and why

[RedsManRick]

Um, no offense, but there is an awful lot of hype going around for Homer Bailey. Just because the Yankees have a bigger fanbase than the Reds doesn't mean he is being overhyped.

And I hate to mention it, but with what Bailey and Hughes have accomplished and what their ceilings were, wouldn't you be excited about both of them and their ceilings and hype them?

And where pitchers such as Gil Meche get $55 million dollars for just their potential and doing nothing else, the $40 million for Hughes or Bailey isn't all that bad.

How much money did Matsusaka get? Yeah, Hughes is less experienced, but if you don't think the Yankees would pay $10 million per over 4+ years for a 20 year old pitcher who has absolutely blown away his competition, I think you're crazy.

There is a whole lot more money out there than there is talent worth spending it on. The Cubs just paid 11MM for a guy who hasn't thrown a single professional pitch and wasn't even that effective in college.

[TRF]

Going back 2 years and saying that's the player that is coming my way is no less stupid. I'd look at trends. Arroyo hit a wall in 2005, and that affected his game. but his IP has gone up 3 years straight. He's trending towards being a better pitcher, not a worse one. The comparison to Pavano makes no sense as Pavano didn't throw a pitch in the bigs last year.

[RedsManRick]

Here's another perspective:

Would you trade Carl Pavano for Philip Hughes? He had a GREAT year in 2004 in the NL, better than anything that Bronson Arroyo has done. But he was mediocre in the AL in 2005.

One could argue that if you wanted to win the World Series and you were an NL team, Carl Pavano would be a better choice than Homer Bailey because Homer Bailey is not a major league pitcher yet and Carl Pavano is.

So would you make a Carl Pavano for Homer Bailey trade?

Arroyo 2006
240.2 IP
3.29 ERA
1.188 WHIP
184 K
14-11 W/L
1.153 Park Factor for Runs (1st in MLB) -- 3.06 adjusted ERA


Pavano 2004:
222.1 IP
3.00 ERA
1.174 WHIP
139 K
18-8 W/L
.898 Park Factor for Runs (27th in MLB) -- 3.16 adjusted ERA

So when you adjust for park factors, the only thing Pavano did better was have a very slightly better WHIP and won more games. If you want to argue that wins are a good indicator of pitcher performance, Bert Blyleven and Nolan Ryan say hello.

[cmaff05]

Arroyo 2006
240.2 IP
3.29 ERA
1.188 WHIP
184 K
14-11 W/L
1.153 Park Factor for Runs (1st in MLB) -- 3.06 adjusted ERA


Pavano 2004:
222.1 IP
3.00 ERA
1.174 WHIP
139 K
18-8 W/L
.898 Park Factor for Runs (27th in MLB) -- 3.16 adjusted ERA

So when you adjust for park factors, the only thing Pavano did better was have a very slightly better WHIP and won more games. If you want to argue that wins are a good indicator of pitcher performance, Bert Blyleven and Nolan Ryan say hello.

Who's arguing wins here exactly? I never brought up that conversation. Pavano had a lower ERA. Pavano's 2004 and Arroyo's 2006 were both outliers on their careers as a hole. The only difference is that Arroyo is a workhorse and Pavano is always injured.

[TRF]

Who's arguing wins here exactly? I never brought up that conversation. Pavano had a lower ERA. Pavano's 2004 and Arroyo's 2006 were both outliers on their careers as a hole. The only difference is that Arroyo is a workhorse and Pavano is always injured.

big difference

[cmaff05]

How about that Pavano didn't throw a pitch in the majors last year? Or is that not part of the criteria?

Of course it's in the criteria.

But the fact that you would think Brian Cashman would ever want to trade Phillip Hughes for Bronson Arroyo or would even entertain that thought without hanging up makes me think that you are a dumbass and quite frankly makes alot of Reds fans look pretty bad.

[TRF]

Of course it's in the criteria.

But the fact that you would think Brian Cashman would ever want to trade Phillip Hughes for Bronson Arroyo makes me think that you are a dumbass and quite frankly makes alot of Reds fans look pretty bad.

And here I was just about to suggest you stick around. We like viewpoints from fans of other teams. This isn't a talk smack board, it's a discussion board.

Learn the difference or go somewhere else.

[RedsManRick]

Who's arguing wins here exactly? I never brought up that conversation. Pavano had a lower ERA. Pavano's 2004 and Arroyo's 2006 were both outliers on their careers as a hole. The only difference is that Arroyo is a workhorse and Pavano is always injured.

"(Pavano) had a GREAT year in 2004 in the NL, better than anything that Bronson Arroyo has done"

This was wrong. I was simply showing it.

[M2]

Um, no offense, but there is an awful lot of hype going around for Homer Bailey.

