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Thread: Milton did pitch well last year...yes...he did.

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    Member Eric_Davis's Avatar
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    Milton did pitch well last year...yes...he did.

    Well, you made me look it up.

    Milton did pitch well last year and deserves to be our #3 starter this year.

    In his 14 quality starts last year he had an ERA of 3.00.....yes, Eric Milton pitched 14 quality starts where he had a combined era of 3.00.

    What's more, he had only 14 walks in those 14 games, an average of 1 walk per game....impecable control. He added 53 strikeouts.

    His record in those games was 7-3 w/ 4 No-decisions.

    Throw every stat in the world out the window that you want to try to use to slam this guy, but you can't take away the fact that he pitched 14 quality games. That's not an easy task.

    It's been mentioned that he's left in too long sometimes, inferring that in a 6th inning and later situation he gets shelled. However, that never happened once last year. If he didn't have it, he didn't get a chance to complete 6 innings.

    There's so many misconceptions on this board surrounding Milton's ability to pitch. He pitches a lot better than people think that he does.

    It's also been mentioned that REDS' fans opinions are skewered by his salary, and this must be the case because here are his 14 quality starts from last year:

    Inn Pitch......ER.......Result......BB.....K

    .....8...........1...........L...........0......9
    .....7.2........2...........W...........0......1
    .....7...........0...........W..........0......3
    .....7...........2...........W..........2......3
    .....7...........2...........L...........0......4
    .....7...........3...........L...........1......5
    .....7...........3...........W..........2......3
    .....6.2........2...........W..........2......5
    .....6.2........3..........ND..........0......3
    .....6...........0..........ND..........0......2
    .....6...........1...........W..........4......3
    .....6...........3...........W..........1......4
    .....6...........3..........ND..........2......6
    .....6...........3..........ND..........2......2

    I'll take those again from a #3 pitcher...hopefully he gets 4, 5, or 6 more of those. If he blows up in the other ones,...oh well. BTW, he also had one game with 5 innings and 1 ER, another with 5 innings and 2 ER, and another with 5-1/3 and 3 ER.

    So, out of 25 starts he had 14 true quality starts and 3 other good ones, and that includes the 1/3 of an inning he pitched when he gave up 6 ER's, where he was shut down on Sept 17.

    That translates to a 3.08 ERA in 17 of his 25 starts. I'd say that gives your team a good chance to win games.

    I'm glad we have him.

    Try cheering for him and he might even do better.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

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    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: Milton did pitch well last year...yes...he did.

    Go Milton! Now you can do better! Because I am cheering for you!

    YEA, Milton!

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    Re: Milton did pitch well last year...yes...he did.

    Good. So he pitched well half the games, then like garbage the rest.

    EDIT: I counted 9 games that he was near worthless.
    EDIT: I counted 9 games that Aaron Harang was near worthless for as well. Only 5 for Arroyo.
    Last edited by TOBTTReds; 01-26-2007 at 03:54 PM.

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    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Milton did pitch well last year...yes...he did.

    Oh boy. Get your helmets on, boys.
    The Rally Onion wants 150 fans before Opening Day.

    http://www.facebook.com/pages/Rally-...24872650873160

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    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Milton did pitch well last year...yes...he did.

    Milton cannot stay healthy. He cannot change the type of pitcher he is (flyball pitcher).

    He is not a good pitcher.
    Suck it up cupcake.

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    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: Milton did pitch well last year...yes...he did.

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Milton cannot stay healthy. He cannot change the type of pitcher he is (flyball pitcher).

    He is not a good pitcher.
    Not even if you cheer for him, TRF? If only you and I and everyone pulls together and tries cheering for him, he will become a good pitcher! I just know he will!

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    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Milton did pitch well last year...yes...he did.

    If I tried cheering for him I'd develop my own degenerative knee problem.

    I generally try to root for guys that don't suck. Of course it's my opinion on who does suck (Milton, Saarloos) and who doesn't.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  9. #8
    Member Reds Fanatic's Avatar
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    Re: Milton did pitch well last year...yes...he did.

    You can make anyone look good if you only count their quality starts.

    Take a look at these 7 starts from Milton
    4 1/3 IP, 9 ER
    4 1/3 IP, 6 ER
    5 1/3 IP, 6 ER
    6 1/3 IP, 5 ER
    7 IP, 7 ER
    4 IP, 6 ER
    1/3 IP, 6 ER

    So basically on any night with Milton you can get an ok start or a total disaster. On any other team he would not be near a #3 starter.

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    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: Milton did pitch well last year...yes...he did.

    It's fun to do with Dave Williams too. If you narrow the sample size, he was the second coming of Cy Young...

  11. #10
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Milton did pitch well last year...yes...he did.

    On any other team he'd be non-tendered.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  12. #11
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Milton did pitch well last year...yes...he did.

    Re: Milton did not pitch well last year....no.....he didn't (i corrected a few typos in the title)

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_Davis View Post
    Throw every stat in the world out the window that you want to try to use to slam this guy
    Or you could throw out all of the bad innings to justify your position that he's good. Oh wait, you pretty much just did.....

    :all_cohol

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_Davis View Post
    but you can't take away the fact that he pitched 14 quality games. That's not an easy task.
    QS is a lousy metric for evaluating a pitcher pretty much for the same reasons that ERA is a deficient metric....

    I posted this a while back in a thread but it's on target here:

    2006 MLB Starter Averages: K/9: 6.27; BB/9: 3.05; HR/9: 1.14; HR/FB: 11.0; FIP: 4.60; ERA: 4.61;

    Now compare that to Milton and his extreme fly ball tendencies.

    Milton:
    2002: K/9: 6.37; BB/9: 1.58; HR/9: 1.26; FB%: 45.8; HR/FB: 9.6; LOB%: 63.8; FIP: 4.19; ERA: 4.84; IP: 171;
    2003: K/9: 3.71; BB/9: .53; HR/9: 1.06; FB%: 51.2; HR/FB: 7.4; LOB%: 83.3; FIP: 4.08; ERA: 2.65; IP: 17;
    2004: K/9: 7.21; BB/9: 3.36; HR/9: 1.93; FB%: 52.5; HR/FB: 13.5; LOB%: 76.5; FIP: 5.51; ERA: 4.75; IP: 201;
    2005: K/9: 5.94; BB/9: 2.51; HR/9: 1.94; FB%: 46.5; HR/FB: 13.9; LOB%: 64.6; FIP: 5.37; ERA: 6.47; IP: 186;
    2006: K/9: 5.31; BB/9: 2.48; HR/9: 1.71; FB%: 50.3; HR/FB: 11.9; LOB%: 68.5; FIP: 5.35; ERA: 5.19; IP: 153;

    Milton has not been a good pitcher since his injury in 2003. He basically was aided by an unsustainable LOB% during his rebound/contract year that masked his decline. Unfortunately, the Reds are now paying the price. Telling it like it is, Milton is a $9M a year replacement level starter. Miltonís production is easy to replace (E. Ramirez would do it for close to league minimum) and at this point there is no reason to expect him to have a turn around type of year. He stunk in Philadelphia and he stinks as a Red.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  13. #12
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Milton did pitch well last year...yes...he did.

    My problem with Milton as stated elsewhere, I think that when he doesn't give you a quality start, he often is completely blowing the game. What's his record in non-QS compared to say Harang & Arroyo?

    7 IP & 4 ER won't show up as a QS in the box, but it gives your team a decent chance to win. I think -- I HAVE NOT CHECKED -- that we are getting more "fair" starts from other pitchers than we are from Milton. Sometimes a pitcher wins you the game, sometimes he keeps you in it, and sometimes he loses it. Let's not just count that middle category - cause the other two matter quite a bit and separate not only the Oswalts from the Harangs, but Harangs from Miltons, and Miltons from Mays'.

    I'm willing to ignore ERA when it's inflated by 2 complete blow ups despite a lot of good starts. There is something to be said for giving your team a chance on a regular basis. Milton can be a very solid pitcher at times. So my question is, what kind of pitcher is he when he's not very good? When he's not winning games himself does he still put us in a spot to have a chance? And how many games is he basically winning by himself when the offense doesn't show up?

    A quick glance shows a lot of quality starts which are on the poor end of the quality start scale.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 01-26-2007 at 04:28 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  14. #13
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Milton did pitch well last year...yes...he did.

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds Fanatic View Post
    You can make anyone look good if you only count their quality starts.
    Exactly. Juan Castro is also the greatest hitter in history if all you count is every time he gets a hit.

    Though, without checking, I'd guess that 3.00 is a fairly bad ERA for what a pitcher accomplished in his good starts. Ian Snell on the Pirates, whom no one in the known universe accused of pitching particularly well last year, also had 14 quality starts and he posted a 1.85 ERA in those games. Does that make him a #2 pitcher or perhaps even an ace?
    Last edited by M2; 01-26-2007 at 04:41 PM.
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    Kmac5 KoryMac5's Avatar
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    Re: Milton did pitch well last year...yes...he did.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    Oh boy. Get your helmets on, boys.
    INCOMING :milton:

  16. #15
    REDSBROWNSBUCKEYES
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    Re: Milton did pitch well last year...yes...he did.

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    If I tried cheering for him I'd develop my own degenerative knee problem.

    I generally try to root for guys that don't suck. Of course it's my opinion on who does suck (Milton, Saarloos) and who doesn't.
    Im not going to go out and say that Miltons a top of the rotation type of guy( he's far from it ) but you have to admit when he is healthy he keeps you in the game. If the bullpen can become somewhat reliable to the point where Milton can leave in the fifth inning on a regular basis, I think he can be very helpfull to this ball club. Now the only trick is getting Narron to realize his limitations as well.


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