You are 100% correct. It goes back to the old adage that there's no such thing as a pitching prospect. Hughes and Bailey will probably be top 10 prospects on the BA list, but that's hardly the Good Housekeeping seal of immediate greatness. Here's the pitchers who've made the BA top 10 over the previous four years:

Jesse Foppert (#5, 2003) - Came up in 2003, struggled and then blew up his arm.
Jose Contreras (#6, 2003) - Cuban veteran who's managed only one notably good campaign as a starter in four major league seasons.
Gavin Floyd (#9, 2003) - So far has a 6.96 ERA in 108.2 IP. The Phillies decided to trade him this offseason as part of a package for an established pitcher (Freddy Garcia).
Francisco Rodriguez (#10, 2003) - Elite closer, though he'd already come up and dominated in the postseason before he received this ranking.
Edwin Jackson (#4, 2004) - 5.48 ERA in 111.2 IP. The Dodgers dealt him last year to the Devil Rays as part of a package for Danys Baez and Lance Carter.
Greg Miller (#8, 2004) - Blew out his arm before the 2004 season, currently trying to resurrect his career with mixed results.
Felix Hernandez (#2, 2005) - Brilliant 2005 debut (84.1 IP), struggled in 2006.
Scott Kazmir (#7, 2006) - Solid rookie season in 2005, looked like he was taking a big step forward in 2006, but a shoulder injury ended his season after 24 starts. Supposedly he'll be ready for spring training.
Francisco Liriano (#6, 2006) - Superhuman debut last season, but felled by serious arm injuries. Will miss all of 2007.
Chad Billingsley (#7, 2006) - Mixed results in 2006 debut -- good ERA, lacked control.
Justin Verlander (#8, 2006) - 2006 AL Rookie of the Year, looks like the next big thing.
Matt Cain (#9, 2006) - Had a solid 2006 rookie campaign (190.2 IP, 4.15 ERA) thanks to a 2nd half surge. Working through control issues.

Injuries and bouts with ineffectiveness loom in pretty much every pitcher's future, even the studs.

[Rocket22]

OK, as a Yankees fan I see this arguement and have read a lot of articles like this and I have never seen Bailey pitch, but I have seen Hughes pitch in his Playoff game this past September in AA. Hughes has nasty stuff, I know Bailey has nasty stuff too and may actually have better stuff, so you could even give the edge to Bailey if you would like. What sets the two apart, IMO, is control. Hughes has never had a WHIP over 1.00 and Bailey has not had a WHIP under 1.00. Bailey has walked twice as many batters per nine innings (4.07-2.05) throughout their minor league career. The fact that Hughes such amazing control Already makes him the better pitcher and prospect at this point and time.

And health is not nearly the issue some people make it out to be. The Yankees shut him down early because they knew the gem they had in Hughes and did not want to push anything with him so early and at such a young age. This season the Yanks plan to let Hughes loose, which is pretty scary for opposing batters.

[lollipopcurve]

And health is not nearly the issue some people make it out to be. The Yankees shut him down early because they knew the gem they had in Hughes and did not want to push anything with him so early and at such a young age. This season the Yanks plan to let Hughes loose, which is pretty scary for opposing batters.

Hughes had some arm issues in 2005, more so than in 06. He only threw 85 innings in 05 -- I can't remember what the issue was -- I'm guessing elbow -- but I believe he was shut down for quite a while. Obviously it's not a major concern at the moment, but there's no doubt you'd rather see less of that in a pitcher's past than more, which is where the edge currently goes to Bailey.

[Bigredfan#1]

No matter what I read, I just can't get rid of the feeling in my stomach that Homer Bailey = Kerry Wood v2.0. He's gonna come up, dominate, get injured, and fall off the map in the course of about 4 years.

One difference might be that Wood's motion was not
best and most believe that this has caused much of his problems. I have not read anything negative about Bailey's motion!

[Rocket22]

Hughes had some arm issues in 2005, more so than in 06. He only threw 85 innings in 05 -- I can't remember what the issue was -- I'm guessing elbow -- but I believe he was shut down for quite a while. Obviously it's not a major concern at the moment, but there's no doubt you'd rather see less of that in a pitcher's past than more, which is where the edge currently goes to Bailey.

Of course you would like to see no sort of setback, but the Yankees put him to the shelf because they did not want to risk anything. Hughes was diagnosed with a Slight case of tendonitis. Nothing serious at all, just the Yankees babying their top prospect at the time.

Pitching wise, Hughes has the edge. They both have NASTY stuff, Bailey's may even be a Little better, but the fact that Hughes the unbelievable control already to go with his great stuff has to make him the better Pitcher right now.

[Rocket22]

One difference might be that Wood's motion was not
best and most believe that this has caused much of his problems. I have not read anything negative about Bailey's motion!

Wood's injuries definitely had to do with his pitching motion.

[Superdude]

They both have NASTY stuff, Bailey's may even be a Little better

They both have NASTY stuff, Bailey's definitely a Little better. Although I do agree about Hughes currently being the better pitcher.